Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>On Friday, Toshiba investors got two bits of news which have been taken as non-bullish.</li>
<li>Affiliate and former subsidiary <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kioxia" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29243:1" rel="noopener">Kioxia (6600 JP)</a> announced it would cut wafer input volume by 30% starting in October, and Toshiba's announcement on the Privatisation process status implied some delay.</li>
<li>Today the shares are getting hit vs Peers. It's still a problem of lots of moving parts. </li>
</ul>


On Friday, Toshiba investors got two bits of news which have been taken as non-bullish.
Affiliate and former subsidiary Kioxia (6600 JP) announced it would cut wafer input volume by 30% starting in October, and Toshiba's announcement on the Privatisation process status implied some delay.
Today the shares are getting hit vs Peers. It's still a problem of lots of moving parts. 


<ul>
<li>Three interviews and comments by Senior Toshiba Boardmembers (chairperson and head of Special Committee) and the CEO prep the ground for a full company deal, or no deal.</li>
<li>If no deal, there's downside to the 5yr average Toshiba/Peers ratio. If you see 50% deal probability, at mid ¥6000s or better, IRRs are OK. But there is jump risk.</li>
<li>I don't see the activists just deciding to bail en masse if no deal. I think they take it further, which means I think the Board wants a deal.</li>
</ul>


Three interviews and comments by Senior Toshiba Boardmembers (chairperson and head of Special Committee) and the CEO prep the ground for a full company deal, or no deal.
If no deal, there's downside to the 5yr average Toshiba/Peers ratio. If you see 50% deal probability, at mid ¥6000s or better, IRRs are OK. But there is jump risk.
I don't see the activists just deciding to bail en masse if no deal. I think they take it further, which means I think the Board wants a deal.


Toshiba (6502 JP) Getting Closer to Crunch Time So Ongoing News "Leaks" Likely

Index Rebal Trades & Special Situations, Quiddity Advisors

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Index Rebal Trades & Special Situations

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>The September 2022 index changes for DAX, MDAX, SDAX, and TecDAX were announced late last night.</li>
<li>There is one change for the DAX Index, four changes for the MDAX Index, seven changes for the SDAX Index, and two changes for the TecDAX Index.</li>
<li>In this insight, we take a closer look at our expectations for index flows and potential trading ideas.</li>
</ul>


The September 2022 index changes for DAX, MDAX, SDAX, and TecDAX were announced late last night.
There is one change for the DAX Index, four changes for the MDAX Index, seven changes for the SDAX Index, and two changes for the TecDAX Index.
In this insight, we take a closer look at our expectations for index flows and potential trading ideas.


DAX, MDAX, SDAX, TecDAX Sep 2022 Rebal: Large Impacts Only for Hella & Stabilius

Covering IPOs, Healthcare and Technology Stocks

Andrei Zakharov

Algosun Global

Private Capital Markets

Fat Projects Acquisition Corp / Private Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>Avanseus Holdings plans to go public in partnership with <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/fat-projects-acquisition-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:34628:1" rel="noopener">Fat Projects Acquisition Corp (FATP US)</a> The combined company is expected to trade on the Nasdaq under a new ticker symbol.</li>
<li>Fat Projects Acquisition Corp. values the combined companies at a pro forma EV of $135.7M. SPAC is focused on tech-led businesses in Southeast Asia and closed its IPO in 2021.   </li>
<li>Avanseus Holdings needs to access the capital markets to raise money and expand into new countries and industries, invest in R&amp;D and launch new products.</li>
</ul>


Avanseus Holdings plans to go public in partnership with Fat Projects Acquisition Corp (FATP US) The combined company is expected to trade on the Nasdaq under a new ticker symbol.
Fat Projects Acquisition Corp. values the combined companies at a pro forma EV of $135.7M. SPAC is focused on tech-led businesses in Southeast Asia and closed its IPO in 2021.   
Avanseus Holdings needs to access the capital markets to raise money and expand into new countries and industries, invest in R&amp;D and launch new products.


Avanseus: A Singapore-Based Startup and Provider of AI-Based Predictive Maintenance Software

<ul>
<li>Overnight, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/toshiba-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:637:1" rel="noopener">Toshiba Corp (6502 JP)</a> has released an <a href="https://www.global.toshiba/content/dam/toshiba/ww/ir/corporate/news/20220719_2.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">update</a> "Progress Report on Discussions with Potential Investors and Sponsors. Four advance to the second round, including both PE and strategic investors.  </li>
<li>Nikkei <a href="https://asia.nikkei.com/Spotlight/Toshiba-in-turmoil/Japan-Industrial-Partners-Bain-advance-in-bidding-for-Toshiba" target="_blank" rel="noopener">reported</a> those advancing were Bain, CVC, Brookfield, and JIP-JIC. Blackstone did not advance. Yesterday, Reuters reported that KKR had declined to bid, but might join another bid.</li>
<li>Now parties will start due diligence, and Toshiba will examine bids for "measures to enhance corporate value" and certainty of execution (given national security-sensitive issues, and funding). </li>
</ul>


Overnight, Toshiba Corp (6502 JP) has released an update "Progress Report on Discussions with Potential Investors and Sponsors. Four advance to the second round, including both PE and strategic investors.  
Nikkei reported those advancing were Bain, CVC, Brookfield, and JIP-JIC. Blackstone did not advance. Yesterday, Reuters reported that KKR had declined to bid, but might join another bid.
Now parties will start due diligence, and Toshiba will examine bids for "measures to enhance corporate value" and certainty of execution (given national security-sensitive issues, and funding). 


Toshiba (6502) Update - Shares Down Since Last Look, "News" Isn't Really. IRR Grid.

Germany

Siemens AG is an engineering and manufacturing company. The Company focuses on areas of electrification, automation, and digitalization. Siemens also provides engineering solutions in automation and control, power, transportation, and medical diagnosis.

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Siemens (SIE GR)

Two Bits of Non-Bullish Toshiba News

Toshiba's possible deal timeline extended just as semi sector troubles start to make themselves better-known. Not bullish. But not hugely bearish....

Travis Lundy

Toshiba (6502 JP) Getting Closer to Crunch Time So Ongoing News "Leaks" Likely

Bidders are approaching 2nd Round deadlines, and news/comments are starting to seep out. Expect more. I expect a decision at/after H1 results. If...

Travis Lundy

DAX, MDAX, SDAX, TecDAX Sep 2022 Rebal: Large Impacts Only for Hella & Stabilius

Hella and Stabilus are likely to see large positive impacts but the other candidates generally have small impacts and small flow sizes.

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Avanseus: A Singapore-Based Startup and Provider of AI-Based Predictive Maintenance Software

Avanseus, innovative Singapore-based startup, plans to go public via business combination with SPAC. The company sells AI-based predictive...

Andrei Zakharov

Toshiba (6502) Update - Shares Down Since Last Look, "News" Isn't Really. IRR Grid.

Toshiba (6502) is -8% vs Peer Basket after the late June pop on a "¥7,000 deal." Semi/memory peers weaker while industrials better. That lifts IRR...

Travis Lundy

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