Global Mobility/Transport, Equity Long-Short

Mo Aziz

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Record FY26 operating profit of S$2.4bn (+39% YoY) masks 57% net profit drop — on Air India equity losses and Vistara one-off, core net profit fell just 30% to S$1.2bn.</li>
<li>Total FY26 DPS of 37 cents (yield ~5.9%) beats expectations — includes S$0.10/share special dividend; Board committed to 10¢ special DPS in FY27F and FY28F.</li>
<li>FY27F is the real test: full-year Air India equity losses (~S$800m) + lagged fuel cost spike from Middle East conflict will hit hard. Best to stay on sidelines for now. </li>
</ul>


Record FY26 operating profit of S$2.4bn (+39% YoY) masks 57% net profit drop — on Air India equity losses and Vistara one-off, core net profit fell just 30% to S$1.2bn.
Total FY26 DPS of 37 cents (yield ~5.9%) beats expectations — includes S$0.10/share special dividend; Board committed to 10¢ special DPS in FY27F and FY28F.
FY27F is the real test: full-year Air India equity losses (~S$800m) + lagged fuel cost spike from Middle East conflict will hit hard. Best to stay on sidelines for now. 


Singapore Airlines: Did Very Well in FY26, but FY27 Will Be Much Tougher

Asian Insight Provider - Actionable ideas, CrossASEAN Research

Henry Soediarko

Asian Insight Provider - Actionable ideas

CrossASEAN Research

At CrossASEAN Research we strive to produce unbiased and differentiated on the ground insights on companies across South East Asia. Our Research is produced for the most part after face to face meetings and conversations with company management to dig deep into the long term vision and strategy of the companies we cover. We seek to deliver investable and actionable themes on sectors and markets across SE Asia, often in collaboration with other Insight Providers across the region, pooling the vast experience of the analysts within the Smartkarma Ecosystem. We also offer bespoke work and tailor made trips for our clients. 

Insights across South East Asia

<ul>
<li>Air India recent capital calls for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/singapore-airlines-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:74:1" rel="noopener">Singapore Airlines (SIA SP)</a> to top its investment is not a one off event, there may be more to come. </li>
<li>SIA share price performance YTD has outshone most of its peers despite difficult environment that everyone has to endure. </li>
<li>Air India remains a great investment opportunity in the longer term but in the near term it does not look positive. </li>
</ul>


Air India recent capital calls for Singapore Airlines (SIA SP) to top its investment is not a one off event, there may be more to come. 
SIA share price performance YTD has outshone most of its peers despite difficult environment that everyone has to endure. 
Air India remains a great investment opportunity in the longer term but in the near term it does not look positive. 


Singapore Air (SIA): Cash Call Is Not a One off Event

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/avepoint-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:37131:1" rel="noopener">AvePoint (AVPT US)</a> , a global provider of data security, governance, and resilience, aims to raise around US$300m in its Singapore secondary listing.</li>
<li>As of FY24, AP had over 25,000 customers who rely on its Confidence Platform to prepare, secure, and optimize their critical data across environments.</li>
<li>In this note, we look at its past performance and other deal dynamics that might impact the listing.</li>
</ul>



AvePoint (AVPT US) , a global provider of data security, governance, and resilience, aims to raise around US$300m in its Singapore secondary listing.
As of FY24, AP had over 25,000 customers who rely on its Confidence Platform to prepare, secure, and optimize their critical data across environments.
In this note, we look at its past performance and other deal dynamics that might impact the listing.


AvePoint SGX Secondary Listing - Strong Growth and Large Client Base but Unclear Metrics

Founder & Managing Director, AIR Control Tower, AIR Control Tower

Neil Glynn

Founder & Managing Director, AIR Control Tower

AIR Control Tower

AIR Control Tower is an independent research and analysis platform. Its mission is to provide impactful insight and analysis across the global airline industry at a company and market level via detailed financial models to aid decision making for key stake holders at a time when risks have seldom, if ever, been higher and the global sector grapples with the imperative of funding de-carbonisation. Unique analysis forecasting global carrier-level earnings/cash flows, and restructuring/de-leveraging prospects, is designed to dynamically assess the health of the industry, predict surprises and identify potential requirements for third party support.

Insights on the global airline industry

<ul>
<li>We publish a detailed update on the APAC airline sector, featuring ANA, Cathay Pacific, JAL, Korean Air, Qantas and Singapore Airlines, addressing cargo yield normalisation, and unit cost inflation.</li>
<li>We see 24% upside to consensus EBITDAR for JAL in FY24 to March 2024, and 24% downside risk at Singapore Airlines based on our detailed analysis and quarterly earnings bridges.</li>
<li>We expect earnings at most carriers to decline in calendar 2024 versus 2023 as the combination of cargo yield normalisation, fuel price pressure, and further capacity restoration prompt margin declines.</li>
</ul>


We publish a detailed update on the APAC airline sector, featuring ANA, Cathay Pacific, JAL, Korean Air, Qantas and Singapore Airlines, addressing cargo yield normalisation, and unit cost inflation.
We see 24% upside to consensus EBITDAR for JAL in FY24 to March 2024, and 24% downside risk at Singapore Airlines based on our detailed analysis and quarterly earnings bridges.
We expect earnings at most carriers to decline in calendar 2024 versus 2023 as the combination of cargo yield normalisation, fuel price pressure, and further capacity restoration prompt margin declines.


APAC Airline Sector – Cost Inflation Management Differentials Crucial as Cargo Yields Normalise

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Jet fuel price has declined in the past two months and is 20% lower than the September peak. Positive for airlines but we have yet to see any earnings upgrade   </li>
<li>All the Chines state carriers (Air China, China Eastern and China Southern) and Taiwan's EVA Airways are unhedged, benefiting the most from this lower fuel price trend </li>
<li>Worst off due to fuel hedge cover at higher than current market prices are Qantas Airways (75% hedged), Air New Zealand (54% hedged) and Japan Airlines (40% hedged)  </li>
</ul>


Jet fuel price has declined in the past two months and is 20% lower than the September peak. Positive for airlines but we have yet to see any earnings upgrade   
All the Chines state carriers (Air China, China Eastern and China Southern) and Taiwan's EVA Airways are unhedged, benefiting the most from this lower fuel price trend 
Worst off due to fuel hedge cover at higher than current market prices are Qantas Airways (75% hedged), Air New Zealand (54% hedged) and Japan Airlines (40% hedged)  


Lower Fuel Price, Which Asia Pacific Airline Benefits and Suffers the Most?

Singapore

Singapore Airlines is the flag carrier of Singapore, offering full-service international passenger and cargo air transportation. It operates a dual-brand strategy with its premium services and the low-cost carrier Scoot, serving numerous destinations globally. The company is headquartered in Airline House, Changi, Singapore, and was incorporated in 1972.

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Singapore Airlines (SIA SP)

Singapore Airlines: Did Very Well in FY26, but FY27 Will Be Much Tougher

SIA's record operating profit in FY26 masks significant net profit drop due to Air India equity losses and Vistara one-off, with FY27F posing...

Mo Aziz

Singapore Air (SIA): Cash Call Is Not a One off Event

Air India calls for Singapore Airlines to increase investment, signaling potential for more capital calls in the future. SIA's share price has...

Henry Soediarko

AvePoint SGX Secondary Listing - Strong Growth and Large Client Base but Unclear Metrics

AvePoint (AVPT US) , a global provider of data security, governance, and resilience, aims to raise around US$300m in its Singapore secondary listing.

Sumeet Singh

APAC Airline Sector – Cost Inflation Management Differentials Crucial as Cargo Yields Normalise

Deep dive on earnings prospects of the top tier ex-China APAC full service carriers illustrates marked differences in inflation management, and...

Neil Glynn

Lower Fuel Price, Which Asia Pacific Airline Benefits and Suffers the Most?

Jet fuel prices have been declining and this is good for airlines. The impact varies according to average flight length and fuel hedge exposure....

Mo Aziz

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Singapore Airlines: Did Very Well in FY26, but FY27 Will Be Much Tougher

​SIA's record operating profit in FY26 masks significant net profit drop due to Air India equity losses and Vistara one-off, with FY27F posing...

Mo Aziz

Singapore Air (SIA): Cash Call Is Not a One off Event

​Air India calls for Singapore Airlines to increase investment, signaling potential for more capital calls in the future. SIA's share price has...

Henry Soediarko

AvePoint SGX Secondary Listing - Strong Growth and Large Client Base but Unclear Metrics

AvePoint (AVPT US) , a global provider of data security, governance, and resilience, aims to raise around US$300m in its Singapore secondary listing.

Sumeet Singh

APAC Airline Sector – Cost Inflation Management Differentials Crucial as Cargo Yields Normalise

Deep dive on earnings prospects of the top tier ex-China APAC full service carriers illustrates marked differences in inflation management, and...

Neil Glynn

Lower Fuel Price, Which Asia Pacific Airline Benefits and Suffers the Most?

​Jet fuel prices have been declining and this is good for airlines. The impact varies according to average flight length and fuel hedge exposure....

Mo Aziz

SIA's record operating profit in FY26 masks significant net profit drop due to Air India equity losses and Vistara one-off, with FY27F posing...

Air India calls for Singapore Airlines to increase investment, signaling potential for more capital calls in the future. SIA's share price has...

Jet fuel prices have been declining and this is good for airlines. The impact varies according to average flight length and fuel hedge exposure....