Founder & Managing Director, AIR Control Tower, AIR Control Tower

Neil Glynn

Founder & Managing Director, AIR Control Tower

AIR Control Tower

AIR Control Tower is an independent research and analysis platform. Its mission is to provide impactful insight and analysis across the global airline industry at a company and market level via detailed financial models to aid decision making for key stake holders at a time when risks have seldom, if ever, been higher and the global sector grapples with the imperative of funding de-carbonisation. Unique analysis forecasting global carrier-level earnings/cash flows, and restructuring/de-leveraging prospects, is designed to dynamically assess the health of the industry, predict surprises and identify potential requirements for third party support.

Insights on the global airline industry

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>We cut our SIA operating profit by 9% to S$2.6bn in FY24 and by 17% to S$1.5bn in FY25 versus consensus of S$2.1bn.</li>
<li>SIA's cost control is under-examined and we publish a deep dive on a concerning level of inflation relative to key peers, which actually escalated in 3Q24.</li>
<li>Cargo broke even in peak season, and Scoot's margins present a conundrum as it may need to be further utilization to help SIA with cost management.</li>
</ul>


We cut our SIA operating profit by 9% to S$2.6bn in FY24 and by 17% to S$1.5bn in FY25 versus consensus of S$2.1bn.
SIA's cost control is under-examined and we publish a deep dive on a concerning level of inflation relative to key peers, which actually escalated in 3Q24.
Cargo broke even in peak season, and Scoot's margins present a conundrum as it may need to be further utilization to help SIA with cost management.


Singapore Airlines – Onset of Earnings Normalization to Heighten Focus on Efficiency

Global Mobility/Transport, Equity Long-Short

Mohshin Aziz

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/singapore-airlines-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:74:1" rel="noopener">Singapore Airlines (SIA SP)</a> (SIA) November operating statistics were good, passenger load factor rose by 1.9ppt YoY to 87.8%, and cargo load factor rose by a similar quantum  </li>
<li>Market observations suggest yields should remain at high levels and cost items such as fuel and USD-denominated items on a favorable downtrend </li>
<li>If this performance continues, SIA will beat consensus easily. We recommend BUY with a TP of SGD8.07 - pegged to 10x FY24 PE. (+26% UPSIDE)  </li>
</ul>



Singapore Airlines (SIA SP) (SIA) November operating statistics were good, passenger load factor rose by 1.9ppt YoY to 87.8%, and cargo load factor rose by a similar quantum  
Market observations suggest yields should remain at high levels and cost items such as fuel and USD-denominated items on a favorable downtrend 
If this performance continues, SIA will beat consensus easily. We recommend BUY with a TP of SGD8.07 - pegged to 10x FY24 PE. (+26% UPSIDE)  


Singapore Airlines (SIA SP | BUY | SGD: 8.07): Nov' 2023 Op Stats, More Reason to Be Bullish

<ul>
<li>Following 2Q24 , our operating profit of S$2.9bn and a net profit of S$2.6bn, stand considerably higher than consensus of S$2.5bn and S$2.3bn respectively. </li>
<li>SIA’s continue to suffer more inflation than most peers (ex-Qantas). However, 1H24 illustrated that continued restoration of capacity is diluting pressure and narrowing the gap to peers.</li>
<li>The true test for SIA will be management of normalizing profitability beyond FY24. We model operating profit of S$1.8bn/net profit of S$1.5bn in FY25, versus consensus of S$1.5bn/S$1.2bn.</li>
</ul>


Following 2Q24 , our operating profit of S$2.9bn and a net profit of S$2.6bn, stand considerably higher than consensus of S$2.5bn and S$2.3bn respectively. 
SIA’s continue to suffer more inflation than most peers (ex-Qantas). However, 1H24 illustrated that continued restoration of capacity is diluting pressure and narrowing the gap to peers.
The true test for SIA will be management of normalizing profitability beyond FY24. We model operating profit of S$1.8bn/net profit of S$1.5bn in FY25, versus consensus of S$1.5bn/S$1.2bn.


Singapore Airlines: Further Positive Surprises to Come in 2H24 - Bigger Test in FY25

<ul>
<li>Dearth of international flights from Chinese and Russian carriers -- 2nd &amp; 3rd biggest global aviation market, will distort supply, underpins strong yields and profitability.  </li>
<li>SIA's cost management is superior thanks to high asset utilisation, stable SGD vs. the USD, and access to attractive financing.  SIA's competitors severely lack these attributes. </li>
<li>We forecast FY24 net profit of SGD2.4b (+13.1% YoY) and peg it to 10x PE to derive a TP of SGD8.07, +30% UPSIDE potential.  </li>
</ul>


Dearth of international flights from Chinese and Russian carriers -- 2nd &amp; 3rd biggest global aviation market, will distort supply, underpins strong yields and profitability.  
SIA's cost management is superior thanks to high asset utilisation, stable SGD vs. the USD, and access to attractive financing.  SIA's competitors severely lack these attributes. 
We forecast FY24 net profit of SGD2.4b (+13.1% YoY) and peg it to 10x PE to derive a TP of SGD8.07, +30% UPSIDE potential.  


Singapore Airlines: Supply Dislocations Will Underpin Strong Profits for Much Longer

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Temasek raised around US$300m via its secondary selldown in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/singapore-airlines-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:74:1" rel="noopener">Singapore Airlines (SIA SP)</a> in Jun 2023. The lockup from that placement will expire soon.</li>
<li>Temasek still owns over 50% of SIA and hence, any selldown might not come before SIA reports its 1H23/24 results in mid-Nov 2023.</li>
<li>In this note, we talk about the placement lockup dynamics.</li>
</ul>


Temasek raised around US$300m via its secondary selldown in Singapore Airlines (SIA SP) in Jun 2023. The lockup from that placement will expire soon.
Temasek still owns over 50% of SIA and hence, any selldown might not come before SIA reports its 1H23/24 results in mid-Nov 2023.
In this note, we talk about the placement lockup dynamics.


SIA Placement Lockup - Time for Another Trim of Its US$7bn Stake

Singapore

Singapore Airlines Limited provides air transportation, engineering, pilot training, air charter, and tour wholesaling services. The Company's airline operation covers Asia, Europe, the Americas, South West Pacific, and Africa.

Singapore Airlines (SIA SP)

Singapore Airlines – Onset of Earnings Normalization to Heighten Focus on Efficiency

Deep dive on SIA cost control, which is lagging key APAC peers, and journey to "normalised" earnings as capacity restoration continues.

Neil Glynn