HK/China Healthcare Analyst (ex-Fosun Pharma)

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Equity Capital Markets

Fujian Haixi Pharmaceuticals / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>Sales of generic drugs are the largest performance contributor. However, due to VBP and the price reduction, Haixi’s generic drug business may shrink and is hard to drive future growth.</li>
<li>Haixi’s valuation outlook would be mainly based on innovative drug pipeline. The primary goal is to address the issue of druggability of C019199. Haixi needs to provide convincing clinical data.</li>
<li>Valuation of Haixi was about RMB1.948 billion in 2022. Considering the VBP, R&amp;D failure risk of C019199, no licensing cooperation with MNCs, we think valuation could be lower than peers.  </li>
</ul>


Sales of generic drugs are the largest performance contributor. However, due to VBP and the price reduction, Haixi’s generic drug business may shrink and is hard to drive future growth.
Haixi’s valuation outlook would be mainly based on innovative drug pipeline. The primary goal is to address the issue of druggability of C019199. Haixi needs to provide convincing clinical data.
Valuation of Haixi was about RMB1.948 billion in 2022. Considering the VBP, R&amp;D failure risk of C019199, no licensing cooperation with MNCs, we think valuation could be lower than peers.  


Pre-IPO Fujian Haixi Pharmaceuticals - The Concerns on the Pipeline and the Outlook

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/beigene-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27352:1" rel="noopener">BeiGene (6160 HK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/zto-express-cayman-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:33488:1" rel="noopener">ZTO Express Cayman (2057 HK)</a> will replace <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sino-biopharmaceutical" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:230:1" rel="noopener">Sino Biopharmaceutical (1177 HK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/li-ning-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6047:1" rel="noopener">Li Ning (2331 HK)</a> in the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hang-seng-china-enterprises-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22900:1" rel="noopener">HSCEI INDEX</a> at the close on 7 March.</li>
<li>Estimated one-way turnover at the rebalance is 5% resulting in a round-trip trade of HK$6.4bn (US$825m). The final capping will use the close of trading on 4 March.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/zto-express-cayman-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:33488:1" rel="noopener">ZTO Express Cayman (2057 HK)</a> is also an inclusion to a global index with implementation scheduled for the close on 21 March.</li>
</ul>



BeiGene (6160 HK) and ZTO Express Cayman (2057 HK) will replace Sino Biopharmaceutical (1177 HK) and Li Ning (2331 HK) in the HSCEI INDEX at the close on 7 March.
Estimated one-way turnover at the rebalance is 5% resulting in a round-trip trade of HK$6.4bn (US$825m). The final capping will use the close of trading on 4 March.

ZTO Express Cayman (2057 HK) is also an inclusion to a global index with implementation scheduled for the close on 21 March.


HSCEI Index Rebalance: Beigene, ZTO Replace Sino Biopharma, Li Ning; Surprise for Some

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech, Aequitas Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Jiangsu Hengrui Medicine / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>Jiangsu Hengrui Medicine (600276 CH) a China-based pharmaceutical company, aims to raise around US$2bn in its H-share listing.</li>
<li>Given its similarity to Hong Kong-listed Hansoh Pharma, we think it is worth a comparison between the two.</li>
<li>Both companies are decent biopharma players and are trading at a premium to other pharmaceutical company peers. Upon comparison, we think Hengrui’s H should be at a premium to Hansoh.</li>
</ul>


Jiangsu Hengrui Medicine (600276 CH) a China-based pharmaceutical company, aims to raise around US$2bn in its H-share listing.
Given its similarity to Hong Kong-listed Hansoh Pharma, we think it is worth a comparison between the two.
Both companies are decent biopharma players and are trading at a premium to other pharmaceutical company peers. Upon comparison, we think Hengrui’s H should be at a premium to Hansoh.


Hengrui (恒瑞医药) A/H Listing: A Worthy Comparison with Hansoh Pharma

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Anhui Province will lead the first National biological drugs VBP in 2025. However, we are optimistic because we think the whole industry will start to bottom out from here.</li>
<li>EVER001 has the potential to become “a game changer” for membranous nephropathy treatment. We are waiting for Everest Medicines to reach licensing cooperation based on EVER001 in the future.</li>
<li>The real motivation for the Disposals of WuXi XDC shares could be to boost WuXi AppTec's stock price first so that the management can again reduce positions at high level.</li>
</ul>


Anhui Province will lead the first National biological drugs VBP in 2025. However, we are optimistic because we think the whole industry will start to bottom out from here.
EVER001 has the potential to become “a game changer” for membranous nephropathy treatment. We are waiting for Everest Medicines to reach licensing cooperation based on EVER001 in the future.
The real motivation for the Disposals of WuXi XDC shares could be to boost WuXi AppTec's stock price first so that the management can again reduce positions at high level.


China Healthcare Weekly (Jan.19)- WuXi AppTec Sells Shares in WuXi XDC, National Biological Drug VBP

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/beigene-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27352:1" rel="noopener">BeiGene</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/zto-express-cayman-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:33488:1" rel="noopener">ZTO Express Cayman</a> are potential inclusions for the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hang-seng-china-enterprises-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22900:1" rel="noopener">Hang Seng China Enterprises Index</a> in March while <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sino-biopharmaceutical" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:230:1" rel="noopener">Sino Biopharmaceutical</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/li-ning-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6047:1" rel="noopener">Li Ning</a> are potential deletions.</li>
<li>There is a lower probability of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/yum-china-holdings-inc-0533692c-6dae-4014-baa1-ed0b050638f2" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29259:1" rel="noopener">Yum China Holdings (9987 HK)</a> replacing <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sunny-optical-technology-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13363:1" rel="noopener">Sunny Optical Technology Group (2382 HK)</a> in the index in March.</li>
<li>There could be a few more index inclusions for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/zto-express-cayman-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:33488:1" rel="noopener">ZTO Express Cayman</a> in March and the stock could outperform its peers over the next few months.</li>
</ul>



BeiGene and ZTO Express Cayman are potential inclusions for the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index in March while Sino Biopharmaceutical and Li Ning are potential deletions.
There is a lower probability of Yum China Holdings (9987 HK) replacing Sunny Optical Technology Group (2382 HK) in the index in March.
There could be a few more index inclusions for ZTO Express Cayman in March and the stock could outperform its peers over the next few months.


HSCEI Index Rebalance Preview: Increase in Velocity Could Lead to 3 Changes in March

Hong Kong

Sino Biopharmaceutical Limited, through its subsidiaries, researches, develops, produces, and sells biopharmaceutical products for the medical treatment of ophthalmia, as well as modernized Chinese medicine and chemical medicine for the treatment of hepatitis.

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Sino Biopharmaceutical (1177 HK)

Pre-IPO Fujian Haixi Pharmaceuticals - The Concerns on the Pipeline and the Outlook

Generic drugs sales are key for Haixi's performance, but future growth will be hindered by VBP. Considering R&D failure risk of C019199, no...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

HSCEI Index Rebalance: Beigene, ZTO Replace Sino Biopharma, Li Ning; Surprise for Some

Beigene and ZTO Express replace Li Ning and Sino Biopharma in the index. Yum China misses out, so Sunny Optical stays in the index. ZTO Express is...

Brian Freitas

Hengrui (恒瑞医药) A/H Listing: A Worthy Comparison with Hansoh Pharma

China's Jiangsu Hengrui Medicine plans to raise $2bn in H-share listing. We did a worthy comparison between it and Hansoh Pharma.

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

China Healthcare Weekly (Jan.19)- WuXi AppTec Sells Shares in WuXi XDC, National Biological Drug VBP

Anhui to lead the national biological drug VBP, industry expected to rebound.EVER001 may be game changer for MN.Disposal of WuXi XDC shares may...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

HSCEI Index Rebalance Preview: Increase in Velocity Could Lead to 3 Changes in March

There could be up to 3 changes for the HSCEI in March. Estimated one-way turnover is 5.24% resulting in a round-trip trade of HK$5,276m (US$680m)....

Brian Freitas

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Pre-IPO Fujian Haixi Pharmaceuticals - The Concerns on the Pipeline and the Outlook

Generic drugs ​sales are key for Haixi's performance, but future growth will be hindered by VBP. Considering R&D failure risk of C019199, no...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

HSCEI Index Rebalance: Beigene, ZTO Replace Sino Biopharma, Li Ning; Surprise for Some

Beigene and ZTO Express replace Li Ning and Sino Biopharma in the index. Yum China misses out, so Sunny Optical stays in the index. ZTO Express is...

Brian Freitas

Hengrui (恒瑞医药) A/H Listing: A Worthy Comparison with Hansoh Pharma

​China's Jiangsu Hengrui Medicine plans to raise $2bn in H-share listing. We did a worthy comparison between it and Hansoh Pharma.

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

China Healthcare Weekly (Jan.19)- WuXi AppTec Sells Shares in WuXi XDC, National Biological Drug VBP

​Anhui to lead the national biological drug VBP, industry expected to rebound.EVER001 may be game changer for MN.Disposal of WuXi XDC shares may...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

HSCEI Index Rebalance Preview: Increase in Velocity Could Lead to 3 Changes in March

There could be up to 3 changes for the HSCEI in March. Estimated one-way turnover is 5.24% resulting in a round-trip trade of HK$5,276m (US$680m)....

Brian Freitas

Generic drugs sales are key for Haixi's performance, but future growth will be hindered by VBP. Considering R&D failure risk of C019199, no...

China's Jiangsu Hengrui Medicine plans to raise $2bn in H-share listing. We did a worthy comparison between it and Hansoh Pharma.

Anhui to lead the national biological drug VBP, industry expected to rebound.EVER001 may be game changer for MN.Disposal of WuXi XDC shares may...