HK/China Healthcare Analyst (ex-Fosun Pharma)

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>The 9th national VBP has begun. We analyzed the major big varieties with sales over RMB1 billion included in this VBP and the impact on related domestic pharmaceutical companies. </li>
<li>"Concept validation" of the business model of Chinese Biotech companies has been completed. Even under enormous pressure of medical insurance fee control policy, drug sales remain a reliable profit model.</li>
<li>Medlive's weak share price performance has a reason. The significant profitability increase in 23H1 wasn't from the improvement of main business. Its business model needs time to be further validated.</li>
</ul>


The 9th national VBP has begun. We analyzed the major big varieties with sales over RMB1 billion included in this VBP and the impact on related domestic pharmaceutical companies. 
"Concept validation" of the business model of Chinese Biotech companies has been completed. Even under enormous pressure of medical insurance fee control policy, drug sales remain a reliable profit model.
Medlive's weak share price performance has a reason. The significant profitability increase in 23H1 wasn't from the improvement of main business. Its business model needs time to be further validated.


China Healthcare Weekly (Sep.8)- 9th VBP, Reliable Profit Model of Biotech, Medlive, China's Outlook

Equity Analyst, Event-driven, Quiddity Advisors

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Equity Analyst, Event-driven

Quiddity Advisors

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>In three more weeks, the index changes and the indicative capping changes for the September 2023 rebalance will be officially announced. </li>
<li>We first looked at the potential HSCEI index changes and the resultant capping flows for September 2023 in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/quiddity-hscei-sep-23-flow-expectations-two-changes-likely-us-276mn-one-way" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:104329" rel="noopener">Quiddity HSCEI Sep 23 Flow Expectations: Two Changes Likely, US$276mn One-Way</a> </li>
<li>In this insight, we take a look at Quiddity's updated flow expectations which account for the changes in prices in the last ~1.5 months.</li>
</ul>


In three more weeks, the index changes and the indicative capping changes for the September 2023 rebalance will be officially announced. 
We first looked at the potential HSCEI index changes and the resultant capping flows for September 2023 in Quiddity HSCEI Sep 23 Flow Expectations: Two Changes Likely, US$276mn One-Way 
In this insight, we take a look at Quiddity's updated flow expectations which account for the changes in prices in the last ~1.5 months.


Quiddity HSCEI Sep 23 Flow Expectations Update: US$367mn One-Way, Beigene Vs Peers Interesting

<ul>
<li>In this insight, we take a look at some of the names with high likelihood of being involved in index changes for the Hang Seng Index in September 2023.</li>
<li>The index changes for the September 2023 rebalance could be announced in mid-August and implemented in early-September.</li>
<li>Although the index methodology is highly subjective and predicting index changes is extremely tricky, the HSI is an important index in the region and here are our thoughts for September. </li>
</ul>


In this insight, we take a look at some of the names with high likelihood of being involved in index changes for the Hang Seng Index in September 2023.
The index changes for the September 2023 rebalance could be announced in mid-August and implemented in early-September.
Although the index methodology is highly subjective and predicting index changes is extremely tricky, the HSI is an important index in the region and here are our thoughts for September. 


Quiddity Leaderboard for Hang Seng Index Sep 23: Beigene Vs Peers An Interesting Trade

Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>Vancocin/Ceclor/FPN are currently the “cash cow” for Edding, but they’re facing the challenges of generics, VBP and increasing competition. Their current market leading position may be lost in the future.</li>
<li>Edding seeks business transformation as its CSO model doesn’t work under domestic negative policies. But peak sales of three innovative drugs Vascepa/Mulpleta/EDP 125 may not reach the level of Vancocin/Ceclor.</li>
<li>Edding’s core advantage still lies in sales capabilities. Its R&amp;D capabilities have always been questioned. It’s unsure whether the market would give high valuation to a company without core competitiveness.</li>
</ul>


Vancocin/Ceclor/FPN are currently the “cash cow” for Edding, but they’re facing the challenges of generics, VBP and increasing competition. Their current market leading position may be lost in the future.
Edding seeks business transformation as its CSO model doesn’t work under domestic negative policies. But peak sales of three innovative drugs Vascepa/Mulpleta/EDP 125 may not reach the level of Vancocin/Ceclor.
Edding’s core advantage still lies in sales capabilities. Its R&amp;D capabilities have always been questioned. It’s unsure whether the market would give high valuation to a company without core competitiveness.


Pre-IPO Edding Group - CSO Model Is Hard to Sustain, but Business Transformation Faces Challenges

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>In the absence of significant decline in total pharmaceutical expenditure,the most simple logic tells us if some companies/varieties suffer loss in VBP, it inevitably means other companies benefit from it. </li>
<li>For innovative drugs, imported drugs have clear advantage over domestic drugs in both absolute and relative increments. But leading MNCs have been more impacted by VBP in recent years.</li>
<li>In this hundreds-of-billion-level payment transfer process, companies are actually competing to provide real clinical value, which is the key to fill the gap caused by VBP and restore companies’ growth.</li>
</ul>


In the absence of significant decline in total pharmaceutical expenditure,the most simple logic tells us if some companies/varieties suffer loss in VBP, it inevitably means other companies benefit from it. 
For innovative drugs, imported drugs have clear advantage over domestic drugs in both absolute and relative increments. But leading MNCs have been more impacted by VBP in recent years.
In this hundreds-of-billion-level payment transfer process, companies are actually competing to provide real clinical value, which is the key to fill the gap caused by VBP and restore companies’ growth.


China's VBP Policy for Pharmaceuticals – Misunderstandings, Real Impacts, and Outlook

Hong Kong

Sino Biopharmaceutical Limited, through its subsidiaries, researches, develops, produces, and sells biopharmaceutical products for the medical treatment of ophthalmia, as well as modernized Chinese medicine and chemical medicine for the treatment of hepatitis.

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Sino Biopharmaceutical (1177 HK)

China Healthcare Weekly (Sep.8)- 9th VBP, Reliable Profit Model of Biotech, Medlive, China's Outlook

9th national VBP has begun. We analyzed the impact on companies. 23H1 reports make us realize even with negative policy, China Biotech can still...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Quiddity HSCEI Sep 23 Flow Expectations Update: US$367mn One-Way, Beigene Vs Peers Interesting

I see BeiGene Ltd (6160 HK) as a high conviction ADD and Country Garden Services Holdings (6098 HK) as a high conviction DEL. Separately, I see...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Quiddity Leaderboard for Hang Seng Index Sep 23: Beigene Vs Peers An Interesting Trade

Hang Seng Index Sep 23 index changes and indicative weights could be published after the close on Friday 18th August 2023. The Hang Seng Index...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Pre-IPO Edding Group - CSO Model Is Hard to Sustain, but Business Transformation Faces Challenges

As once a leading CSO company in China, Edding’s core advantage still lies in sales capabilities. But changes in domestic policy/business...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

China's VBP Policy for Pharmaceuticals – Misunderstandings, Real Impacts, and Outlook

The money saved in some drugs due to VBP will help expand the sales of other drugs,which we call “payment transfer”.Before being pessimistic about...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

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