Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

iShares MSCI Emerging Markets / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>In our prior EM Strategy (October 2) we discussed that as long as EEM-US is above our important line-in-the-sand at $37, we were buyers on the pullback.</li>
<li>This support level held and EEM-US now displays a bullish 3-month downtrend reversal as the DXY appears to be breaking below $105.70, all bullish signals signaling additional upside-- buy.</li>
<li>We are bullish as long as $36.50-$37 support holds on EEM-US. Our first target is $42, which is 1.5+ year resistance. Remain overweight India, and we're upgrading Poland/Greece to overweight</li>
</ul>


In our prior EM Strategy (October 2) we discussed that as long as EEM-US is above our important line-in-the-sand at $37, we were buyers on the pullback.
This support level held and EEM-US now displays a bullish 3-month downtrend reversal as the DXY appears to be breaking below $105.70, all bullish signals signaling additional upside-- buy.
We are bullish as long as $36.50-$37 support holds on EEM-US. Our first target is $42, which is 1.5+ year resistance. Remain overweight India, and we're upgrading Poland/Greece to overweight


MSCI EM Index Reversing 3-Month Downtrend -- Buy. Remain Overweight India, Upgrading Poland & Greece

Oil & Natural Gas Corp / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>MSCI EM (EEM-US) continues to show signs of bottoming as it has held above our $37-$37.50 line-in-the-sand. </li>
<li>Major 1+ year resistance on the EEM-US is at $42, and a breakout would mean the bottom is in (and would be a buy signal).</li>
<li>Favor EM over EAFE due to 2.5-year downtrend reversal in the EAFE vs. EM ratio. Top Overweights: Taiwan, India, Greece; Attractive EM Sectors: Energy, Technology, Consumer Discretionary, Financials</li>
</ul>


MSCI EM (EEM-US) continues to show signs of bottoming as it has held above our $37-$37.50 line-in-the-sand. 
Major 1+ year resistance on the EEM-US is at $42, and a breakout would mean the bottom is in (and would be a buy signal).
Favor EM over EAFE due to 2.5-year downtrend reversal in the EAFE vs. EM ratio. Top Overweights: Taiwan, India, Greece; Attractive EM Sectors: Energy, Technology, Consumer Discretionary, Financials


MSCI Emerging Market Index Testing 1+ Year Resistance; Favor EM over EAFE; Top EM Buys Highlighted

Asian bank research and consultancy, Tabbush Report

Daniel Tabbush

Asian bank research and consultancy

Tabbush Report

We provide research and consultancy on Asian banks. Our focus is on what we call “Asian bank research, without the noise.” We are interested in the most critical swing-factors for banks, the NPL and credit cycle, and where we believe there is a gap between perception and reality. We often focus on the less studied components of bank financial statements.  Our research is highly thematic, sometimes examining unlisted banks and companies as a window on mainstream banks. 

Being independent allows us to look at smaller banks, often overlooked by others. Analysis of BIS bank guidelines in the context of Asia, is also a focal point, while we also analyze global banks operating in the region. We use what we believe is the most comprehensive, reliable financials database, SNL Financial. S&P Capital IQ augments our database, with corporate data and CEIC, with economics. 

Asian bank research, without the noise.

Equity Bottom-Up

Taishin Financial Holding / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>The monthly profit figures at Taishin are rising substantially, suggesting a strong 2Q23</li>
<li>Taishin's LDR had declined dramatically in 1Q23, monthly figures may suggest expansion</li>
<li>With declining credit costs, to match lower NPLs, the outlook for Taishin's profit is strong</li>
</ul>


The monthly profit figures at Taishin are rising substantially, suggesting a strong 2Q23
Taishin's LDR had declined dramatically in 1Q23, monthly figures may suggest expansion
With declining credit costs, to match lower NPLs, the outlook for Taishin's profit is strong


Taishin - Monthly Profit Surge at +253% in May Suggests Strong Quarterly Numbers

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>With two weeks left to the cutoff, there could be 5 changes to the Yuanta/​P-Shares Taiwan Dividend Plus ETF in June.</li>
<li>Apart from the adds/deletes, there will also be capping and funding flows that will lead to an estimated one-way turnover of 13.5% and a one-way trade of US$886m.</li>
<li>There are 9 stocks with at least 5 days ADV to trade from passive trackers and another 12 stocks that have at least 1 day ADV to trade.</li>
</ul>


With two weeks left to the cutoff, there could be 5 changes to the Yuanta/​P-Shares Taiwan Dividend Plus ETF in June.
Apart from the adds/deletes, there will also be capping and funding flows that will lead to an estimated one-way turnover of 13.5% and a one-way trade of US$886m.
There are 9 stocks with at least 5 days ADV to trade from passive trackers and another 12 stocks that have at least 1 day ADV to trade.


Yuanta/​​P-Shares Taiwan Dividend+ ETF Preview: Two Weeks to Cutoff

<ul>
<li>Using data from the close on 19 April, there could be 5 changes to the Yuanta/​P-Shares Taiwan Dividend Plus ETF in June.</li>
<li>There will also be capping and funding flows that will lead to a one-way turnover of 13.6% and a one-way trade of US$885m.</li>
<li>There are 10 stocks with at least 3 days ADV to trade from passive trackers and another 10 stocks that have at least 1 day ADV to trade.</li>
</ul>


Using data from the close on 19 April, there could be 5 changes to the Yuanta/​P-Shares Taiwan Dividend Plus ETF in June.
There will also be capping and funding flows that will lead to a one-way turnover of 13.6% and a one-way trade of US$885m.
There are 10 stocks with at least 3 days ADV to trade from passive trackers and another 10 stocks that have at least 1 day ADV to trade.


Yuanta/​P-Shares Taiwan Dividend Plus ETF: June Rebalance Preview

Taiwan

SinoPac Financial Holdings Co., Ltd. is an investment holding company, formed through Bank SinoPac and SinoPac Securities.

SinoPac Holdings (2890 TT)

MSCI EM Index Reversing 3-Month Downtrend -- Buy. Remain Overweight India, Upgrading Poland & Greece

In our prior EM Strategy (10/2/23) we discussed that, if $EEM is above $37, we were buyers on the pullback. Support held and now EEM displays a...

Vermilion Research

MSCI Emerging Market Index Testing 1+ Year Resistance; Favor EM over EAFE; Top EM Buys Highlighted

MSCI EM Index $EEM Testing 1+ Year Resistance; Favor EM over EAFE $EFA. Top EM Country Overweights: Taiwan, India, Greece; Attractive EM Sectors:...

Vermilion Research

Taishin - Monthly Profit Surge at +253% in May Suggests Strong Quarterly Numbers

Monthly profit figures are provided by Taiwan's banks, and the growth for Taishin in April and May has been incredibly strong, suggesting a very...

Daniel Tabbush

Yuanta/P-Shares Taiwan Dividend+ ETF Preview: Two Weeks to Cutoff

With 2 weeks to cutoff, we see 5 changes in June. The deletions are fairly clear, but there are a lot of non-constituents crowded around similar...

Brian Freitas

Yuanta/P-Shares Taiwan Dividend Plus ETF: June Rebalance Preview

There could be 5 changes for the Yuanta/P-Shares Taiwan Dividend Plus ETF in June. There will also be capping/funding flows that will lead to a...

Brian Freitas

MSCI EM Index Reversing 3-Month Downtrend -- Buy. Remain Overweight India, Upgrading Poland & Greece

In our prior EM Strategy (10/2/23) we discussed that, if $EEM is above $37, we were buyers on the pullback. Support held and now EEM displays a...

Vermilion Research

MSCI Emerging Market Index Testing 1+ Year Resistance; Favor EM over EAFE; Top EM Buys Highlighted

MSCI EM Index $EEM Testing 1+ Year Resistance; Favor EM over EAFE $EFA. Top EM Country Overweights: Taiwan, India, Greece; Attractive EM Sectors:...

Vermilion Research

Taishin - Monthly Profit Surge at +253% in May Suggests Strong Quarterly Numbers

Monthly profit figures are provided by Taiwan's banks, and the growth for Taishin in April and May has been incredibly strong, suggesting a very...

Daniel Tabbush

Yuanta/​​P-Shares Taiwan Dividend+ ETF Preview: Two Weeks to Cutoff

With 2 weeks to cutoff, we see 5 changes in June. The deletions are fairly clear, but there are a lot of non-constituents crowded around similar...

Brian Freitas

Yuanta/​P-Shares Taiwan Dividend Plus ETF: June Rebalance Preview

There could be 5 changes for the Yuanta/​P-Shares Taiwan Dividend Plus ETF in June. There will also be capping/funding flows that will lead to a...

Brian Freitas

Yuanta/P-Shares Taiwan Dividend+ ETF Preview: Two Weeks to Cutoff

Yuanta/P-Shares Taiwan Dividend Plus ETF: June Rebalance Preview

There could be 5 changes for the Yuanta/P-Shares Taiwan Dividend Plus ETF in June. There will also be capping/funding flows that will lead to a...