HK/China Equity Long-Short

Osbert Tang, CFA

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Following a 20% rally in 1H25, the market has built in excessive optimism on the HSI. Historically, average returns for Jul-Oct are negative, suggesting caution is needed.</li>
<li>The top 10 best-performing constituents are sitting on 24x FY25F PER, much higher than 11x for the Index, implying that earnings excitement has been well factored in. </li>
<li>Among the worst-performing ones in 1H25, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/byd-electronic-international-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1927:1" rel="noopener">BYD Electronics (285 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/haier-smart-home-co-ltd-b3ef445f-0f54-4586-8c58-9073de98d60e" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31105:1" rel="noopener">Haier Smart Home (6690 HK)</a>, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/techtronic-industries-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4561:1" rel="noopener">Techtronic Industries (669 HK)</a> look appealing in 2H25.</li>
</ul>


Following a 20% rally in 1H25, the market has built in excessive optimism on the HSI. Historically, average returns for Jul-Oct are negative, suggesting caution is needed.
The top 10 best-performing constituents are sitting on 24x FY25F PER, much higher than 11x for the Index, implying that earnings excitement has been well factored in. 
Among the worst-performing ones in 1H25, BYD Electronics (285 HK), Haier Smart Home (6690 HK), and Techtronic Industries (669 HK) look appealing in 2H25.


<ul>
<li>The HSI has already recovered to 2.2% above the pre-"reciprocal tariff" level, and the top 10 best-performing constituents have registered an average return of 15.6%.</li>
<li>Despite so, there are still 40 under-performing stocks, with 32 of them remain in the negative zone with an average of 4.8% loss. </li>
<li>Among them, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/zto-express-cayman-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:33488:1" rel="noopener">ZTO Express Cayman (2057 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/budweiser-brewing-co-apac-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28077:1" rel="noopener">Budweiser Brewing APAC (1876 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/byd-electronic-international-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1927:1" rel="noopener">BYD Electronics (285 HK)</a>, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/meituan" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26970:1" rel="noopener">Meituan (3690 HK)</a> look well-positioned to catch up.</li>
</ul>


The HSI has already recovered to 2.2% above the pre-"reciprocal tariff" level, and the top 10 best-performing constituents have registered an average return of 15.6%.
Despite so, there are still 40 under-performing stocks, with 32 of them remain in the negative zone with an average of 4.8% loss. 
Among them, ZTO Express Cayman (2057 HK), Budweiser Brewing APAC (1876 HK), BYD Electronics (285 HK), and Meituan (3690 HK) look well-positioned to catch up.


HK Strategy: What Are Some of the HSI Laggards to Pick Up?

HK/China Healthcare Analyst (ex-Fosun Pharma)

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

<ul>
<li>APIs, generic drugs, CXO, low-end medical consumables will be hit the most due to tariffs.Investors are advised to be cautious on these subsectors as companies’ performance would be negatively affected. </li>
<li>As the tariff war is heating up, blood products, innovative medical device, innovative drugs, chain pharmacies, innovative medical services, pharmaceutical distribution business could be "safe haven assets" for investors. </li>
<li>The logic behind tariffs is to attack China's effective supply and trigger China's overcapacity problem, thereby weakening effective demand and reducing capital accumulation rate, so as to attack the RMB.</li>
</ul>


APIs, generic drugs, CXO, low-end medical consumables will be hit the most due to tariffs.Investors are advised to be cautious on these subsectors as companies’ performance would be negatively affected. 
As the tariff war is heating up, blood products, innovative medical device, innovative drugs, chain pharmacies, innovative medical services, pharmaceutical distribution business could be "safe haven assets" for investors. 
The logic behind tariffs is to attack China's effective supply and trigger China's overcapacity problem, thereby weakening effective demand and reducing capital accumulation rate, so as to attack the RMB.


The Impact of Trump's Tariffs on China Healthcare - The Victims, And the Safe Haven Assets

Global Healthcare Analyst

Tina Banerjee

<ul>
<li>Celltrion received FDA approval for Omlyclo, the first and only biosimilar designated as interchangeable with Xolair. Ono Pharmaceutical in-licensed drug candidate for polycythemia vera from Ionis Pharmaceuticals.</li>
<li>Sun Pharmaceutical will acquire Checkpoint Therapeutics for an upfront cash payment of $4.10 per share. Syngene is acquiring Emergent’s biologics facility in Baltimore for $36.5M.</li>
<li>Zydus Lifesciences is acquiring 85.6% stake in in Amplitude Surgical for €257M. Sichuan Kelun received China approval for sacituzumab tirumotecan for certain types of non-small cell lung cancer.</li>
</ul>


Celltrion received FDA approval for Omlyclo, the first and only biosimilar designated as interchangeable with Xolair. Ono Pharmaceutical in-licensed drug candidate for polycythemia vera from Ionis Pharmaceuticals.
Sun Pharmaceutical will acquire Checkpoint Therapeutics for an upfront cash payment of $4.10 per share. Syngene is acquiring Emergent’s biologics facility in Baltimore for $36.5M.
Zydus Lifesciences is acquiring 85.6% stake in in Amplitude Surgical for €257M. Sichuan Kelun received China approval for sacituzumab tirumotecan for certain types of non-small cell lung cancer.


APAC Healthcare Weekly (Mar 16)- Celltrion, Ono Pharma, Sun Pharma, Syngene, Zydus, Sichuan Kelun

Asian Hedge Fund Manager, Long Short Equity, Macro

David Mudd

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>Healthcare sector continues to gain momentum in Hong Kong market during pullback with materials and energy sectors lagging.</li>
<li>Value and Liquidity factors have outperformed since stimulus announcement in September.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/anta-sports-products-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10261:1" rel="noopener">Anta Sports Products (2020 HK)</a> , <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jd-health-international-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29677:1" rel="noopener">JD Health International (6618 HK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sands-china-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:182:1" rel="noopener">Sands China (1928 HK)</a> were rated as BUY as analysts turn toward China consumption plays as future winners.
</li>
</ul>


Healthcare sector continues to gain momentum in Hong Kong market during pullback with materials and energy sectors lagging.
Value and Liquidity factors have outperformed since stimulus announcement in September.

Anta Sports Products (2020 HK) , JD Health International (6618 HK) and Sands China (1928 HK) were rated as BUY as analysts turn toward China consumption plays as future winners.



BUY/SELL/HOLD: Hong Kong Stock Updates (October 15)

China

Sinopharm Group is a leading Chinese distributor and retailer of pharmaceutical and healthcare products, medical devices, and a supply chain service provider. The company also engages in the production and sale of pharmaceutical products, chemical reagents, and laboratory supplies. It was incorporated in January 2003 and is headquartered in Shanghai, China.

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Sinopharm Group (1099 HK)

HK Strategy: Some Ideas for 2H25

Excessive optimism on HSI after a 20% rally YTD, caution needed for Jul-Oct as historically returns are negative. BYD Electronic, Haier Smart...

Osbert Tang, CFA

HK Strategy: What Are Some of the HSI Laggards to Pick Up?

HSI has rebounded above pre-reciprocal tariff levels, with top stocks up 15.6%. However, 32 stocks remain negative, with ZTO Express, Budweiser...

Osbert Tang, CFA

The Impact of Trump's Tariffs on China Healthcare - The Victims, And the Safe Haven Assets

As tariff war is heating up, some sectors in China healthcare will be victims, but there will also safe haven assets.The logic behind tariffs is to...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

APAC Healthcare Weekly (Mar 16)- Celltrion, Ono Pharma, Sun Pharma, Syngene, Zydus, Sichuan Kelun

APAC healthcare companies continued to get approvals for new products and initiates clinical trials. The companies continued with acquisitions and...

Tina Banerjee

BUY/SELL/HOLD: Hong Kong Stock Updates (October 15)

Healthcare sector gains momentum in HK and materials and energy lag. Anta is appealing to the mass market with new megastores. JDH benefits from...

David Mudd

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

HK Strategy: Some Ideas for 2H25

​Excessive optimism on HSI after a 20% rally YTD, caution needed for Jul-Oct as historically returns are negative. BYD Electronic, Haier Smart...

Osbert Tang, CFA

HK Strategy: What Are Some of the HSI Laggards to Pick Up?

​HSI has rebounded above pre-reciprocal tariff levels, with top stocks up 15.6%. However, 32 stocks remain negative, with ZTO Express, Budweiser...

Osbert Tang, CFA

The Impact of Trump's Tariffs on China Healthcare - The Victims, And the Safe Haven Assets

As tariff war is heating up, some sectors in China healthcare will be victims, but there will also safe haven assets.The logic behind tariffs is to...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

APAC Healthcare Weekly (Mar 16)- Celltrion, Ono Pharma, Sun Pharma, Syngene, Zydus, Sichuan Kelun

APAC healthcare companies continued to get approvals for new products and initiates clinical trials. The companies continued with acquisitions and...

Tina Banerjee

BUY/SELL/HOLD: Hong Kong Stock Updates (October 15)

Healthcare sector gains momentum in HK and materials and energy lag. Anta is appealing to the mass market with new megastores. JDH benefits from...

David Mudd

Excessive optimism on HSI after a 20% rally YTD, caution needed for Jul-Oct as historically returns are negative. BYD Electronic, Haier Smart...

HSI has rebounded above pre-reciprocal tariff levels, with top stocks up 15.6%. However, 32 stocks remain negative, with ZTO Express, Budweiser...