Asia L/S Equity PM/Macro/Thematic Idea Generation

Rikki Malik

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>A Profit-Oriented State Owned Enterprise that is walking the walk.</li>
<li>Management incentives are aligned with shareholders, a rarity in China.</li>
<li>Plenty of upside remains despite the market outperformance to date</li>
</ul>


A Profit-Oriented State Owned Enterprise that is walking the walk.
Management incentives are aligned with shareholders, a rarity in China.
Plenty of upside remains despite the market outperformance to date


Sinotrans (598.HK), a Shining Example of SOE Reform

Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal, Shenton Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China Biotech

Shenton Research

Shenton Research is an independent Asia Pacific equity specialist. Our quantitative research covers index rebalancing flows, alongside exchange data analytics accross Asia Pacific. On the equity capital markets side, we focus on Asia Pacific ECM, especially biotech and TMT. Our lead analyst is frequently cited by international media.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyse the changes of A-H premium on 200 stocks over the last week. The average A-H premium was 92.3% as of Oct 9th.</li>
<li>The average A-H premium changed by 3.7ppt week-on-week, led by materials, industrials, utilities.</li>
<li>We highlight weekly changes in A-H premium for Innocare, Ganfenglithium, China East Air, Yofc.</li>
</ul>


We analyse the changes of A-H premium on 200 stocks over the last week. The average A-H premium was 92.3% as of Oct 9th.
The average A-H premium changed by 3.7ppt week-on-week, led by materials, industrials, utilities.
We highlight weekly changes in A-H premium for Innocare, Ganfenglithium, China East Air, Yofc.


A-H Premium Weekly (Oct 9th): Innocare, Ganfenglithium, China East Air, Yofc

HK/China Equity Long-Short

Osbert Tang, CFA

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Excluding an outlier, our coverage universe is expected to witness a 56.6% YoY earnings growth in 4Q25, rapidly accelerating from the previous quarter.</li>
<li>Stocks with the best growth are <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/xinjiang-goldwind-science-technology-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10112:1" rel="noopener">Xinjiang Goldwind (2208 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sany-heavy-equipment-intl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11104:1" rel="noopener">Sany Heavy Equip. (631 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/dongfang-electric-corporation-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1251:1" rel="noopener">Dongfang Electric (1072 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-tourism-group-duty-free" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36229:1" rel="noopener">CTG Duty Free (1880 HK)</a>, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/cosco-shipping-energy-tran-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:646:1" rel="noopener">Cosco Shipping Energy (1138 HK)</a>.. </li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-international-capital-corporation-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1071:1" rel="noopener">CICC (3908 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-national-building-ma-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:184:1" rel="noopener">CNBM (3323 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shanghai-electric-group-company-limited-d542164d-4d5a-4ce0-b33e-5fe6bc34722c" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8777:1" rel="noopener">Shanghai Electric (2727 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sinotrans-limited-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1321:1" rel="noopener">Sinotrans (598 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/anjoy-foods-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:44280:1" rel="noopener">Anjoy Foods (2648 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/cosco-shipping-ports-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:360:1" rel="noopener">Cosco Shipping Ports (1199 HK)</a>, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/haier-smart-home-co-ltd-b3ef445f-0f54-4586-8c58-9073de98d60e" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31105:1" rel="noopener">Haier Smart Home (6690 HK)</a> may upgrade. </li>
</ul>


Excluding an outlier, our coverage universe is expected to witness a 56.6% YoY earnings growth in 4Q25, rapidly accelerating from the previous quarter.
Stocks with the best growth are Xinjiang Goldwind (2208 HK), Sany Heavy Equip. (631 HK), Dongfang Electric (1072 HK), CTG Duty Free (1880 HK), and Cosco Shipping Energy (1138 HK).. 

CICC (3908 HK), CNBM (3323 HK), Shanghai Electric (2727 HK), Sinotrans (598 HK), Anjoy Foods (2648 HK), Cosco Shipping Ports (1199 HK), and Haier Smart Home (6690 HK) may upgrade. 


China & HK Strategy: Stock Implications for 4Q25

<ul>
<li>The top ten highest-yielding stocks under our coverage have an average yield of 7.4% for FY25F and 7.2% for FY26F, attractive amid the declining interest rate environment.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sinotrans-limited-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1321:1" rel="noopener">Sinotrans (598 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/anhui-expressway-co-ltd-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5236:1" rel="noopener">Anhui Expressway Co Ltd H (995 HK)</a>, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-railway-signal-communication-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:613:1" rel="noopener">China Railway Signal &amp; Communication (3969 HK)</a> are better quality ones with 6-7% average yield.</li>
<li>Chinese airlines are low on yields given they are still loss-making, but they have a good earnings rebound in 2H25, making them suitable for aggressive investors.</li>
</ul>


The top ten highest-yielding stocks under our coverage have an average yield of 7.4% for FY25F and 7.2% for FY26F, attractive amid the declining interest rate environment.

Sinotrans (598 HK), Anhui Expressway Co Ltd H (995 HK), and China Railway Signal &amp; Communication (3969 HK) are better quality ones with 6-7% average yield.
Chinese airlines are low on yields given they are still loss-making, but they have a good earnings rebound in 2H25, making them suitable for aggressive investors.


China & HK Strategy: The High-Yield Playbook

<ul>
<li>The 3Q25 results will be testing grounds to justify the multiple expansion, as our coverage saw a 2% downgrade in FY25 earnings since the interim announcement.</li>
<li>Seven stocks will have over 100% YoY earnings growth in 2H25, implying strength in 3Q25 as well. Three stocks, however, will experience earnings decline.</li>
<li>The stronger ones are <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-eastern-airlines-co-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1079:1" rel="noopener">China Eastern Airlines (670 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shanghai-electric-group-company-limited-d542164d-4d5a-4ce0-b33e-5fe6bc34722c" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8777:1" rel="noopener">Shanghai Electric Group Company (2727 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-southern-airlines-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1078:1" rel="noopener">China Southern Airlines (1055 HK)</a>, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sany-heavy-equipment-intl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11104:1" rel="noopener">Sany Heavy Equipment (631 HK)</a>. </li>
</ul>


The 3Q25 results will be testing grounds to justify the multiple expansion, as our coverage saw a 2% downgrade in FY25 earnings since the interim announcement.
Seven stocks will have over 100% YoY earnings growth in 2H25, implying strength in 3Q25 as well. Three stocks, however, will experience earnings decline.
The stronger ones are China Eastern Airlines (670 HK), Shanghai Electric Group Company (2727 HK), China Southern Airlines (1055 HK), and Sany Heavy Equipment (631 HK). 


China & HK Strategy: 3Q25 Preview - Beauty and the Beast

China

Sinotrans is a leading Chinese integrated logistics services provider specializing in freight forwarding (sea, air, and rail), warehousing, transportation, and supply chain management. The company also offers e-commerce logistics solutions. It is headquartered in Beijing, People's Republic of China, and was incorporated in 2002.

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Sinotrans (598 HK)

Sinotrans (598.HK), a Shining Example of SOE Reform

State-owned enterprise in China demonstrates profit-oriented approach with management incentives aligned with shareholders, offering potential for...

Rikki Malik

A-H Premium Weekly (Oct 9th): Innocare, Ganfenglithium, China East Air, Yofc

We analyzed A-H premium changes in the past week and highlight A-H premium changes for Innocare, Ganfenglithium, China East Air, Yofc.

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

China & HK Strategy: Stock Implications for 4Q25

Expect a 56.6% YoY profit growth in 4Q25 for our coverage universe, with top growth stocks being Xinjiang Goldwind, Sany Heavy Equipment, Dongfang...

Osbert Tang, CFA

China & HK Strategy: The High-Yield Playbook

With the increase in volatility in the near term due to the uncertainties from potentially higher tariffs and the Trump-Xi meeting in APEC, there...

Osbert Tang, CFA

China & HK Strategy: 3Q25 Preview - Beauty and the Beast

3Q25 results will test earnings multiple expansion. Seven stocks will show over 100% YoY earnings growth in 2H25, including China Eastern,...

Osbert Tang, CFA

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Sinotrans (598.HK), a Shining Example of SOE Reform

​State-owned enterprise in China demonstrates profit-oriented approach with management incentives aligned with shareholders, offering potential for...

Rikki Malik

A-H Premium Weekly (Oct 9th): Innocare, Ganfenglithium, China East Air, Yofc

We analyzed A-H premium changes in the past week and highlight A-H premium changes for Innocare, Ganfenglithium, China East Air, Yofc.

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

China & HK Strategy: Stock Implications for 4Q25

​Expect a 56.6% YoY profit growth in 4Q25 for our coverage universe, with top growth stocks being Xinjiang Goldwind, Sany Heavy Equipment, Dongfang...

Osbert Tang, CFA

China & HK Strategy: The High-Yield Playbook

With the increase in volatility in the near term due to the uncertainties from potentially higher tariffs and the Trump-Xi meeting in APEC, there...

Osbert Tang, CFA

China & HK Strategy: 3Q25 Preview - Beauty and the Beast

​3Q25 results will test earnings multiple expansion. Seven stocks will show over 100% YoY earnings growth in 2H25, including China Eastern,...

Osbert Tang, CFA

State-owned enterprise in China demonstrates profit-oriented approach with management incentives aligned with shareholders, offering potential for...

Expect a 56.6% YoY profit growth in 4Q25 for our coverage universe, with top growth stocks being Xinjiang Goldwind, Sany Heavy Equipment, Dongfang...

3Q25 results will test earnings multiple expansion. Seven stocks will show over 100% YoY earnings growth in 2H25, including China Eastern,...