HK/China Equity Long-Short

Osbert Tang, CFA

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>The 1H23 result of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sinotrans-limited-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1321:1" rel="noopener">Sinotrans (598 HK)</a> is unexciting as recurring profit contracted 9.8%. The decline has also accelerated to 13.5% in 2Q23, from just 4.6% in 1Q23. </li>
<li>Weak export (-14.5% YoY in Jul) and poor airfreight price (-45% YoY in Jul) did not bode well for profitability. The flattening of DHL-Sinotrans' contribution also limits earnings upside.</li>
<li>Valuations are inexpensive at 5.3x PER and 9% yield for FY23, but growth outlook is not encouraging. We think it is a good time to take money off the table.</li>
</ul>


The 1H23 result of Sinotrans (598 HK) is unexciting as recurring profit contracted 9.8%. The decline has also accelerated to 13.5% in 2Q23, from just 4.6% in 1Q23. 
Weak export (-14.5% YoY in Jul) and poor airfreight price (-45% YoY in Jul) did not bode well for profitability. The flattening of DHL-Sinotrans' contribution also limits earnings upside.
Valuations are inexpensive at 5.3x PER and 9% yield for FY23, but growth outlook is not encouraging. We think it is a good time to take money off the table.


Sinotrans (598 HK): Challenges Have Not Abated Yet

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Equity Capital Markets

J&T Global Express / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/j-t-global-express" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36819:1" rel="noopener">J&amp;T Global Express (1936374D CH)</a>, a leading express delivery business in Southeast Asia and China has filed for a HKEx IPO to raise US$1 billion, according to press reports.   </li>
<li>In <em><strong><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/j-t-global-express-ipo-the-bull-case" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:104964" rel="noopener">J&amp;T Global Express IPO: The Bull Case</a></strong></em>, we highlighted the key elements of the bull case. In this note, we outline the bear case.</li>
<li>The key elements of the bear case rest on organic revenue decline in SEA/China, deteriorating contract liabilities, SEA margin pressure, high cash burn and weak balance sheet.</li>
</ul>



J&amp;T Global Express (1936374D CH), a leading express delivery business in Southeast Asia and China has filed for a HKEx IPO to raise US$1 billion, according to press reports.   
In J&amp;T Global Express IPO: The Bull Case, we highlighted the key elements of the bull case. In this note, we outline the bear case.
The key elements of the bear case rest on organic revenue decline in SEA/China, deteriorating contract liabilities, SEA margin pressure, high cash burn and weak balance sheet.


<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/j-t-global-express" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36819:1" rel="noopener">J&amp;T Global Express (1936374D CH)</a>, a leading express delivery business in Southeast Asia and China has filed for a HKEx IPO to raise US$1 billion, according to press reports.   </li>
<li>J&amp;T is the number one express delivery operator in Southeast Asia by parcel volume from 2020 to 2022, according to Frost &amp; Sullivan. </li>
<li>The key elements of the bull case rest on large addressable markets, market share gains, robust reported revenue growth and narrowing losses which set a path to profitability.</li>
</ul>



J&amp;T Global Express (1936374D CH), a leading express delivery business in Southeast Asia and China has filed for a HKEx IPO to raise US$1 billion, according to press reports.   
J&amp;T is the number one express delivery operator in Southeast Asia by parcel volume from 2020 to 2022, according to Frost &amp; Sullivan. 
The key elements of the bull case rest on large addressable markets, market share gains, robust reported revenue growth and narrowing losses which set a path to profitability.


Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal, Shenton Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China Biotech

DZT Research

DZT Research is an independent Asia Pacific equity specialist. Our quantitative research covers index rebalancing flows, alongside exchange data analytics accross Asia Pacific. On the equity capital markets side, we focus on Asia Pacific ECM, especially biotech and TMT. Our lead analyst is frequently cited by international media.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyse the changes of A-H premium on 143 stocks over the last week. The average A-H premium was 111.6% as of May 12th.</li>
<li>The average A-H premium changed by 0.4ppt week on week, led by real estate, financials, utilities and offset by consumer staples, consumer discretionary, energy.</li>
<li>We highlight weekly changes in A-H premium for CCB, BoC, China Shenhua, Yankuang Energy, CHina Life.</li>
</ul>


We analyse the changes of A-H premium on 143 stocks over the last week. The average A-H premium was 111.6% as of May 12th.
The average A-H premium changed by 0.4ppt week on week, led by real estate, financials, utilities and offset by consumer staples, consumer discretionary, energy.
We highlight weekly changes in A-H premium for CCB, BoC, China Shenhua, Yankuang Energy, CHina Life.


A-H Premium Weekly (May 12th): CCB, BoC, China Shenhua, Yankuang Energy, CHina Life

<ul>
<li>While meeting expectations in 1Q23, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sinotrans-limited-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1321:1" rel="noopener">Sinotrans (598 HK)</a> has relied on a 105.2% surge in other income, mostly government subsidies. Without them, pre-tax profit would have dropped 21%.</li>
<li>For most business areas, volume has come down YoY and QoQ, highlighting challenging operating environment. JV contribution, mostly DHL-Sinotrans, has also declined 11.5% YoY.</li>
<li>While we like its long-term fundamentals and undemanding multiples, we have concerns on near-term headwinds and weakened earnings quality; and risks of profit downgrades.  </li>
</ul>


While meeting expectations in 1Q23, Sinotrans (598 HK) has relied on a 105.2% surge in other income, mostly government subsidies. Without them, pre-tax profit would have dropped 21%.
For most business areas, volume has come down YoY and QoQ, highlighting challenging operating environment. JV contribution, mostly DHL-Sinotrans, has also declined 11.5% YoY.
While we like its long-term fundamentals and undemanding multiples, we have concerns on near-term headwinds and weakened earnings quality; and risks of profit downgrades.  


Sinotrans (598 HK): Still Seeing Uncertainties Ahead

China

Sinotrans is a leading Chinese integrated logistics services provider specializing in freight forwarding (sea, air, and rail), warehousing, transportation, and supply chain management. The company also offers e-commerce logistics solutions. It is headquartered in Beijing, People's Republic of China, and was incorporated in 2002.

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Sinotrans (598 HK)

Sinotrans (598 HK): Challenges Have Not Abated Yet

Weak export and poor airfreight price did not bode well for profitability. The flattening of DHL-Sinotrans' contribution limits earnings upside. It...

Osbert Tang, CFA

J&T Global Express IPO: The Bear Case

The key elements of the bear case rest on organic revenue decline in SEA/China, deteriorating contract liabilities, SEA margin pressure, high cash...

Arun George

J&T Global Express IPO: The Bull Case

The key elements of the bull case rest on large addressable markets, market share gains, robust reported revenue growth and narrowing losses which...

Arun George

A-H Premium Weekly (May 12th): CCB, BoC, China Shenhua, Yankuang Energy, CHina Life

We analyzed A-H premium changes in the past week and highlight A-H premium changes for CCB, BoC, China Shenhua, Yankuang Energy, CHina Life.

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Sinotrans (598 HK): Still Seeing Uncertainties Ahead

1Q23 net profit is supported by 105% surge in subsidies, but their sustainability is unknown. DHL-Sinotrans also saw an 11% profit decline. We...

Osbert Tang, CFA

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