HK/China Equity Long-Short

Osbert Tang, CFA

Equity Bottom-Up

<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sinotrans-limited-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1321:1" rel="noopener">Sinotrans (598 HK)</a> posted another set of strong result in 3Q21 with recurring earnings grew by 34.2% YoY. The slow growth of 5.8% in reported earnings is distorted by an Rmb143m provision in litigation loss, and investors should not let this non-recurring figure mask the interpretation of good result. We saw healthy double-digit volume growth for logistics and e-commerce businesses in the quarter, and international express JV DHL-Sinotrans continued to stage a solid growth in profit contribution.We believe Sinotrans is deeply undervalued at 0.47x 12-month forward P/B given an 11.7% ROE and a 41% earnings growth for FY21F. The 21% pullback in share price along with the container shipping sector in a month's time looks unjustified, in our view. Sinotrans has a solid financial position with 3Q21 gearing of just 6.6%, and assume a stable dividend payout, it is sitting on an attractive dividend yield of 7.4% for this year.

Sinotrans (598 HK) posted another set of strong result in 3Q21 with recurring earnings grew by 34.2% YoY. The slow growth of 5.8% in reported earnings is distorted by an Rmb143m provision in litigation loss, and investors should not let this non-recurring figure mask the interpretation of good result. We saw healthy double-digit volume growth for logistics and e-commerce businesses in the quarter, and international express JV DHL-Sinotrans continued to stage a solid growth in profit contribution.We believe Sinotrans is deeply undervalued at 0.47x 12-month forward P/B given an 11.7% ROE and a 41% earnings growth for FY21F. The 21% pullback in share price along with the container shipping sector in a month's time looks unjustified, in our view. Sinotrans has a solid financial position with 3Q21 gearing of just 6.6%, and assume a stable dividend payout, it is sitting on an attractive dividend yield of 7.4% for this year.  

Sinotrans (598 HK): From Strength to Strength

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Equity Capital Markets

<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ane-logistics" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:34119:1" rel="noopener">ANE Logistics (1292621D CH)</a> operates a leading express freight network in China’s less-than-truckload (LTL) market. ANE operated the largest express freight network in China as measured by annual total freight volume in each of 2017, 2018, 2019 and 2020, according to iResearch.ANE is pre-marketing an HKEx IPO to raise up to $500 million, according to press reports. ANE’s shareholders include Centurium, Carlyle, CDH, CPE, NWS, Ping An, Goldman Sachs and Yili.In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/ane-logistics-ipo-initiation-home-delivery" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:57807" rel="noopener">ANE Logistics IPO Initiation: Home Delivery</a>, we stated that ANE is a play on China’s LTL market which offers substantial opportunities for market consolidation as the top 10 LTL operators in China had a market share of 5.7% by shipper spend in 2020, according to iResearch. As the largest (by freight volume), fastest-growing and most profitable player, ANE is well-positioned to be a market consolidator. We concluded that ANE’s fundamentals are solid. <div class="content-highlight">In this note, we look at the PHIP which discloses the 4M21 results and recent developments. The PHIP continues to support our view that the ANE IPO is worth a look for investors willing to brave the current weak sentiment on HKEx IPOs.</div>

ANE Logistics (1292621D CH) operates a leading express freight network in China’s less-than-truckload (LTL) market. ANE operated the largest express freight network in China as measured by annual total freight volume in each of 2017, 2018, 2019 and 2020, according to iResearch.ANE is pre-marketing an HKEx IPO to raise up to $500 million, according to press reports. ANE’s shareholders include Centurium, Carlyle, CDH, CPE, NWS, Ping An, Goldman Sachs and Yili.In ANE Logistics IPO Initiation: Home Delivery, we stated that ANE is a play on China’s LTL market which offers substantial opportunities for market consolidation as the top 10 LTL operators in China had a market share of 5.7% by shipper spend in 2020, according to iResearch. As the largest (by freight volume), fastest-growing and most profitable player, ANE is well-positioned to be a market consolidator. We concluded that ANE’s fundamentals are solid. In this note, we look at the PHIP which discloses the 4M21 results and recent developments. The PHIP continues to support our view that the ANE IPO is worth a look for investors willing to brave the current weak sentiment on HKEx IPOs.

<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ane-logistics" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:34119:1" rel="noopener">ANE Logistics (1292621D CH)</a> operates a leading express freight network in China’s less-than-truckload (LTL) market. ANE operated the largest express freight network in China as measured by annual total freight volume in each of 2017, 2018, 2019 and 2020, according to iResearch.ANE passed its HKEx listing committee hearing and will start pre-marketing to raise up to $500 million, according to press reports. ANE’s shareholders include Centurium, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/carlyle-group-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:33402:1" rel="noopener">Carlyle Group Inc (CG US)</a>, CDH, CPE, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nws-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3350:1" rel="noopener">Nws Holdings (659 HK)</a>, Ping An, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/goldman-sachs-group-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:785:1" rel="noopener">Goldman Sachs Group (GS US)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/inner-mongolia-yili-indus-a" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3220:1" rel="noopener">Inner Mongolia Yili Industrial Group (A) (600887 CH)</a>.<div class="content-highlight">ANE is a play on China’s LTL market which offers substantial opportunities for market consolidation as the top 10 LTL operators in China had a market share of 5.7% by shipper spend in 2020, according to iResearch. As the largest (by freight volume), fastest-growing and most profitable player, ANE is well-positioned to be a market consolidator. On balance, we think that ANE’s fundamentals are solid and the IPO is worth a look for investors willing to brave the current weak sentiment on HKEx IPOs. </div>

ANE Logistics (1292621D CH) operates a leading express freight network in China’s less-than-truckload (LTL) market. ANE operated the largest express freight network in China as measured by annual total freight volume in each of 2017, 2018, 2019 and 2020, according to iResearch.ANE passed its HKEx listing committee hearing and will start pre-marketing to raise up to $500 million, according to press reports. ANE’s shareholders include Centurium, Carlyle Group Inc (CG US), CDH, CPE, Nws Holdings (659 HK), Ping An, Goldman Sachs Group (GS US) and Inner Mongolia Yili Industrial Group (A) (600887 CH).ANE is a play on China’s LTL market which offers substantial opportunities for market consolidation as the top 10 LTL operators in China had a market share of 5.7% by shipper spend in 2020, according to iResearch. As the largest (by freight volume), fastest-growing and most profitable player, ANE is well-positioned to be a market consolidator. On balance, we think that ANE’s fundamentals are solid and the IPO is worth a look for investors willing to brave the current weak sentiment on HKEx IPOs. 

ANE Logistics IPO Initiation: Home Delivery

<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sinotrans-limited-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1321:1" rel="noopener">Sinotrans (598 HK)</a> delivered another set of good result with the report of a 77.9% YoY increase in net profit for 1H21, which is at the higher end of the indicated range in its positive profit alert. For 2Q21 only, recurring profit also grew a healthy 17.4% YoY and 36.5% QoQ, with the international express JV DHL-Sinotrans witnessing the best momentum. Meanwhile, financial position remained solid with a light gearing of just 10.5%.We expect a slower 2H21, partly due to a higher base in last year. However, we still see FY21 earnings to surge 45% YoY, thanks to China's sustained trade growth, new customer gains, network expansion, continued product enhancement and e-commerce market growth. Our projected ROE of 12.2% for FY21 well suggested that its 0.51x P/B inexpensive. This argument is further supported by a PER of 4.5x only and an attractive dividend yield of 7.0%.

Sinotrans (598 HK) delivered another set of good result with the report of a 77.9% YoY increase in net profit for 1H21, which is at the higher end of the indicated range in its positive profit alert. For 2Q21 only, recurring profit also grew a healthy 17.4% YoY and 36.5% QoQ, with the international express JV DHL-Sinotrans witnessing the best momentum. Meanwhile, financial position remained solid with a light gearing of just 10.5%.We expect a slower 2H21, partly due to a higher base in last year. However, we still see FY21 earnings to surge 45% YoY, thanks to China's sustained trade growth, new customer gains, network expansion, continued product enhancement and e-commerce market growth. Our projected ROE of 12.2% for FY21 well suggested that its 0.51x P/B inexpensive. This argument is further supported by a PER of 4.5x only and an attractive dividend yield of 7.0%. 

<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sinotrans-limited-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1321:1" rel="noopener">Sinotrans (598 HK)</a> issued a positive profit alert on 7 Jul which indicates its 1H21 recurring net profit will reach Rmb1.744-1.961bn. In other words, recurring profit growth will be between 60% and 80% YoY in the period. More importantly, looking at just 2Q21, the growth will range at 7.1%-31.1%, or 19.1% based on the midpoint of the guidance. In our view, this is a decent set of result which will be reported by end-Aug.Share price of Sinotrans has retreated by 15% from its peak in early-Jun due to concerns on the slowdown in new export orders in China and high base for comparison going into 2H21. However, the retreat has returned valuations back to very undemanding levels of 6.2x PER, 0.61x P/B and 5.2% dividend yield for FY21. Even with a projected net cash of Rmb0.48/share (or HK$0.51, 16% of current share price), we still looking at a healthy ROE of 9.8% for the year.

Sinotrans (598 HK) issued a positive profit alert on 7 Jul which indicates its 1H21 recurring net profit will reach Rmb1.744-1.961bn. In other words, recurring profit growth will be between 60% and 80% YoY in the period. More importantly, looking at just 2Q21, the growth will range at 7.1%-31.1%, or 19.1% based on the midpoint of the guidance. In our view, this is a decent set of result which will be reported by end-Aug.Share price of Sinotrans has retreated by 15% from its peak in early-Jun due to concerns on the slowdown in new export orders in China and high base for comparison going into 2H21. However, the retreat has returned valuations back to very undemanding levels of 6.2x PER, 0.61x P/B and 5.2% dividend yield for FY21. Even with a projected net cash of Rmb0.48/share (or HK$0.51, 16% of current share price), we still looking at a healthy ROE of 9.8% for the year.

Sinotrans (598 HK): Positive Profit Alert for 1H21

China

Sinotrans is a leading Chinese integrated logistics services provider specializing in freight forwarding (sea, air, and rail), warehousing, transportation, and supply chain management. The company also offers e-commerce logistics solutions. It is headquartered in Beijing, People's Republic of China, and was incorporated in 2002.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

Sinotrans (598 HK)

Sinotrans (598 HK): From Strength to Strength

Sinotrans' slower 3Q21 profit growth is due to non-recurring item; and excluding this, its growth was an impressive 34.2%. The 0.47x P/B has deeply...

Osbert Tang, CFA

ANE IPO: The Freight Debate

ANE is pre-marketing an HKEx IPO to raise up to $500 m. The PHIP continues to support our view that the ANE is worth a look for investors willing...

Arun George

ANE Logistics IPO Initiation: Home Delivery

ANE will start pre-marketing an HKEx IPO to raise up to $500 m. We think that ANE’s fundamentals are solid and the IPO is worth a look for...

Arun George

Sinotrans (598 HK): A Rock Solid 1H21

1H21 is a solid result, and despite a slower 2H21 on hgher base, the full-year growth of Sinotrans will still be very decent. We think that all...

Osbert Tang, CFA

Sinotrans (598 HK): Positive Profit Alert for 1H21

Sinotrans' solid 2Q21 result should ease concern about slowdown in business momentum. We think the recent retreat in share price has returned the...

Osbert Tang, CFA

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)