HK/China Equity Long-Short

Osbert Tang, CFA

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>A "Long <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sitc-international-holdings" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15301:1" rel="noopener">SITC Intl (1308 HK)</a>, Short <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/orient-overseas-international" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:801:1" rel="noopener">OOIL (316 HK)</a>" pair trade should benefit from the more resilient intra-Asia trade and capture the tariff-induced challenges on Trans-Pacific trade. </li>
<li>OOIL derived 28.3% of its volume and 38.7% of its revenue from the Trans-Pacific route in 1Q25. Instead, SITC generated 100% of its revenue from the Asian market.</li>
<li>While OOIL's 0.7x P/B is cheaper than SITC's 2.5x, its FY25 ROE of 10.6% is lower than SITC's 34.6%. SITC's dividend yield is also trending up, against OOIL's down.</li>
</ul>


A "Long SITC Intl (1308 HK), Short OOIL (316 HK)" pair trade should benefit from the more resilient intra-Asia trade and capture the tariff-induced challenges on Trans-Pacific trade. 
OOIL derived 28.3% of its volume and 38.7% of its revenue from the Trans-Pacific route in 1Q25. Instead, SITC generated 100% of its revenue from the Asian market.
While OOIL's 0.7x P/B is cheaper than SITC's 2.5x, its FY25 ROE of 10.6% is lower than SITC's 34.6%. SITC's dividend yield is also trending up, against OOIL's down.


China Pair Trade: Long SITC Intl (1308 HK), Short OOIL (316 HK)

<ul>
<li>The 1H25 net profit of US$630m (+79.7% YoY) for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sitc-international-holdings" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15301:1" rel="noopener">SITC International (1308 HK)</a> is impressive. It maintains a generous 70% payout ratio, yielding 4.8% for the interim.</li>
<li>Its outlook for 2H25 stays positive despite the recent pull-back in spot rates. Overall demand-supply dynamics continue to be favourable in the short and medium term.</li>
<li>With interim earnings already accounting for 58% of full-year consensus, there is room for an upgrade. At 3.3x P/B, it is not expensive given 30-40% ROEs. </li>
</ul>


The 1H25 net profit of US$630m (+79.7% YoY) for SITC International (1308 HK) is impressive. It maintains a generous 70% payout ratio, yielding 4.8% for the interim.
Its outlook for 2H25 stays positive despite the recent pull-back in spot rates. Overall demand-supply dynamics continue to be favourable in the short and medium term.
With interim earnings already accounting for 58% of full-year consensus, there is room for an upgrade. At 3.3x P/B, it is not expensive given 30-40% ROEs. 


SITC International (1308 HK): A Charming 1H25

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sitc-international-holdings" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15301:1" rel="noopener">SITC International (1308 HK)</a>'s 93.5% profit growth in FY24 is at the top-end of the positive profit alert. A final DPS of HK$1.4 put it on a 7.3% dividend yield. </li>
<li>The FY25 long-term contract rate is expected to rise 10%, with volume growing at least 5% and lower costs. The consensus forecast of a 23.1% earnings decline is too conservative. </li>
<li>Having an ROE of 32% for FY25F, its 12-month forward P/B of 2.46x (vs. average of 2.59x) with net cash equals 5.4% of market capitalisation are inexpensive. </li>
</ul>



SITC International (1308 HK)'s 93.5% profit growth in FY24 is at the top-end of the positive profit alert. A final DPS of HK$1.4 put it on a 7.3% dividend yield. 
The FY25 long-term contract rate is expected to rise 10%, with volume growing at least 5% and lower costs. The consensus forecast of a 23.1% earnings decline is too conservative. 
Having an ROE of 32% for FY25F, its 12-month forward P/B of 2.46x (vs. average of 2.59x) with net cash equals 5.4% of market capitalisation are inexpensive. 


SITC International (1308 HK): Another Strong Year, with Excellent Yield

<ul>
<li>Together with the just-announced HK$0.40 special DPS, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sitc-international-holdings" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15301:1" rel="noopener">SITC International (1308 HK)</a> has already handed back HK$1.12/share to shareholders YTD, realising a dividend yield of 6.5%.</li>
<li>Its 3Q24 performance is impressive, with revenue surging 56.6% YoY. Both volume (+13.4%) and average freight rates (+44.1%) have exhibited solid momentum. </li>
<li>While the consensus forecasts have been upgraded by 7-11% since the 1H24 result, there appears more room to go. FY24 ROE is now expected to be 32.2%.</li>
</ul>


Together with the just-announced HK$0.40 special DPS, SITC International (1308 HK) has already handed back HK$1.12/share to shareholders YTD, realising a dividend yield of 6.5%.
Its 3Q24 performance is impressive, with revenue surging 56.6% YoY. Both volume (+13.4%) and average freight rates (+44.1%) have exhibited solid momentum. 
While the consensus forecasts have been upgraded by 7-11% since the 1H24 result, there appears more room to go. FY24 ROE is now expected to be 32.2%.


<ul>
<li>The 72.5% decline in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sitc-international-holdings" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15301:1" rel="noopener">SITC International (1308 HK)</a>'s FY23 earnings is disappointing but should already reflected in the share price given the profit warning. Instead, this may be the trough.  </li>
<li>Spot freight rates for key intra-Asia routes have already recovered since 3Q23, with the YTD level higher than the 2H23 average. The 1H24 result may show a sequential rebound.</li>
<li>Even assuming flat YoY earnings in FY24, it still sits on a 9% dividend yield. The projected ROE of over 24% and net cash position mean 1.6-1.7x P/B undemanding.</li>
</ul>


The 72.5% decline in SITC International (1308 HK)'s FY23 earnings is disappointing but should already reflected in the share price given the profit warning. Instead, this may be the trough.  
Spot freight rates for key intra-Asia routes have already recovered since 3Q23, with the YTD level higher than the 2H23 average. The 1H24 result may show a sequential rebound.
Even assuming flat YoY earnings in FY24, it still sits on a 9% dividend yield. The projected ROE of over 24% and net cash position mean 1.6-1.7x P/B undemanding.


SITC International (1308 HK): Bidding Farewell to the Trough

Hong Kong

SITC International Holdings Company Ltd. offers marine shipping services.  The Company offers container liner shipping, freight forwarding, customs clearance, shipping agency, and ship brokerage services.  SITC operates in Asia.

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SITC International (1308 HK)

China Pair Trade: Long SITC Intl (1308 HK), Short OOIL (316 HK)

There is a clear divergence between SITC's and OOIL's 1Q25 operating performance. SITC's revenue grew 38.6%, driven by a 6.8% volume growth and a...

Osbert Tang, CFA