Index Rebal/Special Situations, Quiddity Advisors

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Index Rebal/Special Situations

Quiddity Advisors

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>In this insight, we take a look at the potential index changes for ASX 300, 200, 100, 50, and 20 in the run-up to the March 2024 index review.</li>
<li>I expect one change for ASX 20, one change for ASX 100, and five changes for ASX 200 including a surprise deletion due to long term suspension of a stock.</li>
<li>The official index changes will be announced after the close on Friday 1st March 2024.</li>
</ul>


In this insight, we take a look at the potential index changes for ASX 300, 200, 100, 50, and 20 in the run-up to the March 2024 index review.
I expect one change for ASX 20, one change for ASX 100, and five changes for ASX 200 including a surprise deletion due to long term suspension of a stock.
The official index changes will be announced after the close on Friday 1st March 2024.


Quiddity Leaderboard ASX Mar 24: Five ASX 200 Changes Possible Including One Surprise

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/cie-de-saint-gobain" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21547:1" rel="noopener">Cie De Saint-Gobain (SGO FP)</a> has approached <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/csr-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:17380:1" rel="noopener">CSR Ltd (CSR AU)</a> with a non-binding indicative offer to acquire all of CSR's shares at A$9/share via a scheme of arrangement.</li>
<li>At the last close of CSR (pre-trading halt) the gross spread to the offer price is 13.21%. That will close significantly once the stock resumes trading.</li>
<li>Given the large premium to the last close, at a price higher than the highest high, and support from the CSR Board, the deal should go through.</li>
</ul>



Cie De Saint-Gobain (SGO FP) has approached CSR Ltd (CSR AU) with a non-binding indicative offer to acquire all of CSR's shares at A$9/share via a scheme of arrangement.
At the last close of CSR (pre-trading halt) the gross spread to the offer price is 13.21%. That will close significantly once the stock resumes trading.
Given the large premium to the last close, at a price higher than the highest high, and support from the CSR Board, the deal should go through.


CSR Ltd (CSR AU): Saint-Gobain's A$9/Share Offer

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/seven-group-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:803:1" rel="noopener">Seven Group Holdings (SVW AU)</a> holds 71.59% in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/boral-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1487:1" rel="noopener">Boral Ltd (BLD AU)</a> and is looking to acquire the remaining shares at A$6.05/share via a mix of SVW stock and cash.</li>
<li>The offer consideration ratchets higher to A$6.15/share if SVW's aggregate shareholding reaches 80% and to A$6.25/share if SVW's aggregate shareholding reaches 90.6%.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/seven-group-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:803:1" rel="noopener">Seven Group Holdings (SVW AU)</a> is an addition to a global index at the end of the month and a drop in the stock post inclusion will affect <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/boral-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1487:1" rel="noopener">Boral Ltd</a>.</li>
</ul>



Seven Group Holdings (SVW AU) holds 71.59% in Boral Ltd (BLD AU) and is looking to acquire the remaining shares at A$6.05/share via a mix of SVW stock and cash.
The offer consideration ratchets higher to A$6.15/share if SVW's aggregate shareholding reaches 80% and to A$6.25/share if SVW's aggregate shareholding reaches 90.6%.

Seven Group Holdings (SVW AU) is an addition to a global index at the end of the month and a drop in the stock post inclusion will affect Boral Ltd.


Boral (BLD AU): Seven Group (SVW AU)'s Best & Final Offer

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/renesas-electronics-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15933:1" rel="noopener">Renesas Electronics (6723 JP)</a> has entered a Scheme Implementation Agreement to acquire <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/altium-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18626:1" rel="noopener">Altium Ltd (ALU AU)</a> at A$68.5/share implying an equity value of A$9.1bn and an Enterprise Value of A$8.8bn.</li>
<li>The offer price is a 33.6% premium to the last close and a larger premium to VWAPs ranging from 30 days to 180 days.</li>
<li>There will be ad hoc inclusions to the S&amp;P/ASX 100 Index and the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/s-p-asx-200" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22901:1" rel="noopener">S&amp;P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX)</a> on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/altium-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18626:1" rel="noopener">Altium Ltd (ALU AU)</a>'s last trading day (expected second half of 2024).</li>
</ul>



Renesas Electronics (6723 JP) has entered a Scheme Implementation Agreement to acquire Altium Ltd (ALU AU) at A$68.5/share implying an equity value of A$9.1bn and an Enterprise Value of A$8.8bn.
The offer price is a 33.6% premium to the last close and a larger premium to VWAPs ranging from 30 days to 180 days.
There will be ad hoc inclusions to the S&amp;P/ASX 100 Index and the S&amp;P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX) on Altium Ltd (ALU AU)'s last trading day (expected second half of 2024).


Renesas (6723 JP) To Acquire Altium (ALU AU) In a A$9.1bn Deal

<ul>
<li>With two days left in the review period, there could be 28 adds/deletes across the S&amp;P/ASX family of indices in March.</li>
<li>There is nearly A$1bn to sell in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/newmont-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:40416:1" rel="noopener">Newmont (NEM AU)</a> due to the potential S&amp;P/ASX 20 Index deletion and a large decrease in the number of shares held in Australia.</li>
<li>There could be 2-41 days of ADV to buy in the index inclusions while the impact on the deletions will range between 0.7-24 days of ADV.</li>
</ul>


With two days left in the review period, there could be 28 adds/deletes across the S&amp;P/ASX family of indices in March.
There is nearly A$1bn to sell in Newmont (NEM AU) due to the potential S&amp;P/ASX 20 Index deletion and a large decrease in the number of shares held in Australia.
There could be 2-41 days of ADV to buy in the index inclusions while the impact on the deletions will range between 0.7-24 days of ADV.


S&P/​​​​​​​​​ASX Index Rebalance Preview: Newmont Still Has Nearly A$1bn to Sell

Australia

Siteminder Limited develops an application software. The Company offers technology platform that delivers online users to make bookings for hotels including payment processing, property channels, and business insights solutions, as well as provides consulting services. Siteminder serves customers worldwide.

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SiteMinder (SDR AU)

Quiddity Leaderboard ASX Mar 24: Five ASX 200 Changes Possible Including One Surprise

The ASX index changes will be announced on 1st March 2024. Long-term suspension name Leo Lithium is a potential DEL in March 2024 from the ASX...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Boral (BLD AU): Seven Group (SVW AU)'s Best & Final Offer

Seven Group is an index inclusion and is looking to buy ~28% of Boral via a mix of stock and cash. SVW could drop post the index inclusion and that...

Brian Freitas

Renesas (6723 JP) To Acquire Altium (ALU AU) In a A$9.1bn Deal

Renesas has entered a SIA to acquire Altium at A$68.5/share for an implied equity value of A$9.1bn. The offer price is a 33.6% premium to the last...

Brian Freitas

S&P/ASX Index Rebalance Preview: Newmont Still Has Nearly A$1bn to Sell

There could be 28 adds/deletes across the S&P/ASX family of indices in March. Newmont will have around A$1bn to sell. Shorts have been soaring on...

Brian Freitas

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Quiddity Leaderboard ASX Mar 24: Five ASX 200 Changes Possible Including One Surprise

The ASX index changes will be announced on 1st March 2024. Long-term suspension name Leo Lithium is a potential DEL in March 2024 from the ASX...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

CSR Ltd (CSR AU): Saint-Gobain's A$9/Share Offer

Saint-Gobain has approached CSR with a non-binding indicative offer to acquire all CSR shares at A$9/share. The trend of Construction Materials...

Brian Freitas

Boral (BLD AU): Seven Group (SVW AU)'s Best & Final Offer

Seven Group is an index inclusion and is looking to buy ~28% of Boral via a mix of stock and cash. SVW could drop post the index inclusion and that...

Brian Freitas

Renesas (6723 JP) To Acquire Altium (ALU AU) In a A$9.1bn Deal

Renesas has entered a SIA to acquire Altium at A$68.5/share for an implied equity value of A$9.1bn. The offer price is a 33.6% premium to the last...

Brian Freitas

S&P/​​​​​​​​​ASX Index Rebalance Preview: Newmont Still Has Nearly A$1bn to Sell

There could be 28 adds/deletes across the S&P/ASX family of indices in March. Newmont will have around A$1bn to sell. Shorts have been soaring on...

Brian Freitas

S&P/ASX Index Rebalance Preview: Newmont Still Has Nearly A$1bn to Sell