Pan-Asia Tactical Market Calls (Quant-Driven), MRM Research

Nico Rosti

Pan-Asia Tactical Market Calls (Quant-Driven)

MRM Research

Quantitative Research

Equity Derivatives

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sk-hynix-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16955:1" rel="noopener">SK Hynix (000660 KS)</a> has lost 41% of its value since its peak 1 month ago, a pretty dramatic correction.</li>
<li>No need to state the obvious, 5 weeks down, the stock is ultra-oversold, it should rebound soon but the real question is:how far can the rebound rally go?
</li>
<li>According to our model the upcoming rebound rally is going to be a small rally. Usually this type of rebound pattern can see much lower prices after the 'bounce'.</li>
</ul>



SK Hynix (000660 KS) has lost 41% of its value since its peak 1 month ago, a pretty dramatic correction.
No need to state the obvious, 5 weeks down, the stock is ultra-oversold, it should rebound soon but the real question is:how far can the rebound rally go?

According to our model the upcoming rebound rally is going to be a small rally. Usually this type of rebound pattern can see much lower prices after the 'bounce'.


SK Hynix Tactical Outlook: Imminent Small Rally, And Then?

Managing Director, Zero One, Zero One

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Managing Director, Zero One

Zero One

Founded in 2015, Zero One produces independent investment research and provides corporate finance advisory services with a focus on both listed and private technology companies. Founder Vincent Fernando has over 20 years of experience in US and Asia capital markets.

Independent Investment Research

Equity Bottom-Up

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) / Equity Bottom-Up

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) (TSM US)

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing)

<ul>
<li>AMD committed up to US$5bn to Anthropic against an order for up to 2 gigawatts of MI450 accelerators, the first training-scale commitment to a rack that is not NVIDIA's.</li>
<li>NVIDIA prepaid Amkor US$1.5bn to expand Arizona packaging and planned US$5bn to US$10bn of dark fiber, paying cash upfront for what it does not manufacture.</li>
<li>Korea's supply answer to a 2027 shortage is dated 2030: Samsung plans four new fabs, and SK Hynix reapproved a 7.1 trillion won expansion.</li>
</ul>


AMD committed up to US$5bn to Anthropic against an order for up to 2 gigawatts of MI450 accelerators, the first training-scale commitment to a rack that is not NVIDIA's.
NVIDIA prepaid Amkor US$1.5bn to expand Arizona packaging and planned US$5bn to US$10bn of dark fiber, paying cash upfront for what it does not manufacture.
Korea's supply answer to a 2027 shortage is dated 2030: Samsung plans four new fabs, and SK Hynix reapproved a 7.1 trillion won expansion.


Taiwan Tech Weekly: AMD Wins First Training Chip Order Outside NVIDIA; NVDA Prepays Amkor's Capex

Derivatives and Quantitative Strategist

Gaudenz Schneider

<ul>
<li>KRX-Listed 2x Long ETFs on SK hynix saw AUM retreat from June highs, but investor interest remains substantial with net flows negative on only four out of 20 trading days.</li>
<li>Regulators are stepping in: Korea will triple minimum deposit requirements for single-stock leveraged ETFs from 31 July, responding to the surge in AUM, heightened volatility and persistent inflows documented here.</li>
<li>The inverse ETF is up 64.2% month-to-date as SK hynix declined, yet experiences outflows. Across the segment, ETF flows and daily rebalancing remain relevant for underlying liquidity.</li>
</ul>


KRX-Listed 2x Long ETFs on SK hynix saw AUM retreat from June highs, but investor interest remains substantial with net flows negative on only four out of 20 trading days.
Regulators are stepping in: Korea will triple minimum deposit requirements for single-stock leveraged ETFs from 31 July, responding to the surge in AUM, heightened volatility and persistent inflows documented here.
The inverse ETF is up 64.2% month-to-date as SK hynix declined, yet experiences outflows. Across the segment, ETF flows and daily rebalancing remain relevant for underlying liquidity.


SK Hynix (000660 KS): Persistent Leveraged ETF Inflows Precede Tighter Rules

Korea / Special Situations, Clepsydra Capital

Sanghyun Park

Korea / Special Situations

Korea / Special Sits, Pairs, Index Rebalancing

Clepsydra Capital

Investigate special situations, pairs, and index rebalancing trades in Korea.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>KSD CEO confirms 2.5%t hard cap on ADR conversion despite 25% SEC headroom. Two way conversion starts July 29, but scaling the cap is fully Hynix call.</li>
<li>Hynix not pushing 2.5% cap hike, instead engaging FSC on ADR registration including third-party conversions. Market confused as past exemptions existed, raising questions on intent and signaling possible hidden agenda.</li>
<li>Market suspects Hynix may limit ADR pool expansion to capture premium, using FSC registration talks as cover. Base case is gradual pool opening with controlled conversion flow.</li>
</ul>


KSD CEO confirms 2.5%t hard cap on ADR conversion despite 25% SEC headroom. Two way conversion starts July 29, but scaling the cap is fully Hynix call.
Hynix not pushing 2.5% cap hike, instead engaging FSC on ADR registration including third-party conversions. Market confused as past exemptions existed, raising questions on intent and signaling possible hidden agenda.
Market suspects Hynix may limit ADR pool expansion to capture premium, using FSC registration talks as cover. Base case is gradual pool opening with controlled conversion flow.


KSD Confirms Hynix ADR 2.5% Hard Cap, Only Hynix Can Expand It. Outlook on the Actual Playbook

AI | Semiconductors | Commodities, Mint Finance

Raghav Vashisht

AI | Semiconductors | Commodities

Deep Fundamental Analysis

Mint Finance

Mint Finance's investment research blends deep fundamental analysis with technical & quant insights. Investment strategies straddle across multiple asset classes with risk management embedded into every trade to deliver an outsized reward-to-risk ratio.

Mint Finance's research is centered around three key themes. First, energy transition and climate change. Second, artificial intelligence. Third, shifting world order with its impact across politics and monetary economics.

<ul>
<li>Despite 33.7% revenue growth, TSMC faces a definitive margin squeeze in H2 2026 as the 2nm ramp and overseas fab expansions overwhelm recent aggressive price hikes.</li>
<li>CoWoS yield bottlenecks compound the existing capacity constraints, making the sudden embrace of Intel's EMIB-driven "flexibility" a convenient smokescreen for underlying performance issues.</li>
<li>Management continues to deflect long-term quantitative guidance, and the recently finalised price hikes taking effect in 2027 will arrive too late to rescue near-term profitability contraction.</li>
</ul>


Despite 33.7% revenue growth, TSMC faces a definitive margin squeeze in H2 2026 as the 2nm ramp and overseas fab expansions overwhelm recent aggressive price hikes.
CoWoS yield bottlenecks compound the existing capacity constraints, making the sudden embrace of Intel's EMIB-driven "flexibility" a convenient smokescreen for underlying performance issues.
Management continues to deflect long-term quantitative guidance, and the recently finalised price hikes taking effect in 2027 will arrive too late to rescue near-term profitability contraction.


Decoding TSMC's Transition from Offence to Defence

South Korea

SK hynix Inc. provides products and services for the electronic components industries. The Company manufactures semiconductors such as dynamic random access memory (DRAM), NAND flash memory, and static random access memory (SRAM) chips.

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SK Hynix (SKHY US)

SK Hynix Tactical Outlook: Imminent Small Rally, And Then?

SK Hynix has lost 41% of its value in a month, now ultra-oversold - a small rebound rally is imminent, but the question is: how far can it go?

Nico Rosti

Taiwan Tech Weekly: AMD Wins First Training Chip Order Outside NVIDIA; NVDA Prepays Amkor's Capex

AMD commits $5bn to Anthropic for it to buy AI training accelerators, NVIDIA prepaying for Arizona packaging, Samsung and SK Hynix plan expansions...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

SK Hynix (000660 KS): Persistent Leveraged ETF Inflows Precede Tighter Rules

KRX-Listed 2x Long ETFs on SK hynix see AUM dip but investor interest stays strong. Korea to triple deposit requirements for leveraged ETFs amid...

Gaudenz Schneider

KSD Confirms Hynix ADR 2.5% Hard Cap, Only Hynix Can Expand It. Outlook on the Actual Playbook

KSD Head officially confirms Hynix ADR conversion is subject to a 2.5% hard cap, and only Hynix can increase it. Outlook on Hynix’s actual playbook.

Sanghyun Park

Decoding TSMC's Transition from Offence to Defence

TSMC's revenue growth is overshadowed by margin squeeze due to capacity constraints and delayed price hikes, with Intel's EMIB technology serving...

Mint Finance

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Market Cap (USDm)

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SK Hynix Tactical Outlook: Imminent Small Rally, And Then?

​SK Hynix has lost 41% of its value in a month, now ultra-oversold - a small rebound rally is imminent, but the question is: how far can it go?

Nico Rosti

Taiwan Tech Weekly: AMD Wins First Training Chip Order Outside NVIDIA; NVDA Prepays Amkor's Capex

​AMD commits $5bn to Anthropic for it to buy AI training accelerators, NVIDIA prepaying for Arizona packaging, Samsung and SK Hynix plan expansions...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

SK Hynix (000660 KS): Persistent Leveraged ETF Inflows Precede Tighter Rules

​KRX-Listed 2x Long ETFs on SK hynix see AUM dip but investor interest stays strong. Korea to triple deposit requirements for leveraged ETFs amid...

Gaudenz Schneider

KSD Confirms Hynix ADR 2.5% Hard Cap, Only Hynix Can Expand It. Outlook on the Actual Playbook

KSD Head officially confirms Hynix ADR conversion is subject to a 2.5% hard cap, and only Hynix can increase it. Outlook on Hynix’s actual playbook.

Sanghyun Park

Decoding TSMC's Transition from Offence to Defence

​TSMC's revenue growth is overshadowed by margin squeeze due to capacity constraints and delayed price hikes, with Intel's EMIB technology serving...

Mint Finance

SK Hynix has lost 41% of its value in a month, now ultra-oversold - a small rebound rally is imminent, but the question is: how far can it go?

AMD commits $5bn to Anthropic for it to buy AI training accelerators, NVIDIA prepaying for Arizona packaging, Samsung and SK Hynix plan expansions...

KRX-Listed 2x Long ETFs on SK hynix see AUM dip but investor interest stays strong. Korea to triple deposit requirements for leveraged ETFs amid...

TSMC's revenue growth is overshadowed by margin squeeze due to capacity constraints and delayed price hikes, with Intel's EMIB technology serving...