Tracking developments across tech supply chains, Tech Supply Chain Tracker

Tech Supply Chain Tracker

Tracking developments across tech supply chains

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>Merck to establish new advanced materials center in Japan, expanding global presence in innovative materials science field.</li><li>Global smartphones market projected to see growth in 3Q 2024, suggesting sustained demand and continuous innovation in tech sector.</li><li>US government unveils quadrennial supply chain review to enhance national security and boost domestic production, with focus on semiconductor manufacturing.</li></ul>

Merck to establish new advanced materials center in Japan, expanding global presence in innovative materials science field.Global smartphones market projected to see growth in 3Q 2024, suggesting sustained demand and continuous innovation in tech sector.US government unveils quadrennial supply chain review to enhance national security and boost domestic production, with focus on semiconductor manufacturing.

Tech Supply Chain Tracker (21-Dec-2024): Merck opens new materials center in Japan.

<ul><li>Apple's Intelligence service is working towards a launch in China, but is facing challenges with integrating Baidu.</li><li>NXP may be investing a significant amount of money in Karnataka, India.</li><li>Intel's interim leadership team is bringing together new ideas and industry experience for a promising future, while South Korea and Japan work to mitigate US export controls on HBM.</li></ul>

Apple's Intelligence service is working towards a launch in China, but is facing challenges with integrating Baidu.NXP may be investing a significant amount of money in Karnataka, India.Intel's interim leadership team is bringing together new ideas and industry experience for a promising future, while South Korea and Japan work to mitigate US export controls on HBM.

Tech Supply Chain Tracker (07-Dec-2024): Apple Intelligence targets China despite Baidu challenges

Asset Allocation & Fund Positioning, Copley Fund Research

Steven Holden

Asset Allocation & Fund Positioning

Copley Fund Research

Copley Fund Research provide research and data on asset allocation among Global and Emerging Market equity funds.  The analysis details absolute and relative positioning across countries, sectors and industries together with highly granular data on single stock and single fund allocations.  The data is updated monthly with time series going back to January 2011.

Global Research - Analysis of 165 prominent Global equity funds, combined AUM $335bn
GEM Research - Analysis of 127 prominent global EM equity funds, combined AUM $250bn

Asset Allocation - Global and GEM Equity

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>Active EM funds average +26.0% YTD, their strongest year since 2017, though still underperforming the benchmark by -1.8%. Fewer than 40% have outpaced the iShares MSCI EM ETF.</li>
<li>Style and regional positioning drove dispersion. Value managers and South Korea exposure supported gains, while Aggressive Growth styles and India-heavy allocations weighed on returns. High Active Share strategies also trailed.</li>
<li>Active EM outperformance remains consistent long-term. Active funds have beaten the benchmark in 14 of the past 22 years, with the ETF often ranking near the peer group median.</li>
</ul>


Active EM funds average +26.0% YTD, their strongest year since 2017, though still underperforming the benchmark by -1.8%. Fewer than 40% have outpaced the iShares MSCI EM ETF.
Style and regional positioning drove dispersion. Value managers and South Korea exposure supported gains, while Aggressive Growth styles and India-heavy allocations weighed on returns. High Active Share strategies also trailed.
Active EM outperformance remains consistent long-term. Active funds have beaten the benchmark in 14 of the past 22 years, with the ETF often ranking near the peer group median.


EM Active Funds: What’s Driving Performance in 2025?

Technology / Semiconductor / Internet Research

Nicolas Baratte

<ul>
<li>SK Hynix and Micron stocks were lagging TSMC and Nvidia as it took ~2 years for HBM to suck up enough Commodity DRAM capacity to stabilize the Commodity market</li>
<li>That’s now done, we’re just at the beginning of spectacular HBM growth for at least 2 more years. The reasons are known: density increases, speed increases, dies thinner...</li>
<li>Stocks: keep or buy Micron and SK Hynix. Samsung remains unattractive imo</li>
</ul>


SK Hynix and Micron stocks were lagging TSMC and Nvidia as it took ~2 years for HBM to suck up enough Commodity DRAM capacity to stabilize the Commodity market
That’s now done, we’re just at the beginning of spectacular HBM growth for at least 2 more years. The reasons are known: density increases, speed increases, dies thinner...
Stocks: keep or buy Micron and SK Hynix. Samsung remains unattractive imo


HBM Stocks Will Keep Running (Micron, SK Hynix), It’s Just the Beginning

Chief Executive Officer, Emmer Capital Partners Limited

Manishi Raychaudhuri

Chief Executive Officer

Emmer Capital Partners Limited

Emmer Capital Partners is an Asia Pacific focused financial advisory firm engaging in strategic financial asset allocation advice, bespoke thematic research and advising early-stage companies and connecting them to investors. Emmer Capital provides macro-economic and multi-asset investment strategy inputs to institutions, family offices, private wealth managers, private equity, and corporate boards directly and through independent research platforms. Emmer Capital also advises a wide range of startup companies on fund raising and business strategy. Emmer Capital's active engagement with the print and electronic media reaches a broad spectrum of investors across the globe.

<ul>
<li>Over 2024 and 2025, Asia-ex-Japan equities are up c30%. During this period, the 12-month forward EPS has expanded only 5.6%. Forward EPS recovery is essential to take the market higher.</li>
<li>Over the medium to long term, share prices track earnings, as we notice in our long-term analysis of forward EPS trajectory and market movement. Disjoint movements usually mean revert quickly.</li>
<li>Forward EPS could move up further in China, Korea, Taiwan and Thailand. Hong Kong has overshot its forward EPS trajectory. Philippines has massively undershot. Other markets appear broadly in line.</li>
</ul>


Over 2024 and 2025, Asia-ex-Japan equities are up c30%. During this period, the 12-month forward EPS has expanded only 5.6%. Forward EPS recovery is essential to take the market higher.
Over the medium to long term, share prices track earnings, as we notice in our long-term analysis of forward EPS trajectory and market movement. Disjoint movements usually mean revert quickly.
Forward EPS could move up further in China, Korea, Taiwan and Thailand. Hong Kong has overshot its forward EPS trajectory. Philippines has massively undershot. Other markets appear broadly in line.


Asian Equities: After Two Years of Rerating, Will Earnings Catch up in 2026?

South Korea

SK Hynix Inc. provides products and services for the electronic components industry. The Company manufactures semiconductors, such as dynamic random access memory (DRAM), NAND flash memory, and static random access memory (SRAM) chips.

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SK Hynix (000660 KS)

Tech Supply Chain Tracker (21-Dec-2024): Merck opens new materials center in Japan.

Merck to build advanced materials center in Japan, global smartphone market to grow in 3Q 2024, US gov't releases supply chain review, SK Hynix...

Tech Supply Chain Tracker

Tech Supply Chain Tracker (07-Dec-2024): Apple Intelligence targets China despite Baidu challenges

Apple's Intelligence service plans China launch but faces hurdles, NXP may invest big in Karnataka, global notebook shipment forecasted for 2025,...

Tech Supply Chain Tracker

EM Active Funds: What’s Driving Performance in 2025?

Active EM funds are up 26.0% YTD—on track for their best year since 2017. Style, geography, and benchmark-independence remain key drivers of...

Steven Holden

HBM Stocks Will Keep Running (Micron, SK Hynix), It’s Just the Beginning

HBM revenue and profit growth set to soar, Micron and SK Hynix stocks recommended for investment. Samsung not as appealing.

Nicolas Baratte

Asian Equities: After Two Years of Rerating, Will Earnings Catch up in 2026?

Asia-ex-Japan equities have surged, but forward EPS growth is lagging. Nascent signs of EPS recovery in CN, KR, TW & TH. HK market has overshot...

Manishi Raychaudhuri

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Market Cap (USDm)

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Tech Supply Chain Tracker (21-Dec-2024): Merck opens new materials center in Japan.

Merck to build advanced materials center in Japan, global smartphone market to grow in 3Q 2024, US gov't releases supply chain review, SK Hynix...

Tech Supply Chain Tracker

Tech Supply Chain Tracker (07-Dec-2024): Apple Intelligence targets China despite Baidu challenges

Apple's Intelligence service plans China launch but faces hurdles, NXP may invest big in Karnataka, global notebook shipment forecasted for 2025,...

Tech Supply Chain Tracker

EM Active Funds: What’s Driving Performance in 2025?

Active EM funds are up 26.0% YTD—on track for their best year since 2017. Style, geography, and benchmark-independence remain key drivers of...

Steven Holden

HBM Stocks Will Keep Running (Micron, SK Hynix), It’s Just the Beginning

​HBM revenue and profit growth set to soar, Micron and SK Hynix stocks recommended for investment. Samsung not as appealing.

Nicolas Baratte

Asian Equities: After Two Years of Rerating, Will Earnings Catch up in 2026?

​Asia-ex-Japan equities have surged, but forward EPS growth is lagging. Nascent signs of EPS recovery in CN, KR, TW & TH. HK market has overshot...

Manishi Raychaudhuri

HBM revenue and profit growth set to soar, Micron and SK Hynix stocks recommended for investment. Samsung not as appealing.

Asia-ex-Japan equities have surged, but forward EPS growth is lagging. Nascent signs of EPS recovery in CN, KR, TW & TH. HK market has overshot...