Technology / Semiconductor / Internet Research

Nicolas Baratte

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>3Q results inline at Revenue and Operating levels. Net Income 13% above Consensus. SK Hynix doesn’t provide guidance but “indications”, pointing to KRW 20bn revenues in 4Q, close to consensus.</li>
<li>HBM capacity for 2025 is already sold out. Accelerating launch cadence: HBM3e 12Hi in 4Q24, HBM4 in 2H25. This should create a wider gap with competitors Micron and Samsung.</li>
<li>The stock is very cheap and very compelling, trading at 5.3x 2025 EPS and 1.6x book value for 30% ROE. Very cheap considering HBM visibility and leadership. </li>
</ul>


3Q results inline at Revenue and Operating levels. Net Income 13% above Consensus. SK Hynix doesn’t provide guidance but “indications”, pointing to KRW 20bn revenues in 4Q, close to consensus.
HBM capacity for 2025 is already sold out. Accelerating launch cadence: HBM3e 12Hi in 4Q24, HBM4 in 2H25. This should create a wider gap with competitors Micron and Samsung.
The stock is very cheap and very compelling, trading at 5.3x 2025 EPS and 1.6x book value for 30% ROE. Very cheap considering HBM visibility and leadership. 


SK Hynix 3Q24 Inline, 4Q Close to Consensus, HBM Visibility Is Very High, the Stock Is Very Cheap

Equity Long-Short, Semiconductors, Fabricated Knowledge

Douglas O'Laughlin

Equity Long-Short, Semiconductors

Fabricated Knowledge

Learn more about the world's most important manufactured product. Meaningful insight, timely analysis, and an occasional investment idea.

<ul>
<li>Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang has repeatedly emphasized that the data center is the new unit of compute.</li>
<li>While this concept seemed straightforward at first, the deeper implications became clearer after Nvidia's presentations at GTC and OFC 2024.</li>
<li>I only recently grasped exactly what is happening, and a simple reframing of the underlying principles that drove Moore’s Law makes the entire picture clearer.</li>
</ul>


Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang has repeatedly emphasized that the data center is the new unit of compute.
While this concept seemed straightforward at first, the deeper implications became clearer after Nvidia's presentations at GTC and OFC 2024.
I only recently grasped exactly what is happening, and a simple reframing of the underlying principles that drove Moore’s Law makes the entire picture clearer.


The Data Center is the New Compute Unit: Nvidia's Vision for System-Level Scaling

<ul>
<li>
Investing in semiconductors can be pretty simple if you let it be.
</li>
<li>
At a high level, I believe you want to invest in the secular at a decent price or invest in places where there are unwarranted dislocations.
</li>
<li>
Sometimes the entire ecosystem says one thing and the stocks say another. Usually, the ecosystem is right.

</li>
</ul>



Investing in semiconductors can be pretty simple if you let it be.


At a high level, I believe you want to invest in the secular at a decent price or invest in places where there are unwarranted dislocations.


Sometimes the entire ecosystem says one thing and the stocks say another. Usually, the ecosystem is right.




<ul><li>KLA had a rare miss. The guidance was a bit light for the inspection execution machine.</li><li>KLA rarely misses and is by far the best financially managed of the large-cap semicap companies.</li><li>KLA reports Q2 EPS $6.16 ex-items vs FactSet $5.91</li></ul>

KLA had a rare miss. The guidance was a bit light for the inspection execution machine.KLA rarely misses and is by far the best financially managed of the large-cap semicap companies.KLA reports Q2 EPS $6.16 ex-items vs FactSet $5.91

KLA & LaserTec, AMD, Hyperscaler Capex, SK Hynix, SWKS and QRVO, WOLF, MCHP

Asia and Global Semiconductor and Tech Research

Andrew Lu

<ul>
<li>We see early signs of recovery in PC and smartphone markets, stable server market (strengths in AI server, stable in non-AI server market), but weaknesses in automotive and industrial.</li>
<li>We expect the PC semi market recovery of more than 10% y/y in 2024/2025, driven by inventory rebuild and silicon contents increase by adding AI into PC.</li>
<li>We expect the smartphone semi market recovery of 7-8% y/y in 2024/2025, driven by inventory rebuild and adopting 3nE foundry node. But, Huawei/HiSilicon will take some of the growth.</li>
</ul>


We see early signs of recovery in PC and smartphone markets, stable server market (strengths in AI server, stable in non-AI server market), but weaknesses in automotive and industrial.
We expect the PC semi market recovery of more than 10% y/y in 2024/2025, driven by inventory rebuild and silicon contents increase by adding AI into PC.
We expect the smartphone semi market recovery of 7-8% y/y in 2024/2025, driven by inventory rebuild and adopting 3nE foundry node. But, Huawei/HiSilicon will take some of the growth.


First Run of Global Semis' Guidances to Tell Early Signs of Recovery

South Korea

SK Hynix Inc. provides products and services for the electronic components industry. The Company manufactures semiconductors, such as dynamic random access memory (DRAM), NAND flash memory, and static random access memory (SRAM) chips.

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SK Hynix (000660 KS)

SK Hynix 3Q24 Inline, 4Q Close to Consensus, HBM Visibility Is Very High, the Stock Is Very Cheap

SK Hynix reports inline 3Q results. HBM capacity is sold out for 2025 and the launching schedule should outpace competitors and widen SK Hynix...

Nicolas Baratte

The Data Center is the New Compute Unit: Nvidia's Vision for System-Level Scaling

Copper, Cooling, and Compute Density: The Pillars of Nvidia's Data Center Vision. Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang has repeatedly emphasized that the data...

Fabricated Knowledge

Why HBM is the Hottest Thing in Memory

Micron's earnings is just a rehash of what I already talked about. Memory pricing increase is driven by HBM shifting the mix of investment there,...

Fabricated Knowledge

KLA & LaserTec, AMD, Hyperscaler Capex, SK Hynix, SWKS and QRVO, WOLF, MCHP

Another week of earnings, with KLA having a rare miss and the guidance being a bit light for the inspection execution machine.

Fabricated Knowledge

First Run of Global Semis' Guidances to Tell Early Signs of Recovery

After the first Run of global semis' guidance, it tells early signs of recovery in PC and smartphone but weaknesses in automotive and industrial,...

Andrew Lu

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SK Hynix 3Q24 Inline, 4Q Close to Consensus, HBM Visibility Is Very High, the Stock Is Very Cheap

​SK Hynix reports inline 3Q results. HBM capacity is sold out for 2025 and the launching schedule should outpace competitors and widen SK Hynix...

Nicolas Baratte

The Data Center is the New Compute Unit: Nvidia's Vision for System-Level Scaling

Copper, Cooling, and Compute Density: The Pillars of Nvidia's Data Center Vision. Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang has repeatedly emphasized that the data...

Fabricated Knowledge

Why HBM is the Hottest Thing in Memory

Micron's earnings is just a rehash of what I already talked about. Memory pricing increase is driven by HBM shifting the mix of investment there,...

Fabricated Knowledge

KLA & LaserTec, AMD, Hyperscaler Capex, SK Hynix, SWKS and QRVO, WOLF, MCHP

Another week of earnings, with KLA having a rare miss and the guidance being a bit light for the inspection execution machine.

Fabricated Knowledge

First Run of Global Semis' Guidances to Tell Early Signs of Recovery

After the first Run of global semis' guidance, it tells early signs of recovery in PC and smartphone but weaknesses in automotive and industrial,...

Andrew Lu

SK Hynix reports inline 3Q results. HBM capacity is sold out for 2025 and the launching schedule should outpace competitors and widen SK Hynix...