Korea / Special Situations, Clepsydra Capital

Sanghyun Park

Korea / Special Situations

Korea / Special Sits, Pairs, Index Rebalancing

Clepsydra Capital

Investigate special situations, pairs, and index rebalancing trades in Korea.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Street chatter says Hynix’s HBM4 hike tops ~20%, not covering costs — and Nvidia’s pushing similar cuts on its flagship 12-Hi HBM3E.</li>
<li>Yeouido’s watching “Blind” posts from Samsung engineers saying 1c 12-Hi HBM4 yields look strong — fueling bets Samsung will cut prices, ramp HBM3E now, and challenge Hynix in HBM4.</li>
<li>In Yeouido, the Samsung long/Hynix short theme is seen as a structural trade through 1H next year amid Hynix’s contract uncertainty and Samsung’s supply entry potential.</li>
</ul>


Street chatter says Hynix’s HBM4 hike tops ~20%, not covering costs — and Nvidia’s pushing similar cuts on its flagship 12-Hi HBM3E.
Yeouido’s watching “Blind” posts from Samsung engineers saying 1c 12-Hi HBM4 yields look strong — fueling bets Samsung will cut prices, ramp HBM3E now, and challenge Hynix in HBM4.
In Yeouido, the Samsung long/Hynix short theme is seen as a structural trade through 1H next year amid Hynix’s contract uncertainty and Samsung’s supply entry potential.


Yeouido Views Grow: Hynix’s Contract Risks & Samsung Supply Push Drive Long-Short Play Through 1H26

<ul>
<li>Samsung’s playing its old game—sacrificing margins to shake rivals—aiming to disrupt DRAM and win HBM4, assuming it clears NVIDIA’s HBM3E qual test soon.</li>
<li>Local intel says no official word from Samsung yet, but the street thinks qual’s done—hence Samsung’s bold HBM3E tone and oversupply warning on the call.</li>
<li>There’s urgency—Samsung’s undercutting Hynix now to stop them from reinvesting cash into DRAM fab expansion, a playbook Samsung once dominated with.</li>
</ul>


Samsung’s playing its old game—sacrificing margins to shake rivals—aiming to disrupt DRAM and win HBM4, assuming it clears NVIDIA’s HBM3E qual test soon.
Local intel says no official word from Samsung yet, but the street thinks qual’s done—hence Samsung’s bold HBM3E tone and oversupply warning on the call.
There’s urgency—Samsung’s undercutting Hynix now to stop them from reinvesting cash into DRAM fab expansion, a playbook Samsung once dominated with.


Managing Director, Zero One, Zero One

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Managing Director, Zero One

Zero One

Founded in 2015, Zero One produces independent investment research and provides corporate finance advisory services with a focus on both listed and private technology companies. Founder Vincent Fernando has over 20 years of experience in US and Asia capital markets.

Independent Investment Research

<ul>
<li>From Cycles to Systems: Memory's Pivot to Strategic AI Infrastructure</li>
<li>SK Hynix Leads in HBM4 Execution Thus Far; But How This Next HBM Advancement is Carved Up Remains to Be Seen</li>
<li>Conclusion: Memory Market Becoming Less Commoditized and More Specialized into Advanced Categories</li>
</ul>


From Cycles to Systems: Memory's Pivot to Strategic AI Infrastructure
SK Hynix Leads in HBM4 Execution Thus Far; But How This Next HBM Advancement is Carved Up Remains to Be Seen
Conclusion: Memory Market Becoming Less Commoditized and More Specialized into Advanced Categories


Memory Monitor: SK Hynix Vs. Micron -- Different Speeds & Focus, Same Structural Shift

Technology / Semiconductor / Internet Research

Nicolas Baratte

<ul>
<li>2Q25 beats consensus by 5% with a number of unexpected moves: NAND and Commodity DRAM shipments a lot higher than expected, hence weaker ASP (more commodity), margins decline QoQ. </li>
<li>HBM positive messages: HBM sales double in 2025, we now have secured visibility on next year's demand”, leading to higher capex in 2025, HBM will continue to enjoy strong growth. </li>
<li>But a lack of concrete numbers (HBM, eSSD % of revenue), 2025-26 Capex, capacity increase, etc means that the market will not find grounds to have a more positive view. </li>
</ul>


2Q25 beats consensus by 5% with a number of unexpected moves: NAND and Commodity DRAM shipments a lot higher than expected, hence weaker ASP (more commodity), margins decline QoQ. 
HBM positive messages: HBM sales double in 2025, we now have secured visibility on next year's demand”, leading to higher capex in 2025, HBM will continue to enjoy strong growth. 
But a lack of concrete numbers (HBM, eSSD % of revenue), 2025-26 Capex, capacity increase, etc means that the market will not find grounds to have a more positive view. 


SK Hynix: Good 2Q, Positive Messages but No 2026 Guidance Means that Market’s Doubts Will Remain

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>When the SK Hynix ETF drops, expect meaningful physical buying shaking up supply-demand. Arb desks and alpha shops could pile in early, pushing the stock higher on flow.</li>
<li>Going long Hynix near listing could pay off if demand mirrors Samsung’s—ETF flows, NAV arb, and delta hedging drove a 4% jump with a noticeable increase in program buying.</li>
<li>Get in around the listing, watch flows, and take profits quickly. This is a short 2–3 day tactical play, with sharper front-running expected based on the Samsung ETF template.</li>
</ul>


When the SK Hynix ETF drops, expect meaningful physical buying shaking up supply-demand. Arb desks and alpha shops could pile in early, pushing the stock higher on flow.
Going long Hynix near listing could pay off if demand mirrors Samsung’s—ETF flows, NAV arb, and delta hedging drove a 4% jump with a noticeable increase in program buying.
Get in around the listing, watch flows, and take profits quickly. This is a short 2–3 day tactical play, with sharper front-running expected based on the Samsung ETF template.


SK Hynix Single-Stock ETF Scheduled for 3Q: Watch for a Repeat of the Samsung ETF Playbook

South Korea

SK Hynix Inc. provides products and services for the electronic components industry. The Company manufactures semiconductors, such as dynamic random access memory (DRAM), NAND flash memory, and static random access memory (SRAM) chips.

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SK Hynix (000660 KS)

Yeouido Views Grow: Hynix’s Contract Risks & Samsung Supply Push Drive Long-Short Play Through 1H26

Momentum is building in Yeouido around the Samsung long, Hynix short trade, now seen as a key structural theme through 1H next year amid Hynix’s...

Sanghyun Park

Inside Samsung’s HBM3E Chicken Game

This post dives into Samsung’s HBM3E chicken game—a high-stakes move to disrupt margins and reclaim market share ahead of the HBM4 shift.

Sanghyun Park

Memory Monitor: SK Hynix Vs. Micron -- Different Speeds & Focus, Same Structural Shift

The memory market is shifting towards specialized AI infrastructure, with SK Hynix leading in HBM4 execution. #AI #memory #technology

Vincent Fernando, CFA

SK Hynix: Good 2Q, Positive Messages but No 2026 Guidance Means that Market’s Doubts Will Remain

2Q25 beats consensus, unexpected moves in NAND and Commodity DRAM shipments, leading to weaker ASP and margin decline. HBM sales double in 2025,...

Nicolas Baratte

SK Hynix Single-Stock ETF Scheduled for 3Q: Watch for a Repeat of the Samsung ETF Playbook

This post dives into the SK Hynix single-stock ETF set to launch in Q3—keep an eye out for a replay of the Samsung ETF playbook.

Sanghyun Park

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Yeouido Views Grow: Hynix’s Contract Risks & Samsung Supply Push Drive Long-Short Play Through 1H26

Momentum is building in Yeouido around the Samsung long, Hynix short trade, now seen as a key structural theme through 1H next year amid Hynix’s...

Sanghyun Park

Inside Samsung’s HBM3E Chicken Game

This post dives into Samsung’s HBM3E chicken game—a high-stakes move to disrupt margins and reclaim market share ahead of the HBM4 shift.

Sanghyun Park

Memory Monitor: SK Hynix Vs. Micron -- Different Speeds & Focus, Same Structural Shift

​The memory market is shifting towards specialized AI infrastructure, with SK Hynix leading in HBM4 execution. #AI #memory #technology

Vincent Fernando, CFA

SK Hynix: Good 2Q, Positive Messages but No 2026 Guidance Means that Market’s Doubts Will Remain

​2Q25 beats consensus, unexpected moves in NAND and Commodity DRAM shipments, leading to weaker ASP and margin decline. HBM sales double in 2025,...

Nicolas Baratte

SK Hynix Single-Stock ETF Scheduled for 3Q: Watch for a Repeat of the Samsung ETF Playbook

This post dives into the SK Hynix single-stock ETF set to launch in Q3—keep an eye out for a replay of the Samsung ETF playbook.

Sanghyun Park

The memory market is shifting towards specialized AI infrastructure, with SK Hynix leading in HBM4 execution. #AI #memory #technology

2Q25 beats consensus, unexpected moves in NAND and Commodity DRAM shipments, leading to weaker ASP and margin decline. HBM sales double in 2025,...