Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>We remain near-term bullish since our 4/22/25 Compass, and our intermediate-term outlook remains bullish as well (as of our 5/14/25 Compass).</li>
<li>We will maintain our bullish view as long as market dynamics remain healthy and the SPX and ACWI-US are above 5700-5785 and $120-$121 (up from 5500 and $115).</li>
<li>We are upgrading Korea(KOSPI) to overweight; we discussed May 30 several Financials and other stocks to buy. KOSPI has exploded higher since, and is now reversing its 2-year RS downtrend.</li>
</ul>


We remain near-term bullish since our 4/22/25 Compass, and our intermediate-term outlook remains bullish as well (as of our 5/14/25 Compass).
We will maintain our bullish view as long as market dynamics remain healthy and the SPX and ACWI-US are above 5700-5785 and $120-$121 (up from 5500 and $115).
We are upgrading Korea(KOSPI) to overweight; we discussed May 30 several Financials and other stocks to buy. KOSPI has exploded higher since, and is now reversing its 2-year RS downtrend.


Upgrading Korea to Overweight; MSCI ACWI and Emerging Market Breakouts

Korea / Special Situations, Clepsydra Capital

Sanghyun Park

Korea / Special Situations

Korea / Special Sits, Pairs, Index Rebalancing

Clepsydra Capital

Investigate special situations, pairs, and index rebalancing trades in Korea.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Fresh local chatter links Samsung and Hynix accelerating buyback completion to the DRAM price fixing litigation, with September 29 CMC and October 21 MTD as key binary events.</li>
<li>MTD denial could shift the narrative from supply discipline to coordinated supply discipline, with Micron's divergent stance and tight Samsung and Hynix inventories adding to legal overhang.</li>
<li>The key trading window may be Sep 29 to Oct 21, as the CMC could signal discovery scope and trigger front running of the MTD outcome.</li>
</ul>


Fresh local chatter links Samsung and Hynix accelerating buyback completion to the DRAM price fixing litigation, with September 29 CMC and October 21 MTD as key binary events.
MTD denial could shift the narrative from supply discipline to coordinated supply discipline, with Micron's divergent stance and tight Samsung and Hynix inventories adding to legal overhang.
The key trading window may be Sep 29 to Oct 21, as the CMC could signal discovery scope and trigger front running of the MTD outcome.


Trading Setup from Samsung and Hynix Timing Buyback Completion Around Litigation Key Dates

Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal, Shenton Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China Biotech

Shenton Research

Shenton Research is an independent Asia Pacific equity specialist. Our quantitative research covers index rebalancing flows, alongside exchange data analytics accross Asia Pacific. On the equity capital markets side, we focus on Asia Pacific ECM, especially biotech and TMT. Our lead analyst is frequently cited by international media.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyzed the changes in foreign holdings of KRX stocks as of Sep 18th. The aggregated holding was USD1,670.3bn.</li>
<li>We estimate that foreign flows to be outflows of USD8,838mln. We tabulate the league table for top changes by value for 1W/4W/1Y and top stocks held by foreign institutions.</li>
<li>We highlight changes of foreign holdings in SK Hynix, Samsung Electronics, Samsung Elec (PREF), DOOSAN, Doosan Enerbility.</li>
</ul>


We analyzed the changes in foreign holdings of KRX stocks as of Sep 18th. The aggregated holding was USD1,670.3bn.
We estimate that foreign flows to be outflows of USD8,838mln. We tabulate the league table for top changes by value for 1W/4W/1Y and top stocks held by foreign institutions.
We highlight changes of foreign holdings in SK Hynix, Samsung Electronics, Samsung Elec (PREF), DOOSAN, Doosan Enerbility.


KRX Foreign Holding Weekly (Sep 18th): SK Hynix, Samsung Electronics, Samsung Elec (PREF), DOOSAN

<ul>
<li>Local concerns are resurfacing over Hynix and Samsung’s low utilization, with further GMR cuts potentially exposing deliberate production curbs, though KRW strength remains supportive for buybacks.</li>
<li>Hynix and Samsung’s dollar selling may be slowing as FX driven GMR deterioration risks exposing low utilization, while regulators increasingly flag KRW volatility.</li>
<li>Hynix ADR funding faces rising regulatory hurdles amid FX volatility, potentially delaying buyback funding and forcing slower dollar selling, creating a near term stock price pivot.</li>
</ul>


Local concerns are resurfacing over Hynix and Samsung’s low utilization, with further GMR cuts potentially exposing deliberate production curbs, though KRW strength remains supportive for buybacks.
Hynix and Samsung’s dollar selling may be slowing as FX driven GMR deterioration risks exposing low utilization, while regulators increasingly flag KRW volatility.
Hynix ADR funding faces rising regulatory hurdles amid FX volatility, potentially delaying buyback funding and forcing slower dollar selling, creating a near term stock price pivot.


Setup Pointing to Hynix (And Samsung) Slowing Their Dollar Selling Pretty Soon

Asset Allocation & Fund Positioning, Copley Fund Research

Steven Holden

Asset Allocation & Fund Positioning

Copley Fund Research

Copley Fund Research provide research and data on asset allocation among Global and Emerging Market equity funds.  The analysis details absolute and relative positioning across countries, sectors and industries together with highly granular data on single stock and single fund allocations.  The data is updated monthly with time series going back to January 2011.

Global Research - Analysis of 165 prominent Global equity funds, combined AUM $335bn
GEM Research - Analysis of 127 prominent global EM equity funds, combined AUM $250bn

Asset Allocation - Global and GEM Equity

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>India Real Estate, South Korea Financials and Turkey Financials see big increases in ownership in 2024.</li>
<li>South Korea Materials, China Technology and China Health Care saw investment levels decline.</li>
<li>Sk Hynix saw the largest increase in fund ownership, but which stocks saw large decreases, and which look set for a promising 2025?</li>
</ul>


India Real Estate, South Korea Financials and Turkey Financials see big increases in ownership in 2024.
South Korea Materials, China Technology and China Health Care saw investment levels decline.
Sk Hynix saw the largest increase in fund ownership, but which stocks saw large decreases, and which look set for a promising 2025?


GEM Fund Positioning: The Big Rotations in 2024.

South Korea

SK Square Co., Ltd. operates as an investment company. The Company invests in semiconductors, information and communications technologies, and other industries. SK Square conducts businesses in South Korea.

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SK Square (402340 KS)

Upgrading Korea to Overweight; MSCI ACWI and Emerging Market Breakouts

MSCI $ACWI and Emerging Market $EEM Breakouts; Upgrading Korea $EWY to Overweight; Downgrading Broad Europe, but staying Overweight Germany,...

Vermilion Research

Trading Setup from Samsung and Hynix Timing Buyback Completion Around Litigation Key Dates

Sep 22’s MTD opposition deadline should be a key catalyst for Hynix and Samsung. The HBM transition narrative sets this case apart from prior...

Sanghyun Park

KRX Foreign Holding Weekly (Sep 18th): SK Hynix, Samsung Electronics, Samsung Elec (PREF), DOOSAN

We analyzed KRX foreign holding data for the past week and highlighted foreign holding changes in SK Hynix, Samsung Electronics, Samsung Elec...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Setup Pointing to Hynix (And Samsung) Slowing Their Dollar Selling Pretty Soon

This post takes a closer look at the emerging setup suggesting Hynix and Samsung could start slowing their dollar selling meaningfully pretty soon,...

Sanghyun Park

GEM Fund Positioning: The Big Rotations in 2024.

India Real Estate, South Korea and Turkey Financials were the winners in 2024, but which sectors led the declines, and which stocks saw the...

Steven Holden

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Upgrading Korea to Overweight; MSCI ACWI and Emerging Market Breakouts

MSCI $ACWI and Emerging Market $EEM Breakouts; Upgrading Korea $EWY to Overweight; Downgrading Broad Europe, but staying Overweight Germany,...

Vermilion Research

Trading Setup from Samsung and Hynix Timing Buyback Completion Around Litigation Key Dates

Sep 22’s MTD opposition deadline should be a key catalyst for Hynix and Samsung. The HBM transition narrative sets this case apart from prior...

Sanghyun Park

KRX Foreign Holding Weekly (Sep 18th): SK Hynix, Samsung Electronics, Samsung Elec (PREF), DOOSAN

We analyzed KRX foreign holding data for the past week and highlighted foreign holding changes in SK Hynix, Samsung Electronics, Samsung Elec...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Setup Pointing to Hynix (And Samsung) Slowing Their Dollar Selling Pretty Soon

This post takes a closer look at the emerging setup suggesting Hynix and Samsung could start slowing their dollar selling meaningfully pretty soon,...

Sanghyun Park

GEM Fund Positioning: The Big Rotations in 2024.

​India Real Estate, South Korea and Turkey Financials were the winners in 2024, but which sectors led the declines, and which stocks saw the...

Steven Holden

India Real Estate, South Korea and Turkey Financials were the winners in 2024, but which sectors led the declines, and which stocks saw the...