Equity Analyst, LightStream Research

Oshadhi Kumarasiri

Equity Analyst

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>If <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/skylark-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:474:1" rel="noopener">Skylark Co Ltd (3197 JP)</a>'s pricing and footfall growth trend persists, it's likely the company and consensus will revise annual revenue targets upward.</li>
<li>The OP is also expected to exceed Q3 estimates with an OP of ¥7.9bn, prompting a necessary upgrade of annual guidance by ¥5.0-6.0bn.</li>
<li>Yet, we'll approach Skylark's earnings trade cautiously, considering its current valuation.</li>
</ul>


If Skylark Co Ltd (3197 JP)'s pricing and footfall growth trend persists, it's likely the company and consensus will revise annual revenue targets upward.
The OP is also expected to exceed Q3 estimates with an OP of ¥7.9bn, prompting a necessary upgrade of annual guidance by ¥5.0-6.0bn.
Yet, we'll approach Skylark's earnings trade cautiously, considering its current valuation.


Skylark Holdings: Anticipating Another Significant Guidance Upgrade

<p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/skylark-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:474:1" rel="noopener">Skylark Co Ltd (3197 JP)</a> is one of the largest restaurant operators in Japan with over 3,100 restaurants serving Western, Chinese, Japanese, conveyer belt Sushi and Italian cuisines under several restaurant banners such as Gusto, Bamiyan, Syabu-Yo, Jonathan’s, Yumean, and Steak Gusto. The company’s restaurant operations are predominantly based in Japan with just 66 overseas restaurants in Taiwan (63), Malaysia (2) and the US (1) respectively.</p>

Skylark Co Ltd (3197 JP) is one of the largest restaurant operators in Japan with over 3,100 restaurants serving Western, Chinese, Japanese, conveyer belt Sushi and Italian cuisines under several restaurant banners such as Gusto, Bamiyan, Syabu-Yo, Jonathan’s, Yumean, and Steak Gusto. The company’s restaurant operations are predominantly based in Japan with just 66 overseas restaurants in Taiwan (63), Malaysia (2) and the US (1) respectively.

Skylark Holdings: Japan Reopening Story Is Starting to Take Shape

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>The Nikkei reports that Carlyle is in the final stages of buying <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mitsubishi-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20668:1" rel="noopener">Mitsubishi Corp (8058 JP)</a>’s 35% stake in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kfc-holdings-japan-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12358:1" rel="noopener">Kfc Holdings Japan (9873 JP)</a>, which will result in a tender offer. </li>
<li>The structure will likely be similar to the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kddi-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:639:1" rel="noopener">KDDI Corp (9433 JP)</a>/ <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/lawson-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1040:1" rel="noopener">Lawson Inc (2651 JP)</a> tender, where MitCorp provides an irrevocable NOT to accept but vote for share consolidation.</li>
<li>The shares have been up 33.6% since Nikkei flagged the sale on 28 February. KFC Japan will trade in line with peers’ multiples at a JPY5,700 offer.  </li>
</ul>


The Nikkei reports that Carlyle is in the final stages of buying Mitsubishi Corp (8058 JP)’s 35% stake in Kfc Holdings Japan (9873 JP), which will result in a tender offer. 
The structure will likely be similar to the KDDI Corp (9433 JP)/ Lawson Inc (2651 JP) tender, where MitCorp provides an irrevocable NOT to accept but vote for share consolidation.
The shares have been up 33.6% since Nikkei flagged the sale on 28 February. KFC Japan will trade in line with peers’ multiples at a JPY5,700 offer.  


KFC Holdings Japan (9873 JP): Carlyle Edging Towards a Tender Offer

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

TSE Tokyo Price Index TOPIX / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>The MSCI ACWI index ACWI-US briefly fell below major support at $90.50-$91.50, though we do not consider it a "decisive" breakdown and we now see a false breakdown (bullish).</li>
<li>On MSCI ACWI (local currency), a false breakdown appears to already be in place, which is bullish as long as the index does not break to a new low.</li>
<li>MSCI EM (EEM-US) continues to hold above $36.50-$37 support, while MSCI ACWI ex-US (ACWX-US) and EAFE (EFA-US) remain above supports at $45 and $65-$66, respectively. Pullback is likely over.</li>
</ul>


The MSCI ACWI index ACWI-US briefly fell below major support at $90.50-$91.50, though we do not consider it a "decisive" breakdown and we now see a false breakdown (bullish).
On MSCI ACWI (local currency), a false breakdown appears to already be in place, which is bullish as long as the index does not break to a new low.
MSCI EM (EEM-US) continues to hold above $36.50-$37 support, while MSCI ACWI ex-US (ACWX-US) and EAFE (EFA-US) remain above supports at $45 and $65-$66, respectively. Pullback is likely over.


Japan Bullishly Inflecting; Constructive Outlook Intact; Global Pullback Likely Over

<ul>
<li>The removal of COVID-19 testing requirements for Chinese tourists is expected to increase tourist arrivals from the Greater China region.</li>
<li>In addition, consensus estimates for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/skylark-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:474:1" rel="noopener">Skylark Co Ltd (3197 JP)</a> are increasing due to the company's faster-than-expected same-store sales recovery.</li>
<li>Skylark's annual operating profit could reach ¥20bn if revenues return to pre-COVID levels, which is significantly higher than consensus of ¥5.2bn and guidance of ¥6.0bn.</li>
</ul>


The removal of COVID-19 testing requirements for Chinese tourists is expected to increase tourist arrivals from the Greater China region.
In addition, consensus estimates for Skylark Co Ltd (3197 JP) are increasing due to the company's faster-than-expected same-store sales recovery.
Skylark's annual operating profit could reach ¥20bn if revenues return to pre-COVID levels, which is significantly higher than consensus of ¥5.2bn and guidance of ¥6.0bn.


Skylark Holdings: A Big Upgrade to Guidance Could Be on The Horizon

Japan

Skylark Co. Ltd. mainly operates a family restaurant chain across Japan.  The Company offers Japanese-style, Western-style, and Asia-style foods for a wide variety of targeted customer segments.  Skylark also sells food and provides delivery servies.

Skylark Co Ltd (3197 JP)

Skylark Holdings: Anticipating Another Significant Guidance Upgrade

Skylark's strong performance may lead to increased revenue and OP guidance, but caution is advised due to its current valuation.

Oshadhi Kumarasiri

Skylark Holdings: Japan Reopening Story Is Starting to Take Shape

The pent-up demand for leisure in Japan is even higher than it was in the US during March-July 2021. With foot traffic returning, we think Skylark...

Oshadhi Kumarasiri

KFC Holdings Japan (9873 JP): Carlyle Edging Towards a Tender Offer

The shares have increased 33.6% since Nikkei flagged the sale on 28 February. KFC Japan will trade in line with peers’ multiples at a JPY5,700 offer.

Arun George

Japan Bullishly Inflecting; Constructive Outlook Intact; Global Pullback Likely Over

The MSCI $ACWI briefly fell below our $90.50 support but quickly reclaimed, suggesting a false breakdown and the likely end to this pullback in...

Vermilion Research

Skylark Holdings: A Big Upgrade to Guidance Could Be on The Horizon

Skylark's annual operating profit could reach ¥20bn if revenues return to pre-COVID levels, which is significantly higher than consensus of ¥5.2bn...

Oshadhi Kumarasiri

Skylark Holdings: Anticipating Another Significant Guidance Upgrade

​Skylark's strong performance may lead to increased revenue and OP guidance, but caution is advised due to its current valuation.

Oshadhi Kumarasiri

Skylark Holdings: Japan Reopening Story Is Starting to Take Shape

The pent-up demand for leisure in Japan is even higher than it was in the US during March-July 2021. With foot traffic returning, we think Skylark...

Oshadhi Kumarasiri

KFC Holdings Japan (9873 JP): Carlyle Edging Towards a Tender Offer

The shares have increased 33.6% since Nikkei flagged the sale on 28 February. KFC Japan will trade in line with peers’ multiples at a JPY5,700 offer.

Arun George

Japan Bullishly Inflecting; Constructive Outlook Intact; Global Pullback Likely Over

​The MSCI $ACWI briefly fell below our $90.50 support but quickly reclaimed, suggesting a false breakdown and the likely end to this pullback in...

Vermilion Research

Skylark Holdings: A Big Upgrade to Guidance Could Be on The Horizon

Skylark's annual operating profit could reach ¥20bn if revenues return to pre-COVID levels, which is significantly higher than consensus of ¥5.2bn...

Oshadhi Kumarasiri

Skylark's strong performance may lead to increased revenue and OP guidance, but caution is advised due to its current valuation.

The MSCI $ACWI briefly fell below our $90.50 support but quickly reclaimed, suggesting a false breakdown and the likely end to this pullback in...