Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal, Shenton Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China Biotech

DZT Research

DZT Research is an independent Asia Pacific equity specialist. Our quantitative research covers index rebalancing flows, alongside exchange data analytics accross Asia Pacific. On the equity capital markets side, we focus on Asia Pacific ECM, especially biotech and TMT. Our lead analyst is frequently cited by international media.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyzed the changes in margin trading positions of JPX stocks as of May 30th. The aggregated net margin trading position is USD17,220m.</li>
<li>We tabulate league tables for top/bottom net long/short of margin trading by value, net margin buy as multiple of ADT.</li>
<li>We highlight net margin buy/sell changes in Kawasaki Heavy Industries, Mitsubishi Ufj Financial, Disco, Hitachi, Toyota Industries, Skylark, Toyota Motor, Sanrio, Ihi, Create Sd.</li>
</ul>


We analyzed the changes in margin trading positions of JPX stocks as of May 30th. The aggregated net margin trading position is USD17,220m.
We tabulate league tables for top/bottom net long/short of margin trading by value, net margin buy as multiple of ADT.
We highlight net margin buy/sell changes in Kawasaki Heavy Industries, Mitsubishi Ufj Financial, Disco, Hitachi, Toyota Industries, Skylark, Toyota Motor, Sanrio, Ihi, Create Sd.


JPX Margin Trading Weekly (May 30th): Kawasaki Heavy Industries, Mitsubishi Ufj Financial, Disco

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/colowide-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13967:1" rel="noopener">Colowide Co Ltd (7616 JP)</a> aims to raise around US$230m in order to fund its prospective M&amp;A transactions over the next few years</li>
<li>While the company has undertaken a number of M&amp;A transactions in the past, it hasn’t clearly stated its intended targets for this round.</li>
<li>In this note, we will talk about the deal dynamics and run the deal through our ECM framework.</li>
</ul>



Colowide Co Ltd (7616 JP) aims to raise around US$230m in order to fund its prospective M&amp;A transactions over the next few years
While the company has undertaken a number of M&amp;A transactions in the past, it hasn’t clearly stated its intended targets for this round.
In this note, we will talk about the deal dynamics and run the deal through our ECM framework.


Colowide Placement - Needs a Very Large Correction

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kfc-holdings-japan-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12358:1" rel="noopener">Kfc Holdings Japan (9873 JP)</a> has recommended a tender offer from <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/carlyle-group-inc-the" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:33402:1" rel="noopener">Carlyle Group / (CG US)</a> at JPY6,500 per share, a 20.4% premium to the last close. </li>
<li>The transaction is a two-step acquisition through a cash tender offer and subsequent squeeze-out. The lower limit of the tender offer is set at a 31.54% ownership ratio.</li>
<li>Due to the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mitsubishi-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20668:1" rel="noopener">Mitsubishi Corp (8058 JP)</a> irrevocable, the minimum acceptance condition requires a 48.6% minority acceptance rate. The acceptance condition is achievable as the offer is a knockout bid. </li>
</ul>



Kfc Holdings Japan (9873 JP) has recommended a tender offer from Carlyle Group / (CG US) at JPY6,500 per share, a 20.4% premium to the last close. 
The transaction is a two-step acquisition through a cash tender offer and subsequent squeeze-out. The lower limit of the tender offer is set at a 31.54% ownership ratio.
Due to the Mitsubishi Corp (8058 JP) irrevocable, the minimum acceptance condition requires a 48.6% minority acceptance rate. The acceptance condition is achievable as the offer is a knockout bid. 


KFC Holdings Japan (9873 JP): Carlyle Finger Lickin' Tender Offer at JPY6,500

<ul>
<li>The Nikkei reports that Carlyle is in the final stages of buying <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mitsubishi-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20668:1" rel="noopener">Mitsubishi Corp (8058 JP)</a>’s 35% stake in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kfc-holdings-japan-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12358:1" rel="noopener">Kfc Holdings Japan (9873 JP)</a>, which will result in a tender offer. </li>
<li>The structure will likely be similar to the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kddi-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:639:1" rel="noopener">KDDI Corp (9433 JP)</a>/ <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/lawson-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1040:1" rel="noopener">Lawson Inc (2651 JP)</a> tender, where MitCorp provides an irrevocable NOT to accept but vote for share consolidation.</li>
<li>The shares have been up 33.6% since Nikkei flagged the sale on 28 February. KFC Japan will trade in line with peers’ multiples at a JPY5,700 offer.  </li>
</ul>


The Nikkei reports that Carlyle is in the final stages of buying Mitsubishi Corp (8058 JP)’s 35% stake in Kfc Holdings Japan (9873 JP), which will result in a tender offer. 
The structure will likely be similar to the KDDI Corp (9433 JP)/ Lawson Inc (2651 JP) tender, where MitCorp provides an irrevocable NOT to accept but vote for share consolidation.
The shares have been up 33.6% since Nikkei flagged the sale on 28 February. KFC Japan will trade in line with peers’ multiples at a JPY5,700 offer.  


KFC Holdings Japan (9873 JP): Carlyle Edging Towards a Tender Offer

Equity Analyst, LightStream Research

Oshadhi Kumarasiri

Equity Analyst

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>The removal of COVID-19 testing requirements for Chinese tourists is expected to increase tourist arrivals from the Greater China region.</li>
<li>In addition, consensus estimates for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/skylark-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:474:1" rel="noopener">Skylark Co Ltd (3197 JP)</a> are increasing due to the company's faster-than-expected same-store sales recovery.</li>
<li>Skylark's annual operating profit could reach ¥20bn if revenues return to pre-COVID levels, which is significantly higher than consensus of ¥5.2bn and guidance of ¥6.0bn.</li>
</ul>


The removal of COVID-19 testing requirements for Chinese tourists is expected to increase tourist arrivals from the Greater China region.
In addition, consensus estimates for Skylark Co Ltd (3197 JP) are increasing due to the company's faster-than-expected same-store sales recovery.
Skylark's annual operating profit could reach ¥20bn if revenues return to pre-COVID levels, which is significantly higher than consensus of ¥5.2bn and guidance of ¥6.0bn.


Skylark Holdings: A Big Upgrade to Guidance Could Be on The Horizon

Japan

Skylark Co. Ltd. mainly operates a family restaurant chain across Japan.  The Company offers Japanese-style, Western-style, and Asia-style foods for a wide variety of targeted customer segments.  Skylark also sells food and provides delivery servies.

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Skylark Co Ltd (3197 JP)

JPX Margin Trading Weekly (May 30th): Kawasaki Heavy Industries, Mitsubishi Ufj Financial, Disco

We analyzed JPX margin trading positions report for the past week and highlighted Kawasaki Heavy Industries (7012 JP), Mitsubishi Ufj Financial...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Colowide Placement - Needs a Very Large Correction

Colowide Co Ltd (7616 JP) aims to raise around US$230m in order to fund its prospective M&A transactions over the next few years

Sumeet Singh

KFC Holdings Japan (9873 JP): Carlyle Finger Lickin' Tender Offer at JPY6,500

Due to the MitCorp irrevocable, the minimum acceptance condition requires a 48.6% minority acceptance rate. The acceptance condition is achievable...

Arun George

KFC Holdings Japan (9873 JP): Carlyle Edging Towards a Tender Offer

The shares have increased 33.6% since Nikkei flagged the sale on 28 February. KFC Japan will trade in line with peers’ multiples at a JPY5,700 offer.

Arun George

Skylark Holdings: A Big Upgrade to Guidance Could Be on The Horizon

Skylark's annual operating profit could reach ¥20bn if revenues return to pre-COVID levels, which is significantly higher than consensus of ¥5.2bn...

Oshadhi Kumarasiri

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