Japan Specialist

Mark Chadwick

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Snap election called as PM Takaichi seeks mandate for consumption tax suspension and ¥21tn stimulus, boosting approval but reviving concerns over fiscal expansion and rising debt.</li>
<li>BOJ held rates at 0.75%, upgraded growth forecasts on stimulus effects, watched yen weakness and inflation, while bond yields wobbled on election-driven fiscal worries. </li>
<li>Corporate Japan accelerates structural reform: divesting low-return assets, deepening US strategic ties, and facing stronger shareholder activism enforcing market discipline over renewed stimulus reliance.</li>
</ul>


Snap election called as PM Takaichi seeks mandate for consumption tax suspension and ¥21tn stimulus, boosting approval but reviving concerns over fiscal expansion and rising debt.
BOJ held rates at 0.75%, upgraded growth forecasts on stimulus effects, watched yen weakness and inflation, while bond yields wobbled on election-driven fiscal worries. 
Corporate Japan accelerates structural reform: divesting low-return assets, deepening US strategic ties, and facing stronger shareholder activism enforcing market discipline over renewed stimulus reliance.


Japan Strategy | Snap Elections and the Rise of Corporate Discipline

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>On 13 May, Bain/<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ly-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:19603:1" rel="noopener">LY (4689 JP)</a> sent <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kakaku-com-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7408:1" rel="noopener">Kakaku.com Inc (2371 JP)</a> a revised non-binding offer at JPY3,232, a 7.7% premium to EQT’s JPY3,000 offer but 4.9% below the last close.</li>
<li>While remaining non-binding, the Board will be forced to engage under its fiduciary-out clause and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/digital-garage-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13747:1" rel="noopener">Digital Garage (4819 JP)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kddi-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:639:1" rel="noopener">KDDI Corp (9433 JP)</a>’s competing-offer clauses.</li>
<li>Bain/LY’s second offer, belatedly and publicly, sets in motion an auction process. My analysis suggests that a competing bidding war could result in an offer of at least JPY3,500.</li>
</ul>


On 13 May, Bain/LY (4689 JP) sent Kakaku.com Inc (2371 JP) a revised non-binding offer at JPY3,232, a 7.7% premium to EQT’s JPY3,000 offer but 4.9% below the last close.
While remaining non-binding, the Board will be forced to engage under its fiduciary-out clause and Digital Garage (4819 JP) and KDDI Corp (9433 JP)’s competing-offer clauses.
Bain/LY’s second offer, belatedly and publicly, sets in motion an auction process. My analysis suggests that a competing bidding war could result in an offer of at least JPY3,500.


Kakaku.com (2371 JP): How High Can It Go as Bain/LY Ups the Ante?

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kakaku-com-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7408:1" rel="noopener">Kakaku.com Inc (2371 JP)</a> has recommended a tender offer from <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/eqt-ab" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28922:1" rel="noopener">EQT (EQT SS)</a> at JPY3,000, a 2.6% premium to the last close and a 41.4% premium to the undisturbed price of JPY2,121. </li>
<li>At first glance, the offer is attractive compared to historical trading ranges and IFA peer multiples, and it is above the midpoint of the IFA DCF valuation range.</li>
<li>The conspicuous lack of Oasis’s support, the absence of an auction despite a Bain/LY bid, reliance on passives' vote and irrevocables with competing offer clauses suggest a bump is probable.  </li>
</ul>



Kakaku.com Inc (2371 JP) has recommended a tender offer from EQT (EQT SS) at JPY3,000, a 2.6% premium to the last close and a 41.4% premium to the undisturbed price of JPY2,121. 
At first glance, the offer is attractive compared to historical trading ranges and IFA peer multiples, and it is above the midpoint of the IFA DCF valuation range.
The conspicuous lack of Oasis’s support, the absence of an auction despite a Bain/LY bid, reliance on passives' vote and irrevocables with competing offer clauses suggest a bump is probable.  


Kakaku.com (2371 JP): Pass the Popcorn as EQT Launches a Tender Offer

<ul>
<li>Japanese equities experienced a mixed but ultimately positive week, with the Nikkei 225 advancing 0.4% and the Topix up 1%</li>
<li>The BOJ kept its target rate at 0.25% but signalled a hawkish stance, with Governor Ueda not ruling out a rate hike in December should inflation pressures persist</li>
<li>Outlook for the coming week: Japan politics, Japanese corporate earnings, and US presidential election.</li>
</ul>


Japanese equities experienced a mixed but ultimately positive week, with the Nikkei 225 advancing 0.4% and the Topix up 1%
The BOJ kept its target rate at 0.25% but signalled a hawkish stance, with Governor Ueda not ruling out a rate hike in December should inflation pressures persist
Outlook for the coming week: Japan politics, Japanese corporate earnings, and US presidential election.


Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

Taiwan Stock Exchange Weighted Index / Technical Analysis

Taiwan Stock Exchange Weighted Index (TWSE INDEX)

<ul>
<li>The bear market rally that we have discussed since our Sept. 29 Int'l Compass has managed to surpass our price targets, which were YTD downtrends on the ACWX-US and EFA-US.</li>
<li>As a result of these bullish reversals and breakdowns on the US dollar (DXY) and 10-year Treasury yield, we are upgrading our outlook to neutral.</li>
<li>Buy ideas on a pullback in: Consumer Discretionary, Energy, and Technology/Tech Services</li>
</ul>


The bear market rally that we have discussed since our Sept. 29 Int'l Compass has managed to surpass our price targets, which were YTD downtrends on the ACWX-US and EFA-US.
As a result of these bullish reversals and breakdowns on the US dollar (DXY) and 10-year Treasury yield, we are upgrading our outlook to neutral.
Buy ideas on a pullback in: Consumer Discretionary, Energy, and Technology/Tech Services


Bullish Reversals Continue: TAIEX, KOSPI, AEX, Hang Seng, CSI 300. Buy Cyclicals/Growth on Pullbacks

Japan

SMS CO.,LTD. is a website operator regarding elderly care.  On its websites, the company provides a variety of information contents related to employment placements for senior care assistants and doctors, as well as medical and nursing qualifications.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

Sms Co Ltd (2175 JP)

Japan Strategy | Snap Elections and the Rise of Corporate Discipline

PM Takaichi calls snap election raising concerns over fiscal expansion and rising debt. BOJ holds rates, upgrades growth forecasts, as bond yields...

Mark Chadwick

Kakaku.com (2371 JP): How High Can It Go as Bain/LY Ups the Ante?

Bain/LY’s second offer, belatedly and publicly, sets in motion an auction process. My analysis suggests that a competing bidding war could result...

Arun George

Kakaku.com (2371 JP): Pass the Popcorn as EQT Launches a Tender Offer

The conspicuous lack of Oasis’s support, the absence of an auction despite a Bain/LY bid, reliance on passives' vote and irrevocables with...

Arun George

Japan Weekly | A Pivotal Week Ahead

Japanese equities saw a modest gain, BOJ hints at possible rate hike, upcoming week to focus on Japan politics, corporate earnings, and US election.

Mark Chadwick

Bullish Reversals Continue: TAIEX, KOSPI, AEX, Hang Seng, CSI 300. Buy Cyclicals/Growth on Pullbacks

Bullish reversals: Taiwan $TAIEX, Korea $KOSPI, Netherlands' $AEX reversing YTD downtrends, while Hang Seng $HSI and China's CSI 300 are reversing...

Vermilion Research

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Japan Strategy | Snap Elections and the Rise of Corporate Discipline

​PM Takaichi calls snap election raising concerns over fiscal expansion and rising debt. BOJ holds rates, upgrades growth forecasts, as bond yields...

Mark Chadwick

Kakaku.com (2371 JP): How High Can It Go as Bain/LY Ups the Ante?

Bain/LY’s second offer, belatedly and publicly, sets in motion an auction process. My analysis suggests that a competing bidding war could result...

Arun George

Kakaku.com (2371 JP): Pass the Popcorn as EQT Launches a Tender Offer

The conspicuous lack of Oasis’s support, the absence of an auction despite a Bain/LY bid, reliance on passives' vote and irrevocables with...

Arun George

Japan Weekly | A Pivotal Week Ahead

​Japanese equities saw a modest gain, BOJ hints at possible rate hike, upcoming week to focus on Japan politics, corporate earnings, and US election.

Mark Chadwick

Bullish Reversals Continue: TAIEX, KOSPI, AEX, Hang Seng, CSI 300. Buy Cyclicals/Growth on Pullbacks

Bullish reversals: Taiwan $TAIEX, Korea $KOSPI, Netherlands' $AEX reversing YTD downtrends, while Hang Seng $HSI and China's CSI 300 are reversing...

Vermilion Research

PM Takaichi calls snap election raising concerns over fiscal expansion and rising debt. BOJ holds rates, upgrades growth forecasts, as bond yields...

Japanese equities saw a modest gain, BOJ hints at possible rate hike, upcoming week to focus on Japan politics, corporate earnings, and US election.