TMT & Consumer Independent Equity Research Analyst, Obex Capital Research

Aaron Gabin

TMT & Consumer Independent Equity Research Analyst

TMT & Consumer Independent Equity Research

Obex Capital Research

“Obex” is Latin for Barriers to Entry. Obex Capital Management’s investment philosophy is driven by an intense focus on which business model’s Barriers to Entry are able to withstand the ever increasing competitive disruption in the TMT and Consumer Sectors.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Snowflake dropped another monster quarterly result, with product revenues growing 102%, with rising margins and FCF generation.</li>
<li>The 30% after hours drop was insane due to a misunderstanding of revenue guidance.</li>
<li>An incredible entry point for those who wanted to buy Snowflake but were waiting for it to return to the low $200s</li>
</ul>


Snowflake dropped another monster quarterly result, with product revenues growing 102%, with rising margins and FCF generation.
The 30% after hours drop was insane due to a misunderstanding of revenue guidance.
An incredible entry point for those who wanted to buy Snowflake but were waiting for it to return to the low $200s


Snowflake 4Q22 Earnings: What a Buying Opportunity

Palantir Technologies  / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Palantir's ongoing SPAC investment strategy is driving an increasing bifurcation between reported and underlying results... which continues to be ignored by sell side and retail investors. </li>
<li>Revenue growth missed ex-SPAC, while Billings Growth collapsed 31% YoY ex-SPAC investments...unheard of for a software company.</li>
<li>Margin guidance for 1Q22 well below consensus as sales headcount continues to ramp. Stay short.</li>
</ul>


Palantir's ongoing SPAC investment strategy is driving an increasing bifurcation between reported and underlying results... which continues to be ignored by sell side and retail investors. 
Revenue growth missed ex-SPAC, while Billings Growth collapsed 31% YoY ex-SPAC investments...unheard of for a software company.
Margin guidance for 1Q22 well below consensus as sales headcount continues to ramp. Stay short.


Palantir 4Q21 Earnings: Declining Bookings, Shrinking Margins, Eccentric CEO

<ul>
<li>With half of Nasdaq stocks down 50% from the top, is further meltdown ahead?  Valuation compression is already larger than recent big growth selloffs.  </li>
<li>We like a balance of highest quality high growth (CRWD, SNOW, RBLX) and attractive relative valuations (PANW, NOW, BABA)</li>
<li>Amazon is poised for a big 2022 as 1 day Prime shipping reaccelerates growth, and price increases hike profits.</li>
</ul>


With half of Nasdaq stocks down 50% from the top, is further meltdown ahead?  Valuation compression is already larger than recent big growth selloffs.  
We like a balance of highest quality high growth (CRWD, SNOW, RBLX) and attractive relative valuations (PANW, NOW, BABA)
Amazon is poised for a big 2022 as 1 day Prime shipping reaccelerates growth, and price increases hike profits.


<ul>
<li>Snowflake's largest customers consumption generated a massive beat on revenues and net revenue retention.</li>
<li>First quarter of positive EBIT and FCF shows operating leverage of this scaled business is starting to kick in.</li>
<li>Network effects look likely to start to juice growth as Snowflake rolls out new industry clouds.</li>
</ul>


Snowflake's largest customers consumption generated a massive beat on revenues and net revenue retention.
First quarter of positive EBIT and FCF shows operating leverage of this scaled business is starting to kick in.
Network effects look likely to start to juice growth as Snowflake rolls out new industry clouds.


Snowflake 3Q22 Earnings: The Abominable Snowman

<p>We continue to be baffled by Palantir. Rampant obfuscation in conference call answers, investor presentations, and the 10Q. The company is targeting $400MM in "adjusted free cash flow this year"...we have it about $530MM lower.</p><p>We remain short.</p><div class="content-highlight"><p>Obex’s fundamental research process is focused on secular change in the TMT and Consumer sectors. We seek to differentiate between fundamental business analysis and security analysis. Before deciding if a security’s pricing and positioning merit a long or short position, we analyze the four pillars of business fundamentals (Secular Factors, TAM, Competitive Advantage, Business Model) in order to determine if this is a “good” or “not so good” opportunity.</p></div>

We continue to be baffled by Palantir. Rampant obfuscation in conference call answers, investor presentations, and the 10Q. The company is targeting $400MM in "adjusted free cash flow this year"...we have it about $530MM lower.We remain short.Obex’s fundamental research process is focused on secular change in the TMT and Consumer sectors. We seek to differentiate between fundamental business analysis and security analysis. Before deciding if a security’s pricing and positioning merit a long or short position, we analyze the four pillars of business fundamentals (Secular Factors, TAM, Competitive Advantage, Business Model) in order to determine if this is a “good” or “not so good” opportunity.

United States

Snowflake Inc. provides software solutions. The Company develops database architecture, data warehouses, query optimization, and parallelization solutions. Snowflake serves customers worldwide.

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Snowflake (SNOW US)

Snowflake 4Q22 Earnings: What a Buying Opportunity

Snowflake dropped another monster quarterly result, with product revenues growing 102% but was cut afterhours by 30% over revenue guidance....

Aaron Gabin

Palantir 4Q21 Earnings: Declining Bookings, Shrinking Margins, Eccentric CEO

Palantir remains one of our top short ideas. SPAC investments continue to account for any upside vs. consensus expectations, while billings growth...

Aaron Gabin

1H22 Obex Research Long Portfolio

With the big rate driven selloff in growth stocks, we highlight our top long ideas including ON Semi, Palo Alto Networks, Alibaba, Amazon, and...

Aaron Gabin

Snowflake 3Q22 Earnings: The Abominable Snowman

Snowflake's strongest quarter since it went public, with rising net retention and outsized growth from its largest customers driving the...

Aaron Gabin

Palantir 3Q21 Earnings: We Buy Growth

We continue to be baffled by Palantir. The company is targeting $400MM in "adjusted free cash flow this year"...we have it about $530MM lower. We...

Aaron Gabin

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