Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sodick-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3814:1" rel="noopener">Sodick Co Ltd (6143 JP)</a> announced a secondary equity offering yesterday. The stock is down 6% today because of that but that barely covers the dilution. </li>
<li>Yes, it is secondary, but nearly 40% of the offering is from secondary shares created from warrant conversion. AP bought dirt cheap warrants and a dirt cheap CB last year.</li>
<li>The Company benefits from AI Data Centre buildout, and isn't expensive. There's a buyback to mitigate supply, but that goes to show the AP deal was structurally a bad idea.</li>
</ul>



Sodick Co Ltd (6143 JP) announced a secondary equity offering yesterday. The stock is down 6% today because of that but that barely covers the dilution. 
Yes, it is secondary, but nearly 40% of the offering is from secondary shares created from warrant conversion. AP bought dirt cheap warrants and a dirt cheap CB last year.
The Company benefits from AI Data Centre buildout, and isn't expensive. There's a buyback to mitigate supply, but that goes to show the AP deal was structurally a bad idea.


[Japan Offering] Sodick (6143 JP) Offering by Crossholders and AP (Ouch); Cheap But A Mgmt Red Flag

Director, Head of Research, Smartkarma

Pranav Rao

Director, Head of Research

Smartkarma

Smartkarma unites the fragmented investment industry, connecting institutional investors, independent research providers, and corporates within a single network.

Research Reinvented

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>Welcome to Curator’s Cut - a fortnightly roundup of standout themes from the 1,200+ insights shared on Smartkarma.</li>
<li>In this cut, we look at who pays as yields climb, follow the squeeze in refined products, and track the unwinding of strategic stakes from Tokyo to Seoul and Singapore.</li>
<li>Want to dig deeper? Comment or message with the themes you’d like to see highlighted next.</li>
</ul>


Welcome to Curator’s Cut - a fortnightly roundup of standout themes from the 1,200+ insights shared on Smartkarma.
In this cut, we look at who pays as yields climb, follow the squeeze in refined products, and track the unwinding of strategic stakes from Tokyo to Seoul and Singapore.
Want to dig deeper? Comment or message with the themes you’d like to see highlighted next.


Curator’s Cut: Debt Gets Dearer, Diesel Runs Dry & Strategic Stakes Come Undone

Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal, Shenton Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China Biotech

Shenton Research

Shenton Research is an independent Asia Pacific equity specialist. Our quantitative research covers index rebalancing flows, alongside exchange data analytics accross Asia Pacific. On the equity capital markets side, we focus on Asia Pacific ECM, especially biotech and TMT. Our lead analyst is frequently cited by international media.

Shenzhen Transsion Holdings / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>Firmus pulled its USD 5.5bn ASX IPO. AS Watson's USD 30bn dual listing was reportedly delayed to 2027, and Moonshot reportedly eyes an HK IPO of up to USD 5bn.</li>
<li>ESWIN, the week's only HK listing, raised USD 319m and fell 1.0% on day one. Eight listings in the past month have a median return of -2.5% since IPO.</li>
<li>On HKEX, one company filed an AP and three posted PHIPs. Transsion's USD 428m A+H IPO lists on 15 Oct.</li>
</ul>


Firmus pulled its USD 5.5bn ASX IPO. AS Watson's USD 30bn dual listing was reportedly delayed to 2027, and Moonshot reportedly eyes an HK IPO of up to USD 5bn.
ESWIN, the week's only HK listing, raised USD 319m and fell 1.0% on day one. Eight listings in the past month have a median return of -2.5% since IPO.
On HKEX, one company filed an AP and three posted PHIPs. Transsion's USD 428m A+H IPO lists on 15 Oct.


This Week in APAC ECM (Oct 4-10): Firmus Pulls ASX IPO; Moonshot Eyes USD 5bn; Jio Sets Price Band

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/makino-milling-machine-co" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5200:1" rel="noopener">Makino Milling Machine Co (6135 JP)</a> ended its consideration of the NSSK offer due to concerns about whether NSSK could secure FEFTA approval, given its reliance on foreign investors for financing.</li>
<li>This event sets a precedent, as a Japanese PE-led bid is not a credible shield against FEFTA rejection. Japanese regulators are looking through to ultimate ownership/control.</li>
<li>Due to a significant re-rating of peers/index and Makino’s upgraded FY2029 targets since the undisturbed date, the share price fall on a deal break should be around 10%. </li>
</ul>



Makino Milling Machine Co (6135 JP) ended its consideration of the NSSK offer due to concerns about whether NSSK could secure FEFTA approval, given its reliance on foreign investors for financing.
This event sets a precedent, as a Japanese PE-led bid is not a credible shield against FEFTA rejection. Japanese regulators are looking through to ultimate ownership/control.
Due to a significant re-rating of peers/index and Makino’s upgraded FY2029 targets since the undisturbed date, the share price fall on a deal break should be around 10%. 


Makino Milling Machine (6135 JP): FEFTA Approval Rears Its Head Again as NSSK’s Offer Is Declined

<ul>
<li>The <a href="https://www.nikkei.com/article/DGXZQOUC210PD0R20C26A6000000/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Nikkei reported</a> that NSSK has made a revised proposal for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/makino-milling-machine-co" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5200:1" rel="noopener">Makino Milling Machine Co (6135 JP)</a> at around JPY16,000, a 36.2% premium to the failed MBK JPY11,751 offer.</li>
<li>The Nikkei highlights a risk that the NSSK tender offer may be rejected in favour of implementing the updated <a href="https://ir.makino.co.jp/en/news/pdf/2026/20260519.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">corporate enhancement plan</a> (announced on 13 May). </li>
<li>However, the Board is likely to support an NSSK offer of around JPY16,000, as it would represent an all-time high and exceed the peer- and market-adjusted undisturbed price. </li>
</ul>


The Nikkei reported that NSSK has made a revised proposal for Makino Milling Machine Co (6135 JP) at around JPY16,000, a 36.2% premium to the failed MBK JPY11,751 offer.
The Nikkei highlights a risk that the NSSK tender offer may be rejected in favour of implementing the updated corporate enhancement plan (announced on 13 May). 
However, the Board is likely to support an NSSK offer of around JPY16,000, as it would represent an all-time high and exceed the peer- and market-adjusted undisturbed price. 


Makino Milling Machine (6135 JP): NSSK’s Rumoured Revised Offer Around JPY16,000

Japan

Sodick Co., Ltd. develops, manufactures, and sells electric machines and equipment.  The Company's product line includes computerized numerical control electrical discharge machine (EDM), super high precision wire cut EDM, CAD/CAM system for mold design and production, injection molding machine, and high speed manual drilling machine.

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Sodick Co Ltd (6143 JP)

[Japan Offering] Sodick (6143 JP) Offering by Crossholders and AP (Ouch); Cheap But A Mgmt Red Flag

Precision EDM mfr Sodick is doing a 2ndary Offering of which 40% is AP making big bucks on warrants and CB from last year. Earnings can be...

Travis Lundy

Curator’s Cut: Debt Gets Dearer, Diesel Runs Dry & Strategic Stakes Come Undone

We see which Asian sectors might be impacted by rising rates, how refiners are benefitting from wide crack spreads, and how strategic stakes are...

Pranav Rao

This Week in APAC ECM (Oct 4-10): Firmus Pulls ASX IPO; Moonshot Eyes USD 5bn; Jio Sets Price Band

This week in APAC ECM: Firmus pulled its ASX IPO of up to USD 5.5bn, Moonshot reportedly targeted up to USD 5bn in Hong Kong, and Jio reportedly...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Makino Milling Machine (6135 JP): FEFTA Approval Rears Its Head Again as NSSK’s Offer Is Declined

Due to a significant re-rating of peers/index and Makino’s upgraded FY2029 targets since the undisturbed date, the share price fall on a deal break...

Arun George

Makino Milling Machine (6135 JP): NSSK’s Rumoured Revised Offer Around JPY16,000

An NSSK offer around the rumoured JPY16,000 is justifiable. The Board would likely be supportive despite the alternative of implementing its...

Arun George

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