TMT & Consumer Independent Equity Research Analyst, Obex Capital Research

Aaron Gabin

TMT & Consumer Independent Equity Research Analyst

TMT & Consumer Independent Equity Research

Obex Capital Research

“Obex” is Latin for Barriers to Entry. Obex Capital Management’s investment philosophy is driven by an intense focus on which business model’s Barriers to Entry are able to withstand the ever increasing competitive disruption in the TMT and Consumer Sectors.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Impressive Analyst Day Presentation got us bulled up on the potential for Afterpay to juice growth on both Square and the Cash App</li>
<li>Cash App getting a design overhaul to create a super app that spans commerce, investing, payments, personal finance, loans, etc. </li>
<li>Unit economics outlined today lead us to a ~40% potential EBITDA margin in 3-5 years...well higher than is currently considered by consensus today. </li>
</ul>


Impressive Analyst Day Presentation got us bulled up on the potential for Afterpay to juice growth on both Square and the Cash App
Cash App getting a design overhaul to create a super app that spans commerce, investing, payments, personal finance, loans, etc. 
Unit economics outlined today lead us to a ~40% potential EBITDA margin in 3-5 years...well higher than is currently considered by consensus today. 


Covering IPOs, Healthcare and Technology Stocks

Andrei Zakharov

Algosun Global

<ul>
<li>We see limited upside potential for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/upstart-holdings-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29727:1" rel="noopener">Upstart Holdings Inc (UPST US)</a>  shares after reporting a record 200%+ YoY revenue growth rate in CY’21.   </li>
<li>Our calculations suggest insiders sold ~$1.5 billion worth of Upstart shares since August 2020, including Third Point, CEO of Upstart Holdings, and management of the fintech company. </li>
<li>Rising interest rates and tightening of credit markets may negatively impact revenue, keeping in mind that <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/upstart-holdings-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29727:1" rel="noopener">Upstart Holdings Inc (UPST US)</a>  primarily facilitates unsecured personal loans on the platform.</li>
</ul>


We see limited upside potential for Upstart Holdings Inc (UPST US)  shares after reporting a record 200%+ YoY revenue growth rate in CY’21.   
Our calculations suggest insiders sold ~$1.5 billion worth of Upstart shares since August 2020, including Third Point, CEO of Upstart Holdings, and management of the fintech company. 
Rising interest rates and tightening of credit markets may negatively impact revenue, keeping in mind that Upstart Holdings Inc (UPST US)  primarily facilitates unsecured personal loans on the platform.


Upstart Holdings: Slowdown In Revenue Growth And Tightening Of Credit Markets

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/upstart-holdings-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29727:1" rel="noopener">Upstart Holdings Inc (UPST US)</a> is both a consumer Internet brand as well an online loan origination platform. </li>
<li>Upstart is a rare fintech that has established credibility by delivering high growth with profits and cash generation. The healthy 2022 outlook underscores the long-term potential. </li>
<li>While the ongoing market volatility is a near-term risk, the tech sell-off presents an opportunity to gain exposure to a good story at an attractive valuation. </li>
</ul>



Upstart Holdings Inc (UPST US) is both a consumer Internet brand as well an online loan origination platform. 
Upstart is a rare fintech that has established credibility by delivering high growth with profits and cash generation. The healthy 2022 outlook underscores the long-term potential. 
While the ongoing market volatility is a near-term risk, the tech sell-off presents an opportunity to gain exposure to a good story at an attractive valuation. 


Upstart Holdings: Fast-Growing, Profitable, Cash Generative with Share Buybacks

Independent Research, SPACs, SPAC Track

SPAC Track

Independent Research, SPACs

Equity Capital Markets

Delwinds Insurance Acquisition Corp / Equity Capital Markets

<ul><li>Delwinds Insurance Acquisition Corp. (DWIN) &amp; FOXO Technologies (Valuation: $369M EV)</li><li>Brilliant Acquisition Corp (BRLI) &amp; Nukkleus (Valuation: $140M pre-money EV)</li><li>Nasdaq is taking steps to remove SoftBank-backed View (VIEW) from its exchange after the glassmaker failed to meet another deadline to file missing financials</li></ul>

Delwinds Insurance Acquisition Corp. (DWIN) &amp; FOXO Technologies (Valuation: $369M EV)Brilliant Acquisition Corp (BRLI) &amp; Nukkleus (Valuation: $140M pre-money EV)Nasdaq is taking steps to remove SoftBank-backed View (VIEW) from its exchange after the glassmaker failed to meet another deadline to file missing financials

<ul><li>Social Capital Suvretta Holdings Corp. III (DNAC: no warrants, common +0.01%) &amp; ProKidney</li><li>Vishal Garg, founder and CEO of digital mortgage lender Better, [merging with Aurora Acquisition Corp. (AURC)] is staying on as CEO</li><li>Shares of SoFi rallied as more than 16% in after-hours trading on Tuesday following news that the fintech cleared its final regulatory hurdle in becoming a bank.</li></ul>

Social Capital Suvretta Holdings Corp. III (DNAC: no warrants, common +0.01%) &amp; ProKidneyVishal Garg, founder and CEO of digital mortgage lender Better, [merging with Aurora Acquisition Corp. (AURC)] is staying on as CEOShares of SoFi rallied as more than 16% in after-hours trading on Tuesday following news that the fintech cleared its final regulatory hurdle in becoming a bank.

United States

SoFi Technologies, Inc. is an online personal finance company and online bank. The Company provides financial products including student and auto loan refinancing, mortgages, personal loans, credit card, investing, and banking through both mobile app and desktop interfaces. SoFi Technologies serves customers in the United States.

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SoFi Technologies (SOFI US)

Revisiting Long Ideas: Square (Block)

Square had a strong 1Q22 and a bullish analyst day presentation yesterday that reignited our enthusiasm for this ecosystem of ecosystems. Afterpay...

Aaron Gabin

Upstart Holdings: Slowdown In Revenue Growth And Tightening Of Credit Markets

We think investors should be cautious on Upstart shares due to the slowdown in revenue growth rates and the tightening of credit markets

Andrei Zakharov

The SPAC Week in Review

Delwinds Insurance Acquisition Corp. (DWIN) & FOXO Technologies (Valuation: $369M EV). Brilliant Acquisition Corp (BRLI) & Nukkleus (Valuation:...

SPAC Track

The Nightcap from SPAC Track

Social Capital Suvretta Holdings Corp. III (DNAC: no warrants, common +0.01%) & ProKidney. Vishal Garg, founder and CEO of digital mortgage lender...

SPAC Track

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Revisiting Long Ideas: Square (Block)

Square had a strong 1Q22 and a bullish analyst day presentation yesterday that reignited our enthusiasm for this ecosystem of ecosystems. Afterpay...

Aaron Gabin

Upstart Holdings: Slowdown In Revenue Growth And Tightening Of Credit Markets

We think investors should be cautious on Upstart shares due to the slowdown in revenue growth rates and the tightening of credit markets

Andrei Zakharov

Upstart Holdings: Fast-Growing, Profitable, Cash Generative with Share Buybacks

Upstart is a rare fintech that has established credibility by delivering high growth with profits and cash generation. The tech sell-off is an...

Arun George

The SPAC Week in Review

Delwinds Insurance Acquisition Corp. (DWIN) & FOXO Technologies (Valuation: $369M EV). Brilliant Acquisition Corp (BRLI) & Nukkleus (Valuation:...

SPAC Track

The Nightcap from SPAC Track

Social Capital Suvretta Holdings Corp. III (DNAC: no warrants, common +0.01%) & ProKidney. Vishal Garg, founder and CEO of digital mortgage lender...

SPAC Track