IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>CVC has increased its <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mandom-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8353:1" rel="noopener">Mandom Corp (4917 JP)</a> offer by 3.2% to JPY2,600, a 16.1% discount to KKR’s potential JPY3,100 offer and 17.5% discount to the last close.</li>
<li>CVC marginally increased its offer price to extend the offer close from 29 January to 12 February, buying it time to judge if it can counter a potential KKR offer.</li>
<li>Despite the bump, CVC remains unlikely to match KKR’s terms. Today's lowered Mandom full-year guidance will make it incrementally harder for CVC to justify matching KKR’s terms.</li>
</ul>


CVC has increased its Mandom Corp (4917 JP) offer by 3.2% to JPY2,600, a 16.1% discount to KKR’s potential JPY3,100 offer and 17.5% discount to the last close.
CVC marginally increased its offer price to extend the offer close from 29 January to 12 February, buying it time to judge if it can counter a potential KKR offer.
Despite the bump, CVC remains unlikely to match KKR’s terms. Today's lowered Mandom full-year guidance will make it incrementally harder for CVC to justify matching KKR’s terms.


Mandom (4917 JP): CVC’s Minimal Bump to Buy It Time to Figure Out a Strategy to Counter KKR

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mandom-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8353:1" rel="noopener">Mandom Corp (4917 JP)</a> has received a competing non-binding proposal from <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kkr-co-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27333:1" rel="noopener">KKR &amp; Co (KKR US)</a> at JPY3,100, a 23.0% premium to CVC’s JPY2,520 offer.</li>
<li>KKR intends to commence the offer by the end of January and is preconditional on the Board’s recommendation. The Board is evaluating the proposal.</li>
<li>The Board is likely to support the KKR offer as it resulted from their decision to launch countermeasures. CVC is likely to walk rather than engage in a bidding war.</li>
</ul>



Mandom Corp (4917 JP) has received a competing non-binding proposal from KKR &amp; Co (KKR US) at JPY3,100, a 23.0% premium to CVC’s JPY2,520 offer.
KKR intends to commence the offer by the end of January and is preconditional on the Board’s recommendation. The Board is evaluating the proposal.
The Board is likely to support the KKR offer as it resulted from their decision to launch countermeasures. CVC is likely to walk rather than engage in a bidding war.


Mandom (4917 JP): KKR’s JPY3,100 Offer Could Force CVC to Walk

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mandom-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8353:1" rel="noopener">Mandom Corp (4917 JP)</a> has disclosed that it has received a non-binding letter of intent from a third-party candidate, with purchase prices exceeding the CVC JPY2,520 offer.</li>
<li>The <a href="https://www.nikkei.com/article/DGXZQOUB0996J0Z01C25A2000000/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Nikkei</a> identifies the bidder as KKR and states that the offer is over JPY2,800, a 11.1% premium to the CVC offer. KKR want a Board-recommended offer.</li>
<li>CVC has extended the close of its offer to 5 January 2026, but will need to revise terms as its irrevocables (particularly Murakami and Hibiki) can switch to KKR.</li>
</ul>



Mandom Corp (4917 JP) has disclosed that it has received a non-binding letter of intent from a third-party candidate, with purchase prices exceeding the CVC JPY2,520 offer.
The Nikkei identifies the bidder as KKR and states that the offer is over JPY2,800, a 11.1% premium to the CVC offer. KKR want a Board-recommended offer.
CVC has extended the close of its offer to 5 January 2026, but will need to revise terms as its irrevocables (particularly Murakami and Hibiki) can switch to KKR.


Mandom (4917 JP): When You Thought It Was Done, KKR Emerges as a Competing Bidder

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

<ul>
<li>For November 2025, eight new transactions (firm and non-binding) were discussed on Smartkarma (by the Quiddity team) with an overall announced deal size of ~US$10bn.</li>
<li><strong>The average premium for the new transactions announced (or first discussed) in November was ~31%, with a year-to-date average of ~48%.</strong></li>
<li>The average premiums for transactions in 2024 (129 transactions), 2023 (117), 2022 (106), 2021 (165), 2020 (158), and 2019 (145 ) were 43%, 39%, 41%, 33%, 31%, and 31%.</li>
</ul>


For November 2025, eight new transactions (firm and non-binding) were discussed on Smartkarma (by the Quiddity team) with an overall announced deal size of ~US$10bn.
The average premium for the new transactions announced (or first discussed) in November was ~31%, with a year-to-date average of ~48%.
The average premiums for transactions in 2024 (129 transactions), 2023 (117), 2022 (106), 2021 (165), 2020 (158), and 2019 (145 ) were 43%, 39%, 41%, 33%, 31%, and 31%.


(Mostly) Asia M&A, Nov 2025 Wrap: Qube, Forum Engineering, National Storage REIT, Star Micronics

Travis Lundy

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/digital-holdings-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1697:1" rel="noopener">Digital Holdings Inc (2389 JP)</a> jumped today after spending a week or more at levels just above the revised Tender Price of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hakuhodo-dy-holdings-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8736:1" rel="noopener">Hakuhodo Dy Holdings (2433 JP)</a>. </li>
<li>SilverCape had promised to bid ¥2,380 against Hakuhodo's ¥1,970 and the Company responded by threatening a Poison Pill against SilverCape, for relatively spurious reasons (as discussed <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/japan-activism-m-a-hakuhodo-dy-lowers-digital-holdings-2389-jp-tob-threshold-bumps-a-tiny-2-2" target="_blank" rel="noopener">here</a>).</li>
<li>Hakuhodo bid slightly more, and lowered its minimum, thereby <em>nearly</em> ensuring their success. HOWEVER.... SilverCape's CIO interviewed yesterday promised a higher price. The stock popped today. But...</li>
</ul>



Digital Holdings Inc (2389 JP) jumped today after spending a week or more at levels just above the revised Tender Price of Hakuhodo Dy Holdings (2433 JP). 
SilverCape had promised to bid ¥2,380 against Hakuhodo's ¥1,970 and the Company responded by threatening a Poison Pill against SilverCape, for relatively spurious reasons (as discussed here).
Hakuhodo bid slightly more, and lowered its minimum, thereby nearly ensuring their success. HOWEVER.... SilverCape's CIO interviewed yesterday promised a higher price. The stock popped today. But...


[Japan Activism/M&A] SilverCape Renews Its Effort on Digital HD (2389 JP) To Resolve Board Complaint

Japan

SOFT99 Corporation develops, manufactures, and markets automobile care products. The Company's products include car wash and wax products, chemical products for car maintenance and scratch repair, and house care products.

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Soft99 Corp (4464 JP)

Mandom (4917 JP): CVC’s Minimal Bump to Buy It Time to Figure Out a Strategy to Counter KKR

Despite the bump, CVC remains unlikely to match KKR’s terms. Today's lowered Mandom full-year guidance will make it incrementally harder for CVC to...

Arun George

Mandom (4917 JP): KKR’s JPY3,100 Offer Could Force CVC to Walk

The Board is likely to support the KKR offer as it resulted from their decision to launch countermeasures. CVC is likely to walk rather than engage...

Arun George

Mandom (4917 JP): When You Thought It Was Done, KKR Emerges as a Competing Bidder

CVC has extended the close of its offer to 5 January 2026, but will need to revise terms as its irrevocables (particularly Murakami and Hibiki) can...

Arun George

(Mostly) Asia M&A, Nov 2025 Wrap: Qube, Forum Engineering, National Storage REIT, Star Micronics

For the month of November, 8 new deals were discussed on Smartkarma with an overall deal size of ~US$10bn. The average premium for the new deals...

David Blennerhassett

[Japan Activism/M&A] SilverCape Renews Its Effort on Digital HD (2389 JP) To Resolve Board Complaint

It appears SilverCape is going to bid higher AND bid for more stock in an effort to offset the Board's (groundless) complaints about coerciveness....

Travis Lundy

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