Derivatives and Quantitative Strategist

Gaudenz Schneider

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
Context: The Bank of Japan (BoJ) will announce its monetary policy decision on Friday, 19 September 2025. Unlike most central banks, the BoJ announces its decisions flexibly, usually around noon.</li>
<li>
Highlight: Analysis of the past 13 meetings hints at patterns linking longer meetings and delayed announcements with policy changes, including a surprise hike in July 2024.</li>
<li>
Why it Matters: This analysis helps investors interpret timing signals ahead of the 19 September decision, assessing whether delay itself could hint at an outcome shift.</li>
</ul>



Context: The Bank of Japan (BoJ) will announce its monetary policy decision on Friday, 19 September 2025. Unlike most central banks, the BoJ announces its decisions flexibly, usually around noon.

Highlight: Analysis of the past 13 meetings hints at patterns linking longer meetings and delayed announcements with policy changes, including a surprise hike in July 2024.

Why it Matters: This analysis helps investors interpret timing signals ahead of the 19 September decision, assessing whether delay itself could hint at an outcome shift.


Bank of Japan’s Rate Decision on Sept 19: Does Timing Signal the Outcome?

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>Aequitas Research's weekly update on the IPOs, placements, lockup expiry and other ECM linked events that were covered by the team over the past week.</li>
<li>On the IPO front, things are picking up going into the year end, as is usual, with multiple US$1bn+ deals said to go live over the next few weeks.</li>
<li>On the placements front, as well, market remains receptive for both primary and secondary offerings.</li>
</ul>


Aequitas Research's weekly update on the IPOs, placements, lockup expiry and other ECM linked events that were covered by the team over the past week.
On the IPO front, things are picking up going into the year end, as is usual, with multiple US$1bn+ deals said to go live over the next few weeks.
On the placements front, as well, market remains receptive for both primary and secondary offerings.


ECM Weekly (15 September 2025)- Chery, Zijin Gold, Hesai, Orion, Myungin, Urban, Nio, Kotak, Toei

Quantitative Researcher, MRM Research

Nico Rosti

Quantitative Researcher

MRM Research

Quantitative Research

Equity Derivatives

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) / Equity Derivatives

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing)

<ul>
<li>1-Week directional forecast for the Asian indices and stocks we track, based on our proprietary probability model.</li>
<li>OVERBOUGHT:  <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/samsung-electronics-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:191:1" rel="noopener">Samsung Electronics (005930 KS)</a> , <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/taiwan-semiconductor-manufacturing-company" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11230:1" rel="noopener">Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) (2330 TT)</a> , <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/softbank-group-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:315:1" rel="noopener">Softbank Group (9984 JP)</a> , <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hong-kong-hang-seng-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22899:1" rel="noopener">HSI Index</a> , <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/korea-stock-exchange-kospi-200" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26021:1" rel="noopener">KOSPI 200 INDEX</a> , <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nikkei-225" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22909:1" rel="noopener">Nikkei 225</a> .</li>
<li>OVERSOLD: <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/byd-co-ltd-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20962:1" rel="noopener">BYD Company (1211 HK)</a> , <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/s-p-asx-200" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22901:1" rel="noopener">S&amp;P/ASX 200 INDEX</a> .</li>
</ul>


1-Week directional forecast for the Asian indices and stocks we track, based on our proprietary probability model.
OVERBOUGHT:  Samsung Electronics (005930 KS) , Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) (2330 TT) , Softbank Group (9984 JP) , HSI Index , KOSPI 200 INDEX , Nikkei 225 .
OVERSOLD: BYD Company (1211 HK) , S&amp;P/ASX 200 INDEX .


Asia/Pacific Stocks Outlook For the Week Sep 15-19

Japanese Equity Specialist, Ortus Advisors

Andrew Jackson

Japanese Equity Specialist

Ortus Advisors

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Broadcom up another 10% on potential demand for ASIC, expect Socionext to catch a bid after yesterdays pause.</li>
<li>Market turning more sour on Apple's latest offerings pulling suppliers lower.</li>
<li>EDA names are reeling from China export restrictions with Synopsis -36% pulling Cadence lower also.</li>
</ul>


Broadcom up another 10% on potential demand for ASIC, expect Socionext to catch a bid after yesterdays pause.
Market turning more sour on Apple's latest offerings pulling suppliers lower.
EDA names are reeling from China export restrictions with Synopsis -36% pulling Cadence lower also.


Japan Morning Connection: Oracle +36% Pulls Most AI Related Sharply Higher, Expect Softbank Strength

Samsung Electronics Pref Shares / Equity Derivatives

<ul>
<li>A synoptic look at the tactical setups for the indices, stocks, commodities and bonds we cover, week September 1 – September 5. The MODEL's SUPPORT/RESISTANCE data file is attached.</li>
<li>
OVERBOUGHT at the WEEKLY Close: <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/alphabet-inc-cl-c" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11369:1" rel="noopener">Alphabet (GOOG US)</a> , <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/taiwan-semiconductor-manufacturing-company" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11230:1" rel="noopener">Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) (2330 TT)</a> , <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/gold" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22870:1" rel="noopener">Gold (GOLD COMDTY)</a> , 10-Year US Treasuries (ZN Futures)</li>
<li>
OVERSOLD at the WEEKLY Close: <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nvidia-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5891:1" rel="noopener">NVIDIA Corp (NVDA US)</a> , <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/samsung-electronics-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:191:1" rel="noopener">Samsung Electronics (005930 KS)</a> , <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-mobile-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27:1" rel="noopener">China Mobile (941 HK)</a> , <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/softbank-group-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:315:1" rel="noopener">Softbank Group (9984 JP)</a>
</li>
</ul>


A synoptic look at the tactical setups for the indices, stocks, commodities and bonds we cover, week September 1 – September 5. The MODEL's SUPPORT/RESISTANCE data file is attached.

OVERBOUGHT at the WEEKLY Close: Alphabet (GOOG US) , Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) (2330 TT) , Gold (GOLD COMDTY) , 10-Year US Treasuries (ZN Futures)

OVERSOLD at the WEEKLY Close: NVIDIA Corp (NVDA US) , Samsung Electronics (005930 KS) , China Mobile (941 HK) , Softbank Group (9984 JP)



Global Markets Tactical Outlook: WEEKLY Recap (Sep 8 – Sep 12)

Japan

SoftBank Group Corp provides telecommunication services.  The Company also operates ADSL (Asymmetric Digital Subscriber Line) and fiber optic high-speed Internet connection, e-Commerce businesses, and Internet based advertising and auction businesses.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

Softbank Group (ADR) (SFTBY US)

Bank of Japan’s Rate Decision on Sept 19: Does Timing Signal the Outcome?

The Bank of Japan (BoJ) will announce its monetary policy decision on Friday, 19 September 2025. The BoJ announces its decisions flexibly, usually...

Gaudenz Schneider

ECM Weekly (15 September 2025)- Chery, Zijin Gold, Hesai, Orion, Myungin, Urban, Nio, Kotak, Toei

Aequitas Research's weekly update on the IPOs, placements, lockup expiry and other ECM linked events that were covered by the team over the past week.

Sumeet Singh

Asia/Pacific Stocks Outlook For the Week Sep 15-19

Our weekly stocks outlook directional forecast, generated with on our proprietary probability models. Overbought markets are expected to go down,...

Nico Rosti

Global Markets Tactical Outlook: WEEKLY Recap (Sep 8 – Sep 12)

Tactical WEEKLY review for global markets for the week of September 1-5, with overbought and oversold analysis. Anticipate inflection points before...

Nico Rosti

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Bank of Japan’s Rate Decision on Sept 19: Does Timing Signal the Outcome?

The Bank of Japan (BoJ) will announce its monetary policy decision on Friday, 19 September 2025. The BoJ announces its decisions flexibly, usually...

Gaudenz Schneider

ECM Weekly (15 September 2025)- Chery, Zijin Gold, Hesai, Orion, Myungin, Urban, Nio, Kotak, Toei

Aequitas Research's weekly update on the IPOs, placements, lockup expiry and other ECM linked events that were covered by the team over the past week.

Sumeet Singh

Asia/Pacific Stocks Outlook For the Week Sep 15-19

​Our weekly stocks outlook directional forecast, generated with on our proprietary probability models. Overbought markets are expected to go down,...

Nico Rosti

Japan Morning Connection: Oracle +36% Pulls Most AI Related Sharply Higher, Expect Softbank Strength

iPhone Air failed to impress, sending Apple lower. Oracle's success read as being negative for other AI hyper scalers. Synopsis down from export...

Andrew Jackson

Global Markets Tactical Outlook: WEEKLY Recap (Sep 8 – Sep 12)

Tactical WEEKLY review for global markets for the week of September 1-5, with overbought and oversold analysis. Anticipate inflection points before...

Nico Rosti

Our weekly stocks outlook directional forecast, generated with on our proprietary probability models. Overbought markets are expected to go down,...