Telco/Internet specialist

Kirk Boodry

Redex Research

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

The Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications (MIC, the regulator) should announce policy changes by the end of the month that make it easier for users to switch mobile carriers. That probably leads to modestly higher customer churn although service bundles/loyalty plans mute the impact. It is also an implicit recognition that the lower pricing levels found at MVNOs and Rakuten are acceptable and that improving the ability to change carriers is what is important. As a result, greater clarity on regulator intensions and near-term price reductions led by Softbank should be enough to ease recent political/regulatory pressure. A proposal to move to eSIMs is of special benefit to Rakuten which developed its provisioning systems with technologies like that in mind.

The Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications (MIC, the regulator) should announce policy changes by the end of the month that make it easier for users to switch mobile carriers. That probably leads to modestly higher customer churn although service bundles/loyalty plans mute the impact. It is also an implicit recognition that the lower pricing levels found at MVNOs and Rakuten are acceptable and that improving the ability to change carriers is what is important. As a result, greater clarity on regulator intensions and near-term price reductions led by Softbank should be enough to ease recent political/regulatory pressure. A proposal to move to eSIMs is of special benefit to Rakuten which developed its provisioning systems with technologies like that in mind.  

Japan Telecom Sector: Regulator Policy Changes Address Tactics Not Price

Regulatory concerns in Japan have returned as the new Prime Minister has made mobile pricing a key talking point. And it now appears likely that Softbank will carve out a new 20-30GB data tier at ¥5,000/month to address that. We expect that DoCoMo and KDDI (to a lesser degree) will have to follow. NTT is the most exposed as DoCoMo was late to the game in moving up to offering extra-large data bundles and its Gigaho 30GB plan is priced at ¥7,150/month. On the surface, this move gives the Prime Minister a win and should ease regulatory pressure and whilst mobile revenue erosion will accelerate, tiered pricing should help manage the downside. The main issue heading into reporting season is how much of a return to customers this is and whether the political and regulatory pressure will ease.

Regulatory concerns in Japan have returned as the new Prime Minister has made mobile pricing a key talking point. And it now appears likely that Softbank will carve out a new 20-30GB data tier at ¥5,000/month to address that. We expect that DoCoMo and KDDI (to a lesser degree) will have to follow. NTT is the most exposed as DoCoMo was late to the game in moving up to offering extra-large data bundles and its Gigaho 30GB plan is priced at ¥7,150/month. On the surface, this move gives the Prime Minister a win and should ease regulatory pressure and whilst mobile revenue erosion will accelerate, tiered pricing should help manage the downside. The main issue heading into reporting season is how much of a return to customers this is and whether the political and regulatory pressure will ease. 

Japan Telecom Sector: Softbank Moves First on Pricing

'Quantamental' Japan Specialist, LightStream Research

Campbell Gunn

'Quantamental' Japan Specialist

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/158/693/original/2020-09-14_09-50-37.png?1600044664" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="158693"></figure><div class="content-caption">Source for all charts &amp; tables except as stated: Japan Analytics</div>EQUITY-DRIVEN - Japan's aggregate Shareholders' Equity has appreciated by 45% since 2014 - an annual rate of 5.5% and has been one of the key achievements of the 'Abe era'. For the five years before 2012, Shareholders Equity was unchanged, buffeted by the 2008/9 financial crisis and the 3/11.  Although the equity market has responded well to the change in reserves, Japan's PBR has remained within a range of 1.05 to 1.38 over the last decade and is unchanged compared to 2010. In prior post-bubble 'lost' decades, the average PBR was 1.8 times. In other markets, the rise of intangible assets has called the use of Book/Price as a metric and the S&amp;P 500 PBR is now almost three times that of the Japan aggregate having bottomed at 1.78 in March 2009.<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/158/694/original/File%202020-09-14%2010%2007%2037.jpeg?1600045681" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="158694"></figure><div class="content-caption">Source: multpl.com</div>BOOK VALUE PER SHARE - In this Insight, we shall look at Japan's larger-cap companies (current market value &gt;¥100 billion) through the 'lens' of book value per share. Our focus will be less on the 'winners' and 'losers' than on those companies that have seen the least change in 'BVPS' over the last seven years. Our share count excludes treasury shares which is to the benefit of companies such as <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nippon-telegraph-telephone-corporation" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:623:1" rel="noopener">NTT (9432 JP)</a> which has seen a 20% reduction in Net Shares Outstanding, but only a 9% increase in Shareholders' Equity. A BVPS growth metric does, however, flatter serial issuers of equity with declining share prices, such as <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sosei-group-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:770:1" rel="noopener">Sosei (4565 JP)</a>.<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/158/696/original/2020-09-14_10-26-48.png?1600046818" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="158696"></figure>WINNERS - As many may ask and for the record, our 'winning' thirty companies contains many of Japan's best-performing businesses and 'priciest 'stocks, such as <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/monotaro-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15441:1" rel="noopener">Monotaro (3064 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/m3-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13316:1" rel="noopener">M3 (2413 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/gmo-payment-gateway-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1492:1" rel="noopener">GMO Payment Gateway (3769 JP)</a>, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kobe-bussan-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4701:1" rel="noopener">Kobe Bussan (3038 JP)</a>. Some of the more surprising entries are <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mixi-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:602:1" rel="noopener">mixi (2121 JP)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tokyo-electric-power-co-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15457:1" rel="noopener">Tokyo Electric Power (9501 JP)</a>.  As an equally-weighted portfolio, this group has outperformed by 30% over one year and by 11% over the last three months.<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/158/697/original/2020-09-14_10-33-13.png?1600047204" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="158697"></figure><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/158/698/original/2020-09-14_10-33-41.png?1600047231" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="158698"></figure><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/158/701/original/2020-09-14_10-47-56.png?1600048087" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="158701"></figure>LOSERS - Our list of losers, who have collectively underperformed by 9% over one year, have many of Japan's weaker business models (shipping, oil &amp; gas, paper, copiers, gaming machines. The list also features some of the less-astute management 'teams' (<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/toshiba-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:637:1" rel="noopener">Toshiba (6502 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nissan-motor-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:72:1" rel="noopener">Nissan (7201 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kirin-holdings-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16977:1" rel="noopener">Kirin (2503 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/lixil-group-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:454:1" rel="noopener">Lixil (5938 JP)</a>, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/aeon-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3:1" rel="noopener">Aeon (8267 JP)</a>).  Also among the latter are two medical-related business - the now remained <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/h-u-group-holdings-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16580:1" rel="noopener">H.U. Group (4544 JP)</a> (formerly Miraca) and recent Bain PE target <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nichii-gakkan-co" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6790:1" rel="noopener">Nichii Gakkan (9792 JP)</a>.<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/158/706/original/2020-09-14_10-57-45.png?1600048692" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="158706"></figure><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/158/707/original/2020-09-14_10-59-22.png?1600048774" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="158707"></figure>In the DETAIL section below, we all review the large companies that have seen the least change in BVPS over the last seven years and those with the lowest BVPS volatility over the same period. Our lists contain quite a few surprises.

Source for all charts &amp; tables except as stated: Japan AnalyticsEQUITY-DRIVEN - Japan's aggregate Shareholders' Equity has appreciated by 45% since 2014 - an annual rate of 5.5% and has been one of the key achievements of the 'Abe era'. For the five years before 2012, Shareholders Equity was unchanged, buffeted by the 2008/9 financial crisis and the 3/11.  Although the equity market has responded well to the change in reserves, Japan's PBR has remained within a range of 1.05 to 1.38 over the last decade and is unchanged compared to 2010. In prior post-bubble 'lost' decades, the average PBR was 1.8 times. In other markets, the rise of intangible assets has called the use of Book/Price as a metric and the S&amp;P 500 PBR is now almost three times that of the Japan aggregate having bottomed at 1.78 in March 2009.Source: multpl.comBOOK VALUE PER SHARE - In this Insight, we shall look at Japan's larger-cap companies (current market value &gt;¥100 billion) through the 'lens' of book value per share. Our focus will be less on the 'winners' and 'losers' than on those companies that have seen the least change in 'BVPS' over the last seven years. Our share count excludes treasury shares which is to the benefit of companies such as NTT (9432 JP) which has seen a 20% reduction in Net Shares Outstanding, but only a 9% increase in Shareholders' Equity. A BVPS growth metric does, however, flatter serial issuers of equity with declining share prices, such as Sosei (4565 JP).WINNERS - As many may ask and for the record, our 'winning' thirty companies contains many of Japan's best-performing businesses and 'priciest 'stocks, such as Monotaro (3064 JP), M3 (2413 JP), GMO Payment Gateway (3769 JP), and Kobe Bussan (3038 JP). Some of the more surprising entries are mixi (2121 JP) and Tokyo Electric Power (9501 JP).  As an equally-weighted portfolio, this group has outperformed by 30% over one year and by 11% over the last three months.LOSERS - Our list of losers, who have collectively underperformed by 9% over one year, have many of Japan's weaker business models (shipping, oil &amp; gas, paper, copiers, gaming machines. The list also features some of the less-astute management 'teams' (Toshiba (6502 JP), Nissan (7201 JP), Kirin (2503 JP), Lixil (5938 JP), and Aeon (8267 JP)).  Also among the latter are two medical-related business - the now remained H.U. Group (4544 JP) (formerly Miraca) and recent Bain PE target Nichii Gakkan (9792 JP).In the DETAIL section below, we all review the large companies that have seen the least change in BVPS over the last seven years and those with the lowest BVPS volatility over the same period. Our lists contain quite a few surprises.

🇯🇵 Japan • Every Shareholder Left Behind - The Book Value Per Share Metric

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sk-hynix-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16955:1" rel="noopener">SK Hynix (000660 KS)</a> (SKH), a leading global memory producer, aims to raise up to US$30bn via an ADR listing.</li>
<li>SKH has now announced the details for its raising, which could see the ADR’s being listed next month.</li>
<li>We have looked at the past performance and other deal dynamics, in our previous note. In this note, we talk about the recent updates.</li>
</ul>



SK Hynix (000660 KS) (SKH), a leading global memory producer, aims to raise up to US$30bn via an ADR listing.
SKH has now announced the details for its raising, which could see the ADR’s being listed next month.
We have looked at the past performance and other deal dynamics, in our previous note. In this note, we talk about the recent updates.


Aequitas: SK Hynix ADR Listing - Now Looking to Raise up to US$30bn - Updates, Valuation, ADR Prem

Kioxia Holdings  / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>Aequitas Research's weekly update on the IPOs, placements, lockup expiry and other ECM linked events that were covered by the team over the past week.</li>
<li>On the IPO front <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/space-exploration-technologies-corp-spacex" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:33284:1" rel="noopener">SpaceX (SPCX US)'s</a> succesful listing appears to have set off a deal frenzy in Hong Kong.</li>
<li>Over the past week, there were a number of placements in India, along with a few large deals in Hong Kong as well.</li>
</ul>


Aequitas Research's weekly update on the IPOs, placements, lockup expiry and other ECM linked events that were covered by the team over the past week.
On the IPO front SpaceX (SPCX US)'s succesful listing appears to have set off a deal frenzy in Hong Kong.
Over the past week, there were a number of placements in India, along with a few large deals in Hong Kong as well.


Aequitas ECM Weekly (22 June 2026) - SpaceX, GO, Lingyi, SG Micro, Circuit Fab, Merdeka, Kioxia, NSE

Japan

Softbank Corporation provides mobile phone telecommunication and networking services. The Company offers mobile communication opening, short messaging function opening, video function opening, and other services. Softbank also provides mobile phones.

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Softbank Corp (9434 JP)

Japan Telecom Sector: Regulator Policy Changes Address Tactics Not Price

The regulatory is expected to announce policy updates that address how users change to cheaper priced options. Churn could rise but service bundles...

Kirk Boodry

Japan Telecom Sector: Softbank Moves First on Pricing

Softbank's response to regulatory pressure should be enough if sector follows suit. NTT is most exposed after announcing a premium bid for DoCoMo

Kirk Boodry

Aequitas: SK Hynix ADR Listing - Now Looking to Raise up to US$30bn - Updates, Valuation, ADR Prem

SK Hynix (000660 KS) (SKH), a leading global memory producer, aims to raise up to US$30bn via an ADR listing. In this note, we talk about the...

Sumeet Singh

Aequitas ECM Weekly (22 June 2026) - SpaceX, GO, Lingyi, SG Micro, Circuit Fab, Merdeka, Kioxia, NSE

Aequitas Research's weekly update on the IPOs, placements, lockup expiry and other ECM linked events that were covered by the team over the past week.

Sumeet Singh

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Japan Telecom Sector: Regulator Policy Changes Address Tactics Not Price

The regulatory is expected to announce policy updates that address how users change to cheaper priced options. Churn could rise but service bundles...

Kirk Boodry

Japan Telecom Sector: Softbank Moves First on Pricing

Softbank's response to regulatory pressure should be enough if sector follows suit. NTT is most exposed after announcing a premium bid for DoCoMo

Kirk Boodry

🇯🇵 Japan • Every Shareholder Left Behind - The Book Value Per Share Metric

EQUITY-DRIVEN - Japans

Campbell Gunn

Aequitas: SK Hynix ADR Listing - Now Looking to Raise up to US$30bn - Updates, Valuation, ADR Prem

SK Hynix (000660 KS) (SKH), a leading global memory producer, aims to raise up to US$30bn via an ADR listing. In this note, we talk about the...

Sumeet Singh

Aequitas ECM Weekly (22 June 2026) - SpaceX, GO, Lingyi, SG Micro, Circuit Fab, Merdeka, Kioxia, NSE

Aequitas Research's weekly update on the IPOs, placements, lockup expiry and other ECM linked events that were covered by the team over the past week.

Sumeet Singh