Asian Insight Provider - Actionable ideas, CrossASEAN Research

Henry Soediarko

Asian Insight Provider - Actionable ideas

CrossASEAN Research

At CrossASEAN Research we strive to produce unbiased and differentiated on the ground insights on companies across South East Asia. Our Research is produced for the most part after face to face meetings and conversations with company management to dig deep into the long term vision and strategy of the companies we cover. We seek to deliver investable and actionable themes on sectors and markets across SE Asia, often in collaboration with other Insight Providers across the region, pooling the vast experience of the analysts within the Smartkarma Ecosystem. We also offer bespoke work and tailor made trips for our clients. 

Insights across South East Asia

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<div>
<div>During COVID-19, tech stocks have led the markets supported by demand expansion, strong balance sheets filled with cash, and innovative products. At the end of the cycle, there should be a rotation towards cyclical and value stocks but this time around is policy-induced recovery and during the COVID-19 crisis, tech stocks have led the recovery ahead of the cyclical. The question is whether this will carry on and large tech names to continue leading market recovery while cyclical drag their feet?</div>
</div>
<div></div>
<div>The regulator in China has given dominant tech names a slap in the wrist with the anti-trust law that proposes to democratize the payment systems that will inevitably break up the monopolies and these companies will lose their customers' stickiness. </div>
<div>
<div></div>
</div>
<div>In light of the <strong>antitrust</strong> law and the real economic recovery in China, investors should start to underweight technology stocks in China such as Tencent, Alibaba, Meituan, and start to overweight travel and tourism stocks such as <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/air-china-ltd-a" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1080:1" rel="noopener">Air China Ltd (A) (601111 CH)</a> , <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/travelsky-technology-ltd-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:19829:1" rel="noopener">Travelsky Technology Ltd H (696 HK)</a> , <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/cathay-pacific-airways-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:243:1" rel="noopener">Cathay Pacific Airways (293 HK)</a> and also Industrials such as <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/zoomlion-heavy-industry-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7817:1" rel="noopener">Zoomlion Heavy Industry H (1157 HK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sany-heavy-equipment-intl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11104:1" rel="noopener">Sany Heavy Equipment Intl (631 HK)</a>expecting that construction works can resume at full capacity anytime soon. </div>
<div></div>
<div>Globally, dominant tech stocks (FANGS) such as <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/facebook-inc-a" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:665:1" rel="noopener">Facebook Inc A (FB US)</a> , <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/apple-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:666:1" rel="noopener">Apple Inc (AAPL US)</a> , <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/netflix-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20451:1" rel="noopener">Netflix Inc (NFLX US)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/alphabet-inc-cl-c" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11369:1" rel="noopener">Alphabet Inc Cl C (GOOG US)</a> should start to be underweight due to the potential punitive measures from the House if Democrats win. Investors should start to overweight industrial stocks such as <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/caterpillar-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:697:1" rel="noopener">Caterpillar Inc (CAT US)</a> and staples such as <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/procter-gamble-co" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:978:1" rel="noopener">Procter &amp; Gamble Co (PG US)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nestle-sa-020546b9-e58a-465b-a5ac-98e84143bf4c" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27908:1" rel="noopener">Nestle SA (NESN SW)</a> . </div>
<div></div>
<div>Investors should also consider start building positions in blue-chip with moat names such as <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/visa-inc-class-a-shares" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8707:1" rel="noopener">Visa Inc Class A Shares (V US)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/travelers-cos-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10300:1" rel="noopener">Travelers Cos (TRV US)</a> as they provide stability and proxy to America's economic recovery. </div>


During COVID-19, tech stocks have led the markets supported by demand expansion, strong balance sheets filled with cash, and innovative products. At the end of the cycle, there should be a rotation towards cyclical and value stocks but this time around is policy-induced recovery and during the COVID-19 crisis, tech stocks have led the recovery ahead of the cyclical. The question is whether this will carry on and large tech names to continue leading market recovery while cyclical drag their feet?


The regulator in China has given dominant tech names a slap in the wrist with the anti-trust law that proposes to democratize the payment systems that will inevitably break up the monopolies and these companies will lose their customers' stickiness. 



In light of the antitrust law and the real economic recovery in China, investors should start to underweight technology stocks in China such as Tencent, Alibaba, Meituan, and start to overweight travel and tourism stocks such as Air China Ltd (A) (601111 CH) , Travelsky Technology Ltd H (696 HK) , Cathay Pacific Airways (293 HK) and also Industrials such as Zoomlion Heavy Industry H (1157 HK) and Sany Heavy Equipment Intl (631 HK)expecting that construction works can resume at full capacity anytime soon. 

Globally, dominant tech stocks (FANGS) such as Facebook Inc A (FB US) , Apple Inc (AAPL US) , Netflix Inc (NFLX US) and Alphabet Inc Cl C (GOOG US) should start to be underweight due to the potential punitive measures from the House if Democrats win. Investors should start to overweight industrial stocks such as Caterpillar Inc (CAT US) and staples such as Procter &amp; Gamble Co (PG US) and Nestle SA (NESN SW) . 

Investors should also consider start building positions in blue-chip with moat names such as Visa Inc Class A Shares (V US) and Travelers Cos (TRV US) as they provide stability and proxy to America's economic recovery. 

Japan/Asia Long-Short, LightStream Research

Mio Kato

Japan/Asia Long-Short

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

Equity Bottom-Up

<p>Softbank released its 2Q earnings yesterday with a bounce back to profitability thanks to strong gains by global stock markets. We would direct readers to Kirk Boodry’s analysis of the details <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/softbank-group-q2-20-results-vision-fund-luster-tarnished-by-derivative-losses" target="_blank" rel="noopener">here</a>, but what we would focus on is the question that Masayoshi tried, and in our opinion failed, to address.</p><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/170/512/original/image_30076723321604989772377.png?1604989774" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="170512"></figure>

Softbank released its 2Q earnings yesterday with a bounce back to profitability thanks to strong gains by global stock markets. We would direct readers to Kirk Boodry’s analysis of the details here, but what we would focus on is the question that Masayoshi tried, and in our opinion failed, to address.

Senior Credit Analyst, Lucror Analytics

Trung Nguyen

Senior Credit Analyst

High Yield Experts

Lucror Analytics

Lucror Analytics is a leading credit and ESG research specialist and a provider of technology solutions for differentiated fixed income strategies. Our roots are in bottom-up fundamental credit analysis with a specialization in high yield corporate credits from Europe, Asia and Latin America. We are one of few research specialists integrating ESG considerations with fundamental credit research through a dedicated ESG platform. Our ESG assessment covers five key criteria: Disclosure, E,S, & G Pillars, Controversies, ESG Impact on Credit and ESG Momentum.

Recognizing the importance and value-add of Factor Investing in fixed income, Lucror developed the Smart Quant Navigator (SQN), an intuitive platform that helps clients devise and implement factor-based strategies ranging from pure quant to active fundamental, with integrated ESG.

Our company has been at the forefront of developments in the fixed income markets, identifying opportunities and consistently delivering new products and value-adding solutions to clients. Lucror has close relationships with the largest and most reputable asset managers, family offices, hedge funds, investment and wealth managers globally.

Credit

<p><br/> Softbank Group (SBG) reported robust results for Q2/20-21, with the large increase in NAV coming as no surprise as the Nasdaq has been at all-time highs. The rise in NAV was driven by share-price appreciation for Alibaba and other SBG/Vision Fund holdings, and most notably the Beike IPO in August 2020. The financial risk profile remains robust, with the LTV low at 12%. The disclosure relating to the group's new fund investing in tech stocks and options also addresses earlier rumours on the actual scale of the operation. Positively, it appears that SBG is happy to invest the large proceeds of its earlier asset sales into tech stocks instead of pulling a debt-funded management buyout of the group, which would be highly credit negative. It is also encouraging to see SBG make an effort to improve its corporate governance.<br/></p>

  Softbank Group (SBG) reported robust results for Q2/20-21, with the large increase in NAV coming as no surprise as the Nasdaq has been at all-time highs. The rise in NAV was driven by share-price appreciation for Alibaba and other SBG/Vision Fund holdings, and most notably the Beike IPO in August 2020. The financial risk profile remains robust, with the LTV low at 12%. The disclosure relating to the group's new fund investing in tech stocks and options also addresses earlier rumours on the actual scale of the operation. Positively, it appears that SBG is happy to invest the large proceeds of its earlier asset sales into tech stocks instead of pulling a debt-funded management buyout of the group, which would be highly credit negative. It is also encouraging to see SBG make an effort to improve its corporate governance. 

Softbank Group - Earnings Flash - Q2 FY 2020-21 Results - Lucror Analytics

Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs, Douglas Research Advisory

Douglas Kim

Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs

Event-Driven

<div class="content-highlight"><p>According to <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-11-09/softbank-is-said-to-be-in-talks-to-sell-robot-maker-to-hyundai" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Bloomberg</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hyundai-motor-co" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:155:1" rel="noopener">Hyundai Motor Co (005380 KS)</a> is in discussions to purchase Boston Dynamics. Although the exact terms are yet to be finalized, the local media mentioned that the purchase <a href="https://view.asiae.co.kr/article/2020111011314146483" target="_blank" rel="noopener">price</a> could fetch nearly $1 billion for the control of Boston Dynamics, which is best known for one of the most advanced robotic systems in the world including BigDog and the humanoid Atlas.</p></div><p>If the deal is successfully completed, we think that the market would view this deal positively on Hyundai Motor. Keep in mind that this M&amp;A deal could potentially fall apart due to many issues including price.  </p>

According to Bloomberg, Hyundai Motor Co (005380 KS) is in discussions to purchase Boston Dynamics. Although the exact terms are yet to be finalized, the local media mentioned that the purchase price could fetch nearly $1 billion for the control of Boston Dynamics, which is best known for one of the most advanced robotic systems in the world including BigDog and the humanoid Atlas.If the deal is successfully completed, we think that the market would view this deal positively on Hyundai Motor. Keep in mind that this M&amp;A deal could potentially fall apart due to many issues including price.  

Korea M&A Spotlight: Hyundai Motor In Talks to Acquire Boston Dynamics from Softbank

Telco/Internet specialist

Kirk Boodry

Redex Research

<p>Softbank posted solid Q2 results helped by further market gains in the US (for both Vision Fund and its listed share program) and the timely IPO of recent investment Beike in August. But a $2.8bn derivative loss wiped out public market investment gains and highlights the risk from more aggressive trading. Softbank had $3.4bn in options exposure as of Q2 and whilst that is only 1% of net asset value, it is more meaningful when measured against market cap (3%) and with the next portfolio update not coming until February it is understandable why the discount to fair value remains wide</p>

Softbank posted solid Q2 results helped by further market gains in the US (for both Vision Fund and its listed share program) and the timely IPO of recent investment Beike in August. But a $2.8bn derivative loss wiped out public market investment gains and highlights the risk from more aggressive trading. Softbank had $3.4bn in options exposure as of Q2 and whilst that is only 1% of net asset value, it is more meaningful when measured against market cap (3%) and with the next portfolio update not coming until February it is understandable why the discount to fair value remains wide

Softbank Group - Q2 20 Results: Vision Fund Luster Tarnished by Derivative Losses

Japan

SoftBank Group Corp. provides telecommunication services. The Company also operates ADSL (Asymmetric Digital Subscriber Line) and fiber optic high-speed Internet connection, e-Commerce businesses, and Internet based advertising and auction businesses.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

Softbank Group (9984 JP)

Tech Sell-Off: Stop or Carry On?

In light of the anti-trust law in China, real economic recovery, higher corporate tax rates in the US, and breakup of dominant tech firms,...

Henry Soediarko

Softbank – What Is Softbank Indeed

Softbank continues to try and convince investors that it is a better investor than they are, whereas we argue that really they are just more...

Mio Kato

Softbank Group - Earnings Flash - Q2 FY 2020-21 Results - Lucror Analytics

Softbank Group (SBG) reported robust results for Q2/20-21, with the large increase in NAV coming as no surprise as the Nasdaq has been at...

Lucror Analytics

Korea M&A Spotlight: Hyundai Motor In Talks to Acquire Boston Dynamics from Softbank

Hyundai Motor is in discussions to acquire Boston Dynamics from Softbank. Boston Dynamics has one of the most advanced robotic systems in the...

Douglas Kim

Softbank Group - Q2 20 Results: Vision Fund Luster Tarnished by Derivative Losses

Returns at Vision Fund has come roaring back but a $2.8bn derivative trading loss highlights the higher risk profile with Softbank's new listed...

Kirk Boodry

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)