IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Equity Capital Markets

Nippon Express Holdings / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nippon-express-holdings-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18582:1" rel="noopener">Nippon Express Holdings (9147 JP)</a> has announced a secondary offering of up to 4.8 million shares (including overallotment). There are seven selling shareholders.</li>
<li>The secondary offering comes ahead of the implementation of regulatory restrictions on truck drivers' overtime in April 2024, which is widely known as the ‘2024 Problem’.</li>
<li>Looking at recent large Japanese placements is instructive for understanding the potential offer price. The pricing date will likely fall between 11 and 13 March (likely 11 March).</li>
</ul>



Nippon Express Holdings (9147 JP) has announced a secondary offering of up to 4.8 million shares (including overallotment). There are seven selling shareholders.
The secondary offering comes ahead of the implementation of regulatory restrictions on truck drivers' overtime in April 2024, which is widely known as the ‘2024 Problem’.
Looking at recent large Japanese placements is instructive for understanding the potential offer price. The pricing date will likely fall between 11 and 13 March (likely 11 March).


Nippon Express (9147 JP): A US$260 Million Secondary Offering

Research and consultancy, Tabbush Report

Daniel Tabbush

Research and consultancy

Tabbush Report

We provide research and consultancy on Asian banks. Our focus is on what we call “Asian bank research, without the noise.” We are interested in the most critical swing-factors for banks, the NPL and credit cycle, and where we believe there is a gap between perception and reality. We often focus on the less studied components of bank financial statements.  Our research is highly thematic, sometimes examining unlisted banks and companies as a window on mainstream banks. 

Being independent allows us to look at smaller banks, often overlooked by others. Analysis of BIS bank guidelines in the context of Asia, is also a focal point, while we also analyze global banks operating in the region. We use what we believe is the most comprehensive, reliable financials database, SNL Financial. S&P Capital IQ augments our database, with corporate data and CEIC, with economics. 

Asian bank research, without the noise.

Equity Bottom-Up

Dai Ichi Life Insurance / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/dai-ichi-life-insurance" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1109:1" rel="noopener">Dai Ichi Life Insurance (8750 JP)</a> has seen rebounding net profit at a strong rate of growth for the past four quarters. </li>
<li>ROE has moved from a dismal 3.4% to 11.8% from 2Q23 to 2Q24, where a single US bank impairment should now drop out of the numbers</li>
<li>New business annual premiums are up from JPY97bn to JPY122bn from 2Q23 to 2Q24 with a high solvency ratio of 654% </li>
</ul>



Dai Ichi Life Insurance (8750 JP) has seen rebounding net profit at a strong rate of growth for the past four quarters. 
ROE has moved from a dismal 3.4% to 11.8% from 2Q23 to 2Q24, where a single US bank impairment should now drop out of the numbers
New business annual premiums are up from JPY97bn to JPY122bn from 2Q23 to 2Q24 with a high solvency ratio of 654% 


Dai-Ichi Life Holdings - 4 Quarters Strongly Rising Profit, ROE: 3% to 12%, A Profit Upgrade?

Insurance & Central Asia-focused Analyst, KT Capital Group

Alec Tseung

Insurance & Central Asia-focused Analyst

KT Capital Group

Principal investments and advisory firm that focuses on connecting the CIS countries with East Asia.

Principal investments and advisory firm

<ul>
<li>Japan Post Insurance might seem undervalued based on a regression analysis, but its relatively strong RoE was due to extraordinary gains.</li>
<li>The company has a much larger portion of its investment securities being carried at cost on the balance sheet vs. its peer, Dai-ichi Life.  </li>
<li>Against the backdrop of Japan's "higher for longer" theme, its embedded value growth could be under more pressure due to ANW's m-t-m adjustments and very weak new business value.</li>
</ul>


Japan Post Insurance might seem undervalued based on a regression analysis, but its relatively strong RoE was due to extraordinary gains.
The company has a much larger portion of its investment securities being carried at cost on the balance sheet vs. its peer, Dai-ichi Life.  
Against the backdrop of Japan's "higher for longer" theme, its embedded value growth could be under more pressure due to ANW's m-t-m adjustments and very weak new business value.


Japan Post Insurance: Embedded Value Unlikely to Benefit from a Rate Increase

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>The TOPIX Insurance Sector sees the worst net flows as a percentage of index weight among the 33 sectors in the April-June FFW Transition.</li>
<li>On a net basis, rebalance flows favour <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/japan-post-insurance-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:840:1" rel="noopener">Japan Post Insurance (7181 JP)</a> vs <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/t-d-holdings-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3431:1" rel="noopener">T&amp;D Holdings (8795 JP)</a> (finishing a buyback) and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/dai-ichi-life-insurance" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1109:1" rel="noopener">Dai Ichi Life Insurance (8750 JP)</a> (just finished).</li>
<li>JPI has underperformed both over the last three years despite growing BVPS by more. And earnings should be a blowout. </li>
</ul>


The TOPIX Insurance Sector sees the worst net flows as a percentage of index weight among the 33 sectors in the April-June FFW Transition.
On a net basis, rebalance flows favour Japan Post Insurance (7181 JP) vs T&amp;D Holdings (8795 JP) (finishing a buyback) and Dai Ichi Life Insurance (8750 JP) (just finished).
JPI has underperformed both over the last three years despite growing BVPS by more. And earnings should be a blowout. 


Topix FFW Transition - Insurance Sector a Big Net Sell

NTT (Nippon Telegraph & Telephone) / Event-Driven

NTT (Nippon Telegraph & Telephone) (9432 JP)

<ul>
<li>NTT sees a US$1 billion selldown of shares on Wednesday 29 December. </li>
<li>This is due to a weird quirk in the way TOPIX and JPX Nikkei 400 are constructed and managed - a quirk not generally seen in other major index families.</li>
<li>NTT is cheap to peers, and NTT / Peer EPSe Ratios continue to grow, up and to the right.</li>
</ul>


NTT sees a US$1 billion selldown of shares on Wednesday 29 December. 
This is due to a weird quirk in the way TOPIX and JPX Nikkei 400 are constructed and managed - a quirk not generally seen in other major index families.
NTT is cheap to peers, and NTT / Peer EPSe Ratios continue to grow, up and to the right.


Watch the $1bn Sell-On-Close on NTT (9432) Wednesday

Japan

Sompo Holdings, Inc, is a holding company established through the integration of Sompo Japan Insurance Inc. and NIPPONKOA Insurance Company Limited. Through subsidiaries, the Company provides non-life insurance including marine, fire, and automobile, as well as life insurance.

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Sompo Holdings (8630 JP)

Nippon Express (9147 JP): A US$260 Million Secondary Offering

Looking at recent large Japanese placements is instructive for understanding the potential offer price. The pricing date will likely fall between...

Arun George

Dai-Ichi Life Holdings - 4 Quarters Strongly Rising Profit, ROE: 3% to 12%, A Profit Upgrade?

Dai-ichi Life Holdings is a sprawling global insurer and asset manager, with Japan, Australia and US as key markets. Profit is improving strongly,...

Daniel Tabbush

Japan Post Insurance: Embedded Value Unlikely to Benefit from a Rate Increase

Japan Post Insurance's share price has come down by c. 10% since its peak when the note was published in mid. Nov. underperforming both the broader...

Alec Tseung

Topix FFW Transition - Insurance Sector a Big Net Sell

TOPIX FFW Rebalance disfavours the insurance sector as 1.55% of float is a net sell over three months. The intra-sector flows favor Japan Post...

Travis Lundy

Watch the $1bn Sell-On-Close on NTT (9432) Wednesday

NTT cancelled shares in November. That leads to a TOPIX event selldown at end-December. For NTT it is US$1bn. But NTT remains undeservedly cheap to...

Travis Lundy

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