European Event-Driven Analyst

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>On 22 May, Anglo American rejected the last offer (0.8860) from BHP on execution risks, potential negative value impacts and additional approvals needed in South Africa. PUSU extended 29 May.</li>
<li>I update my SOTP to 2938p. Copper Fair Value, in my opinion, is £17.70 per share. This contrasts with BHP's current offer of £21.32/share for the entirety of Anglo's rump.</li>
<li>There is now a ~20.1% difference between the implied value of BHP's offer and the share price of Anglo. The market assumes a lower likelihood of an agreed deal</li>
</ul>


On 22 May, Anglo American rejected the last offer (0.8860) from BHP on execution risks, potential negative value impacts and additional approvals needed in South Africa. PUSU extended 29 May.
I update my SOTP to 2938p. Copper Fair Value, in my opinion, is £17.70 per share. This contrasts with BHP's current offer of £21.32/share for the entirety of Anglo's rump.
There is now a ~20.1% difference between the implied value of BHP's offer and the share price of Anglo. The market assumes a lower likelihood of an agreed deal


Anglo American Rejects BHP's Increased and Final Offer

Index Rebal/Special Situations, Quiddity Advisors

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Index Rebal/Special Situations

Quiddity Advisors

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>In this insight, we take a look at the potential index changes for ASX 200, 100, 50, and 20 in the run-up to the June 2024 index rebal event.</li>
<li>We expect one ASX 20 change and two ASX 100 changes during the regular rebalance event.</li>
<li>For the ASX 200 index, there could be two intra-review changes in the month of June 2024 and one of those names could be a surprise.</li>
</ul>


In this insight, we take a look at the potential index changes for ASX 200, 100, 50, and 20 in the run-up to the June 2024 index rebal event.
We expect one ASX 20 change and two ASX 100 changes during the regular rebalance event.
For the ASX 200 index, there could be two intra-review changes in the month of June 2024 and one of those names could be a surprise.


Quiddity Leaderboard ASX Jun 24: Intra-Review Replacement Surprise Possible

Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal, Shenton Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China Biotech

DZT Research

DZT Research is an independent Asia Pacific equity specialist. Our quantitative research covers index rebalancing flows, alongside exchange data analytics accross Asia Pacific. On the equity capital markets side, we focus on Asia Pacific ECM, especially biotech and TMT. Our lead analyst is frequently cited by international media.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyzed the changes in short interest of ASX Stocks as of May 10th (reported today) which has an aggregated short interest worth USD20.0bn.</li>
<li>We tabulate league table for top short by value and short as multiple of ADT, as well as weekly increases &amp; decreases in short value, short as multiple of ADT.</li>
<li>We highlight short interest changes in BHP, ANZ, Seven, South32, NAB, Telstra, Woolworths, Origin Energy, Xero.</li>
</ul>


We analyzed the changes in short interest of ASX Stocks as of May 10th (reported today) which has an aggregated short interest worth USD20.0bn.
We tabulate league table for top short by value and short as multiple of ADT, as well as weekly increases &amp; decreases in short value, short as multiple of ADT.
We highlight short interest changes in BHP, ANZ, Seven, South32, NAB, Telstra, Woolworths, Origin Energy, Xero.


ASX Short Interest Weekly (May 10th): BHP, ANZ, Seven, South32, NAB, Telstra, Woolworths

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

<ul>
<li>With three-quarters of the review period complete, there could be a bunch of changes across the S&amp;P/ASX family of indices in June.</li>
<li>The <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/red-5-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7940:1" rel="noopener">Red 5 Ltd (RED AU)</a> / <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/silver-lake-resources-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6529:1" rel="noopener">Silver Lake Resources (SLR AU)</a> merger could lead to an ad hoc change prior to the implementation of the June rebalance.</li>
<li>There will be 1.6-25 days of ADV to buy from passives in the inclusions while the impact on the deletions will range between 0.8-11 days of ADV.</li>
</ul>


With three-quarters of the review period complete, there could be a bunch of changes across the S&amp;P/ASX family of indices in June.
The Red 5 Ltd (RED AU) / Silver Lake Resources (SLR AU) merger could lead to an ad hoc change prior to the implementation of the June rebalance.
There will be 1.6-25 days of ADV to buy from passives in the inclusions while the impact on the deletions will range between 0.8-11 days of ADV.


S&P/​​​​​​​​​ASX Index Rebalance Preview: Potential Changes from Now to June

<ul>
<li>We analyzed the changes in short interest of ASX Stocks as of Apr 12th (reported today) which has an aggregated short interest worth USD19.0bn.</li>
<li>We tabulate league table for top short by value and short as multiple of ADT, as well as weekly increases &amp; decreases in short value, short as multiple of ADT.</li>
<li>We highlight short interest changes in Rio Tinto, Computershare, NAB, Wisetech Global, South32.</li>
</ul>


We analyzed the changes in short interest of ASX Stocks as of Apr 12th (reported today) which has an aggregated short interest worth USD19.0bn.
We tabulate league table for top short by value and short as multiple of ADT, as well as weekly increases &amp; decreases in short value, short as multiple of ADT.
We highlight short interest changes in Rio Tinto, Computershare, NAB, Wisetech Global, South32.


ASX Short Interest Weekly (Apr 12th): Rio Tinto, Computershare, NAB, Wisetech Global, South32

Australia

South32 Limited operates as a diversified metals and mining company. The Company produces alumina, aluminum, coal, manganese, nickel, silver, lead, and zinc. South32 conducts business globally.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
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Dividend (Yield)	0.00

South32 Ltd (S32 AU)

Anglo American Rejects BHP's Increased and Final Offer

On 22 May, Anglo American rejected the last offer (0.8860) from BHP on execution risks, potential negative value impacts and additional approvals...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Quiddity Leaderboard ASX Jun 24: Intra-Review Replacement Surprise Possible

There is an important correction to the expectations presented in this insight. Please see the discussion point below for the details and the...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

ASX Short Interest Weekly (May 10th): BHP, ANZ, Seven, South32, NAB, Telstra, Woolworths

We analyzed ASX short interest report for the past week and highlight short interest changes in BHP, ANZ, Seven, South32, NAB, Telstra, Woolworths,...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

S&P/ASX Index Rebalance Preview: Potential Changes from Now to June

Performance has been mixed across the various indices but could start moving the right way as we near the end of the review period and there is...

Brian Freitas

ASX Short Interest Weekly (Apr 12th): Rio Tinto, Computershare, NAB, Wisetech Global, South32

We analyzed ASX short interest report for the past week and highlight short interest changes in Rio Tinto, Computershare, NAB, Wisetech Global,...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Anglo American Rejects BHP's Increased and Final Offer

On 22 May, Anglo American rejected the last offer (0.8860) from BHP on execution risks, potential negative value impacts and additional approvals...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Quiddity Leaderboard ASX Jun 24: Intra-Review Replacement Surprise Possible

There is an important correction to the expectations presented in this insight. Please see the discussion point below for the details and the...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

ASX Short Interest Weekly (May 10th): BHP, ANZ, Seven, South32, NAB, Telstra, Woolworths

We analyzed ASX short interest report for the past week and highlight short interest changes in BHP, ANZ, Seven, South32, NAB, Telstra, Woolworths,...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

S&P/​​​​​​​​​ASX Index Rebalance Preview: Potential Changes from Now to June

Performance has been mixed across the various indices but could start moving the right way as we near the end of the review period and there is...

Brian Freitas

ASX Short Interest Weekly (Apr 12th): Rio Tinto, Computershare, NAB, Wisetech Global, South32

We analyzed ASX short interest report for the past week and highlight short interest changes in Rio Tinto, Computershare, NAB, Wisetech Global,...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

S&P/ASX Index Rebalance Preview: Potential Changes from Now to June