Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech, Aequitas Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyzed the changes in short interest of ASX Stocks as of Jan 12th (reported today) which has an aggregated short interest worth USD18.6bn.</li>
<li>We tabulate league table for top short by value and short as multiple of ADT, as well as weekly increases &amp; decreases in short value, short as multiple of ADT.</li>
<li>We highlight short interest changes in Aristocrat Leisu, IDP Education, Fortescue, South32, Star Entertainme, BHP, CSL, Wesfarmers.</li>
</ul>


We analyzed the changes in short interest of ASX Stocks as of Jan 12th (reported today) which has an aggregated short interest worth USD18.6bn.
We tabulate league table for top short by value and short as multiple of ADT, as well as weekly increases &amp; decreases in short value, short as multiple of ADT.
We highlight short interest changes in Aristocrat Leisu, IDP Education, Fortescue, South32, Star Entertainme, BHP, CSL, Wesfarmers.


ASX Short Interest Weekly (Jan 12th): Aristocrat Leisu, IDP Education, Fortescue, South32, BHP, CSL

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>With over 80% of the review period complete, there could be 26 adds/deletes across the S&amp;P/ASX family of indices in March.</li>
<li>The largest flow will be on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/newmont-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:40416:1" rel="noopener">Newmont (NEM AU)</a> due to the potential S&amp;P/ASX 20 Index deletion and a large decrease in the number of shares held in Australia.</li>
<li>There will be 1.2-38 days of ADV to buy in the inclusions while the impact on the deletions will range between 1-21 days of ADV.</li>
</ul>


With over 80% of the review period complete, there could be 26 adds/deletes across the S&amp;P/ASX family of indices in March.
The largest flow will be on Newmont (NEM AU) due to the potential S&amp;P/ASX 20 Index deletion and a large decrease in the number of shares held in Australia.
There will be 1.2-38 days of ADV to buy in the inclusions while the impact on the deletions will range between 1-21 days of ADV.


S&P/​​​​​​​​​ASX Index Rebalance Preview: Lots of Changes; A$1bn to Sell in Newmont

<ul>
<li>There could be 3 changes for the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/s-p-asx-200" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22901:1" rel="noopener">S&amp;P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX)</a> in December. There are unlikely to be any changes for indices higher up the hierarchy.</li>
<li>Passive trackers will need to buy between 7-11 days of ADV in the inclusions while the impact on the deletions will be larger at between 11-23 days of ADV.</li>
<li>Short interest has decreased on the potential inclusions and increased on the potential deletions. There is significant pre-positioning on some of the stocks.</li>
</ul>


There could be 3 changes for the S&amp;P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX) in December. There are unlikely to be any changes for indices higher up the hierarchy.
Passive trackers will need to buy between 7-11 days of ADV in the inclusions while the impact on the deletions will be larger at between 11-23 days of ADV.
Short interest has decreased on the potential inclusions and increased on the potential deletions. There is significant pre-positioning on some of the stocks.


S&P/​​​​​​​​​ASX Index Rebalance Preview: Big Impact; A Week From Announcement

Metals, Ores, and Mining Firms, Mint Finance

Pranay Yadav

Metals, Ores, and Mining Firms

Deep Fundamental Analysis

Mint Finance

Mint Finance's investment research blends deep fundamental analysis with technical & quant insights. Investment strategies straddle across multiple asset classes with risk management embedded into every trade to deliver an outsized reward-to-risk ratio.

Mint Finance's research is centered around three key themes. First, energy transition and climate change. Second, artificial intelligence. Third, shifting world order with its impact across politics and monetary economics.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>South32 is an Australian metal and mining firm spun off from BHP in 2015. Unlike mining majors, South32 holds smaller but concentrated assets.</li>
<li>Aluminium operations is the firm’s primary revenue source followed by coking coal operations. Coking coal contributes to 32% of the underlying EBITDA.</li>
<li>With its share price having got battered, South32 stock is compellingly priced relative to MVR ETF paving way for a compelling long-short trade.</li>
</ul>


South32 is an Australian metal and mining firm spun off from BHP in 2015. Unlike mining majors, South32 holds smaller but concentrated assets.
Aluminium operations is the firm’s primary revenue source followed by coking coal operations. Coking coal contributes to 32% of the underlying EBITDA.
With its share price having got battered, South32 stock is compellingly priced relative to MVR ETF paving way for a compelling long-short trade.


Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Since being spun out from BHP in 2015, <strong><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/south32-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22654:1" rel="noopener">South32 Ltd (S32 AU)</a></strong> has doggedly addressed its vast asset portfolio. </li>
<li>This strategy has not been without issue, such as the US$1.3bn writedown in Hermosa base metals project (zinc, lead) earlier this year due to inflationary pressure from inputs (steel, cement).</li>
<li>Not unlike other major miners, commodities tethered to the energy transition form a key cornerstone of South32’s forward objective, potentially leading to coal asset divestment and further copper (lithium?) acquisitions. </li>
</ul>


Since being spun out from BHP in 2015, South32 Ltd (S32 AU) has doggedly addressed its vast asset portfolio. 
This strategy has not been without issue, such as the US$1.3bn writedown in Hermosa base metals project (zinc, lead) earlier this year due to inflationary pressure from inputs (steel, cement).
Not unlike other major miners, commodities tethered to the energy transition form a key cornerstone of South32’s forward objective, potentially leading to coal asset divestment and further copper (lithium?) acquisitions. 


Australia

South32 Limited operates as a diversified metals and mining company. The Company produces alumina, aluminum, coal, manganese, nickel, silver, lead, and zinc. South32 conducts business globally.

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South32 Ltd (S32 AU)

ASX Short Interest Weekly (Jan 12th): Aristocrat Leisu, IDP Education, Fortescue, South32, BHP, CSL

We analyzed ASX short interest report for the past week and highlight short interest changes in Aristocrat Leisu, IDP Education, Fortescue,...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

S&P/ASX Index Rebalance Preview: Lots of Changes; A$1bn to Sell in Newmont

CGC's privatisation could lead to an adhoc change in Feb. Then there could be 26 changes at the March rebalance. Newmont could be deleted from the...

Brian Freitas

S&P/ASX Index Rebalance Preview: Big Impact; A Week From Announcement

There could be 3 changes for the ASX200 in December. Impact on the adds/deletes varies from 7-23x ADV. Shorts have increased on the potential...

Brian Freitas

Have South32 Shares Bottomed Out?

Facilitating Energy Transition Strategy Along With Diversified Regional Exposure Makes South32 A Compelling Investment Proposition

Mint Finance

Reshaping South32's Low-Carbon Footprint

Currently trading bang in line with its average trailing metrics; and marginally up on its forward metrics. I'd probably tilt positive here, but...

David Blennerhassett

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52-week Range

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Dividend (Yield)

ASX Short Interest Weekly (Jan 12th): Aristocrat Leisu, IDP Education, Fortescue, South32, BHP, CSL

We analyzed ASX short interest report for the past week and highlight short interest changes in Aristocrat Leisu, IDP Education, Fortescue,...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

S&P/​​​​​​​​​ASX Index Rebalance Preview: Lots of Changes; A$1bn to Sell in Newmont

CGC's privatisation could lead to an adhoc change in Feb. Then there could be 26 changes at the March rebalance. Newmont could be deleted from the...

Brian Freitas

S&P/​​​​​​​​​ASX Index Rebalance Preview: Big Impact; A Week From Announcement

There could be 3 changes for the ASX200 in December. Impact on the adds/deletes varies from 7-23x ADV. Shorts have increased on the potential...

Brian Freitas

Have South32 Shares Bottomed Out?

Facilitating Energy Transition Strategy Along With Diversified Regional Exposure Makes South32 A Compelling Investment Proposition

Mint Finance

Reshaping South32's Low-Carbon Footprint

Currently trading bang in line with its average trailing metrics; and marginally up on its forward metrics. I'd probably tilt positive here, but...

David Blennerhassett

S&P/ASX Index Rebalance Preview: Lots of Changes; A$1bn to Sell in Newmont

S&P/ASX Index Rebalance Preview: Big Impact; A Week From Announcement