Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>We remain near-term bullish since our 4/22/25 Compass, and our intermediate-term outlook remains bullish as well (as of our 5/14/25 Compass), with Int’l Compass reports all echoing this sentiment.</li>
<li>Our bullish near-term outlook will remain in place as long as the 5+ month uptrend continues on ACWI-US. So far, the latest pullback is testing the uptrend -- buy/stay long.</li>
<li>We are buying the test of 7-month base support in Europe (EURO STOXX 50). China's Shanghai Composite points to a second chance breakout attempt above 1.5-month resistance -- buy/stay long</li>
</ul>


We remain near-term bullish since our 4/22/25 Compass, and our intermediate-term outlook remains bullish as well (as of our 5/14/25 Compass), with Int’l Compass reports all echoing this sentiment.
Our bullish near-term outlook will remain in place as long as the 5+ month uptrend continues on ACWI-US. So far, the latest pullback is testing the uptrend -- buy/stay long.
We are buying the test of 7-month base support in Europe (EURO STOXX 50). China's Shanghai Composite points to a second chance breakout attempt above 1.5-month resistance -- buy/stay long


5+ Month Uptrend Support Holding on MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US); China Second Chance Breakout Likely

<ul>
<li>We remain near-term bullish since our 4/22/25 Compass, and our intermediate-term outlook remains bullish as well (as of our 5/14/25 Compass), with Int’l Compass reports all echoing this sentiment.</li>
<li>Our bullish near-term outlook will remain in place as long as the 4+ month uptrend continues on ACWI-US. Remain aggressively long/continue to expect more upside into year-end and the early2026.</li>
<li>Europe's EURO STOXX 50 is breaking out from its 7-month base, above the crucial 5500 level, and RS is attempting to reverse its 5-month downtrend -- buy.</li>
</ul>


We remain near-term bullish since our 4/22/25 Compass, and our intermediate-term outlook remains bullish as well (as of our 5/14/25 Compass), with Int’l Compass reports all echoing this sentiment.
Our bullish near-term outlook will remain in place as long as the 4+ month uptrend continues on ACWI-US. Remain aggressively long/continue to expect more upside into year-end and the early2026.
Europe's EURO STOXX 50 is breaking out from its 7-month base, above the crucial 5500 level, and RS is attempting to reverse its 5-month downtrend -- buy.


Europe Breaking Out From 7-Month Base -- Buy; Remain Overweight Taiwan, China, Korea, and the U.S.

Equity, Bottom-up Analyst, Investics Research

Sameer Taneja

Equity, Bottom-up Analyst

Investics Research

It is important to note that the information provided by Investics Research is based on publicly available data and own knowledge, which has been gathered and analyzed from a variety of sources. While every effort has been made to ensure the accuracy and completeness of the information provided, it is not guaranteed to be free from errors or omissions. All forecasts and estimates are based on information that has been obtained from public sources that are considered to be reliable. The sources include but are not limited to, company announcements, exchange filings, presentations, etc. Investics does not guarantee the accuracy and completeness of the forecasts, estimates, and/or other information.

Equity Bottom-up Research

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Global copper-mine production declined in early 2026, driven by lower output and disruptions in key producing nations like Chile, Peru, and the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC)</li>
<li>Anticipation and fears of aggressive U.S. import tariffs on copper and related metal products prompted traders to aggressively divert and ship refined copper into U.S. (COMEX) warehouses</li>
<li>We expect stocks to now digest the new-normal 14,000 USD/ton copper price. Check out our recent initiation: <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/amerigo-resources-arg-cn-copper-factory-tailings-processor-that-sweeps-upside-to-shareholders" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:268297" rel="noopener">Amerigo Resources (ARG CN): Copper Factory Tailings Processor That Sweeps Upside To Shareholders</a> </li>
</ul>


Global copper-mine production declined in early 2026, driven by lower output and disruptions in key producing nations like Chile, Peru, and the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC)
Anticipation and fears of aggressive U.S. import tariffs on copper and related metal products prompted traders to aggressively divert and ship refined copper into U.S. (COMEX) warehouses
We expect stocks to now digest the new-normal 14,000 USD/ton copper price. Check out our recent initiation: Amerigo Resources (ARG CN): Copper Factory Tailings Processor That Sweeps Upside To Shareholders 


Copper: Yangshan Premiums Approaching Highs, Stocks Digesting 14,000 USD/Ton Copper Assumptions

<ul>
<li>We remain near-term bullish since our 4/22/25 Compass, and our intermediate-term outlook remains bullish as well (as of our 5/14/25 Compass).</li>
<li>Our near-term bullish outlook will remain in place long as the S&amp;P 500 (SPX), Nasdaq 100 (QQQ), and Russell 2000 (IWM) are above their 20-day MAs.</li>
<li>Short-Term SPX support is at 6028-6059 and the 20-day MA, with additional supports at 5804-5854 and 5700-5785. Russell 2000 (IWM) and S&amp;P Mid Caps (IJH) also breaking above key resistances</li>
</ul>


We remain near-term bullish since our 4/22/25 Compass, and our intermediate-term outlook remains bullish as well (as of our 5/14/25 Compass).
Our near-term bullish outlook will remain in place long as the S&amp;P 500 (SPX), Nasdaq 100 (QQQ), and Russell 2000 (IWM) are above their 20-day MAs.
Short-Term SPX support is at 6028-6059 and the 20-day MA, with additional supports at 5804-5854 and 5700-5785. Russell 2000 (IWM) and S&amp;P Mid Caps (IJH) also breaking above key resistances


Blue Sky Territory; Bullish Outlook Intact; Nasdaq 100 and S&P 500 Breaking to All-Time Highs

<ul>
<li>The single-asset tolling model at El Teniente provides copper price leverage without exploration, reserve replacement, or growth capex; the contract runs to 2037.</li>
<li>Debt-Free balance sheet and a rules-based capital return strategy sweep cash above a US$30m floor: US$41.7m returned in H1 2026 versus US$20.4m in FY25.</li>
<li>13.4x P/E, 6.4x EV/EBITDA, 8.6% yield; ROCE 75%; net cash US$50 mn, based on a copper price of USD 14,000/ton. </li>
</ul>


The single-asset tolling model at El Teniente provides copper price leverage without exploration, reserve replacement, or growth capex; the contract runs to 2037.
Debt-Free balance sheet and a rules-based capital return strategy sweep cash above a US$30m floor: US$41.7m returned in H1 2026 versus US$20.4m in FY25.
13.4x P/E, 6.4x EV/EBITDA, 8.6% yield; ROCE 75%; net cash US$50 mn, based on a copper price of USD 14,000/ton. 


Amerigo Resources (ARG CN): Copper Factory Tailings Processor That Sweeps Upside To Shareholders

United States

Southern Copper Corporation conducts mining operations in Peru and Mexico.  The Company owns and operates open pit mines and metallurgical complexes that produce copper, molybdenum, zinc, and precious metals.

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Southern Copper (SCCO US)

5+ Month Uptrend Support Holding on MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US); China Second Chance Breakout Likely

5+ Month Uptrend Support Holding on MSCI $ACWI; Bullish Outlook Intact; China Second Chance Breakout Likely on Shanghai Composite. Buying the test...

Vermilion Research

Europe Breaking Out From 7-Month Base -- Buy; Remain Overweight Taiwan, China, Korea, and the U.S.

Europe EURO $STOXX 50 Breaking Out From 7-Month Base -- Buy; Remain Overweight Taiwan $EWT, China $MCHI, Korea $EWY, and the U.S. $SPX; Bullish...

Vermilion Research

Copper: Yangshan Premiums Approaching Highs, Stocks Digesting 14,000 USD/Ton Copper Assumptions

With copper consolidating at 14,000 USD/ton, we provide rationale for the recent copper strength. Our recent initiation, Amerigo Resources (ARG...

Sameer Taneja

Blue Sky Territory; Bullish Outlook Intact; Nasdaq 100 and S&P 500 Breaking to All-Time Highs

Blue Sky Territory; Bullish Outlook Intact; $QQQ and $SPX Breaking to All-Time Highs; Russell 2000 $IWM and Mid Caps $IJH also breaking above...

Vermilion Research

Amerigo Resources (ARG CN): Copper Factory Tailings Processor That Sweeps Upside To Shareholders

Debt-free copper tolling business with no mining or reserve risk, 75% FY26E ROCE and a cash-sweep payout policy that passes copper upside straight...

Sameer Taneja

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