Global Commodities, Mint Finance

Srinidhi Raghavendra

Global Commodities

Deep Fundamental Analysis

Mint Finance

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Commodities

<ul>
<li>Bean prices have been oscillating on shifting trade war sentiments. Easing leads to rally followed by pull back in prices when tensions seemingly peak.</li>
<li>Present sentiment remains cautious amid policy uncertainty &amp; robust planting progress, with 84% of the U.S. soybean crop planted as of 1/Jun, above the five-year average of 80%.</li>
<li>Despite the recent pullback in futures, skew (Up Var minus Down Var) has reached a YTD high, signalling market expectations of a spike in bean prices.</li>
</ul>


Bean prices have been oscillating on shifting trade war sentiments. Easing leads to rally followed by pull back in prices when tensions seemingly peak.
Present sentiment remains cautious amid policy uncertainty &amp; robust planting progress, with 84% of the U.S. soybean crop planted as of 1/Jun, above the five-year average of 80%.
Despite the recent pullback in futures, skew (Up Var minus Down Var) has reached a YTD high, signalling market expectations of a spike in bean prices.


Bearishness Persist in Soybeans Despite Rebound Hopes

<ul>
<li>After falling to a 2025 low, Bean prices have rallied strongly to clock a nine-month high. Macro conditions augur well for the rally to be sustained. </li>
<li>Implied vols on bean options have dropped even as prices rise. Spike in skew points to reduced demand for downside risk hinting at upward price buoyancy.  </li>
<li>Technical charts paint a broadly bullish picture with potential for rally ahead remaining intact. However, the bullish momentum might take a breather in the near term.   </li>
</ul>


After falling to a 2025 low, Bean prices have rallied strongly to clock a nine-month high. Macro conditions augur well for the rally to be sustained. 
Implied vols on bean options have dropped even as prices rise. Spike in skew points to reduced demand for downside risk hinting at upward price buoyancy.  
Technical charts paint a broadly bullish picture with potential for rally ahead remaining intact. However, the bullish momentum might take a breather in the near term.   


Soybean Surge: Is the Momentum Ripe for More Gains?

<ul>
<li>Recent acreage report shows benign planting figures and solid ending stocks for Corn sending its prices lower. Wheat also declined on higher stocks, while Soybeans rebounded.</li>
<li>Wheat faces headwinds &amp; tailwinds. Fundamentals are dragged down by favorable weather in exporting countries &amp; imminent US harvest; Strong US demand &amp; weak EU forecast has supported prices.</li>
<li>Soybeans appear well supported from an unlikely ally in Trump. Import Duty tit-for-tat could see China slapping duty on Soy imports.</li>
</ul>


Recent acreage report shows benign planting figures and solid ending stocks for Corn sending its prices lower. Wheat also declined on higher stocks, while Soybeans rebounded.
Wheat faces headwinds &amp; tailwinds. Fundamentals are dragged down by favorable weather in exporting countries &amp; imminent US harvest; Strong US demand &amp; weak EU forecast has supported prices.
Soybeans appear well supported from an unlikely ally in Trump. Import Duty tit-for-tat could see China slapping duty on Soy imports.


[CB 27/2024] Wheat & Bean Up on Improving Demand as Corn Tumbles on Benign Planting & Solid Harvest

Independent Analyst

Niklas Olausson

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>The USDA surprised the market with a 5% lower-than-expected planted soybean area in 2023, with soybeans rallying 7%.  </li>
<li>The U.S. Midwest drought remains in focus. Dry areas are by far the greatest since 2002 and soybean crop ratings are at historic lows for this time of year. </li>
<li>With the budding El Niño, supply risk to edible oils in 2024 continues to rise. Reiterate the positive call on Plantations and the bullish CPO price forecast. </li>
</ul>


The USDA surprised the market with a 5% lower-than-expected planted soybean area in 2023, with soybeans rallying 7%.  
The U.S. Midwest drought remains in focus. Dry areas are by far the greatest since 2002 and soybean crop ratings are at historic lows for this time of year. 
With the budding El Niño, supply risk to edible oils in 2024 continues to rise. Reiterate the positive call on Plantations and the bullish CPO price forecast. 


Southeast Asia Plantations: U.S. Midwest Drought, the El Niño Bull Run Appetizer?

Data-Driven Commodity Research, The Commodity Report

The Commodity Report

Data-Driven Commodity Research

A unique newsletter about commodities and macro analysis in a weekly format.

<ul><li>Corn crop looks good but slightly worse than 2024</li><li>Spring Wheat is looking okayish, but conditions are worse than during the three previous years</li><li>Soybean conditions aren’t that visible yet, but analysts expect solid to good conditions at the moment</li></ul>

Corn crop looks good but slightly worse than 2024Spring Wheat is looking okayish, but conditions are worse than during the three previous yearsSoybean conditions aren’t that visible yet, but analysts expect solid to good conditions at the moment

Price Gauge
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Soybean Active Contract (S A COMDTY)

Bearishness Persist in Soybeans Despite Rebound Hopes

Bean prices fluctuate with trade war sentiments. Outlook remains cautious due to policy uncertainty and strong planting progress.

Mint Finance

Soybean Surge: Is the Momentum Ripe for More Gains?

Bean prices have surged to a 9-month high, supported by favorable macro conditions & reduced demand for downside risk. Technicals signal potential...

Mint Finance

[CB 27/2024] Wheat & Bean Up on Improving Demand as Corn Tumbles on Benign Planting & Solid Harvest

Corn prices down 3% last week. Wheat prices cropped up 1.65%. Soybean prices were up 1.79% on fears of trade war escalation.

Mint Finance

Southeast Asia Plantations: U.S. Midwest Drought, the El Niño Bull Run Appetizer?

The USDA surprised with a 5% lower planted soybean area in 2023, while risk to yields from drought remains elevated. Supply risk to edible oils is...

Niklas Olausson

Drought & Planting Update

Corn crop looks good but slightly worse than 2024. Spring Wheat is looking okayish, but conditions are worse than during the three previous years

The Commodity Report

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Bearishness Persist in Soybeans Despite Rebound Hopes

​Bean prices fluctuate with trade war sentiments. Outlook remains cautious due to policy uncertainty and strong planting progress.

Mint Finance

Soybean Surge: Is the Momentum Ripe for More Gains?

​Bean prices have surged to a 9-month high, supported by favorable macro conditions & reduced demand for downside risk. Technicals signal potential...

Mint Finance

[CB 27/2024] Wheat & Bean Up on Improving Demand as Corn Tumbles on Benign Planting & Solid Harvest

Corn prices down 3% last week. Wheat prices cropped up 1.65%. Soybean prices were up 1.79% on fears of trade war escalation.

Mint Finance

Southeast Asia Plantations: U.S. Midwest Drought, the El Niño Bull Run Appetizer?

The USDA surprised with a 5% lower planted soybean area in 2023, while risk to yields from drought remains elevated. Supply risk to edible oils is...

Niklas Olausson

Drought & Planting Update

Corn crop looks good but slightly worse than 2024. Spring Wheat is looking okayish, but conditions are worse than during the three previous years

The Commodity Report

Bean prices fluctuate with trade war sentiments. Outlook remains cautious due to policy uncertainty and strong planting progress.

Bean prices have surged to a 9-month high, supported by favorable macro conditions & reduced demand for downside risk. Technicals signal potential...