HK/China Equity Long-Short

Osbert Tang, CFA

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/space-exploration-technologies-corp-spacex" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:33284:1" rel="noopener">SpaceX (SPCX US)</a> has filed its S-1 prospectus, with the IPO targeting to be on 12 Jun. There are several Hong Kong and mainland Chinese listed companies that may benefit. </li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shanghai-top-numerical-control-technology-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:45697:1" rel="noopener">Shanghai Top Numerical Control (7688 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tongyu-communication-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:25352:1" rel="noopener">Tongyu Communication (002792 CH)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shenzhen-sunway-communicatin-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13458:1" rel="noopener">Shenzhen Sunway (300136 CH)</a>, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/chongqing-zaisheng-technology" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:25126:1" rel="noopener">Chongqing Zaisheng Technology (603601 CH)</a> are more direct.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/avichina-industry-technology-co-ltd-class-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16315:1" rel="noopener">AviChina Industry &amp; Technology (2357 HK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/apt-satellite-holdings-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12240:1" rel="noopener">APT Satellite (1045 HK)</a> may gain from the spillover effects of the SpaceX IPO.</li>
</ul>



SpaceX (SPCX US) has filed its S-1 prospectus, with the IPO targeting to be on 12 Jun. There are several Hong Kong and mainland Chinese listed companies that may benefit. 

Shanghai Top Numerical Control (7688 HK), Tongyu Communication (002792 CH), Shenzhen Sunway (300136 CH), and Chongqing Zaisheng Technology (603601 CH) are more direct.

AviChina Industry &amp; Technology (2357 HK) and APT Satellite (1045 HK) may gain from the spillover effects of the SpaceX IPO.


China Strategy: Some Main Beneficiaries of SpaceX Listing

Equity Long-Short

Mo Aziz

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Three businesses, one ticker: Starlink is the only profitable division worth ~12% of market cap; Launch has lost money 23/24 years; "AI" is ~US$26bn of GPU rental from two tenants.</li>
<li>SOTP: Connectivity US$252bn, Space US$40bn, AI US$130bn, plus ~US$50bn net cash = US$472bn (US$36/share) vs. US$2,046bn market cap. Probability-weighted across bear/base/bull: US$42.</li>
<li>Initiate SELL, TP US$42 (−73%): the float is the fundamental. A ~4% free float meets forced index buying now; staggered lockups expand supply ~10x by 8 December.</li>
</ul>


Three businesses, one ticker: Starlink is the only profitable division worth ~12% of market cap; Launch has lost money 23/24 years; "AI" is ~US$26bn of GPU rental from two tenants.
SOTP: Connectivity US$252bn, Space US$40bn, AI US$130bn, plus ~US$50bn net cash = US$472bn (US$36/share) vs. US$2,046bn market cap. Probability-weighted across bear/base/bull: US$42.
Initiate SELL, TP US$42 (−73%): the float is the fundamental. A ~4% free float meets forced index buying now; staggered lockups expand supply ~10x by 8 December.


Space Exploration Technologies (SPCX US): - Three Companies, One Ticker, Zero Margin of Safety

Index Rebalance and Special Situations Coverage, Quiddity Advisors

Anjana Amarasuriya

Index Rebalance and Special Situations Coverage

Quiddity Advisors

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>The Nasdaq 100 index tracks the 100 largest names listed on the Nasdaq Stock Exchange.</li>
<li>We expect no changes for the September 2026 index rebal event, though SpaceX's free-float increase should still drive roughly US$13bn of one-way flow.</li>
<li>We expect three ADDs and four DELs at the December 2026 annual reconstitution, with DELs necessarily exceeding ADDs by one to bring member count back to 100.</li>
</ul>


The Nasdaq 100 index tracks the 100 largest names listed on the Nasdaq Stock Exchange.
We expect no changes for the September 2026 index rebal event, though SpaceX's free-float increase should still drive roughly US$13bn of one-way flow.
We expect three ADDs and four DELs at the December 2026 annual reconstitution, with DELs necessarily exceeding ADDs by one to bring member count back to 100.


Quiddity Leaderboard Nasdaq100 Sep26 Rebal: Still No Changes in September

Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs, Douglas Research Advisory

Douglas Kim

Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs

Douglas Research Advisory

Event-Driven

Korea Investment Holdings Co, Ltd. / Event-Driven

Korea Investment Holdings Co, Ltd. (071050 KS)

<ul>
<li>Korea Investment Partners (KIP) has made a home run investment in Anthropic. Korea Investment Holdings Co, Ltd. (071050 KS) owns a 100% stake in Korea Investment Partners</li>
<li>Assuming a 50% share dilution from its original investment in August 2024 ($10 million), KIP's stake in Anthropic would reach $555 million (if Anthropic is valued at $2 trillion).</li>
<li>Korea Investment Holdings Co, Ltd. (071050 KS) has a market cap of 10.4 trillion won, so this would be 7.4% of its market cap. </li>
</ul>


Korea Investment Partners (KIP) has made a home run investment in Anthropic. Korea Investment Holdings Co, Ltd. (071050 KS) owns a 100% stake in Korea Investment Partners
Assuming a 50% share dilution from its original investment in August 2024 ($10 million), KIP's stake in Anthropic would reach $555 million (if Anthropic is valued at $2 trillion).
Korea Investment Holdings Co, Ltd. (071050 KS) has a market cap of 10.4 trillion won, so this would be 7.4% of its market cap. 


Korea Investment Partners - A Home Run Investment in Anthropic

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/alibaba-group-holding-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28434:1" rel="noopener">Alibaba (9988 HK)</a>  is looking to raise around US$10bn to fund its AI spending.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/alibaba-group-holding-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:787:1" rel="noopener">Alibaba (BABA US)</a> recently reported its 1H26 results, with elevated AI capex and negative free cash flows.</li>
<li>In this note, we will talk about the placement and run the deal through our ECM framework.</li>
</ul>



Alibaba (9988 HK)  is looking to raise around US$10bn to fund its AI spending.

Alibaba (BABA US) recently reported its 1H26 results, with elevated AI capex and negative free cash flows.
In this note, we will talk about the placement and run the deal through our ECM framework.


Aequitas: Alibaba Placement - US$10bn Raising, Relatively Ok Size, Index Flows

United States

Space Exploration Technologies Corp., doing business as SpaceX, operates as an aerospace manufacturer and space transportation services company. The Company designs and manufactures rockets, human spaceflight, and global satellite internet services. SpaceX serves customers worldwide.

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SpaceX (SPCX US)

China Strategy: Some Main Beneficiaries of SpaceX Listing

SpaceX filed its IPO prospectus, benefiting HK and China-listed companies like Shanghai Top Numerical Control, Tongyu, Shenzhen Sunway, and...

Osbert Tang, CFA

Space Exploration Technologies (SPCX US): - Three Companies, One Ticker, Zero Margin of Safety

One profitable telecom, one loss-making rocket mission, and a GPU rental dressed as AI — worth US$472bn, priced at US$2.05tn on a 4% float that...

Mo Aziz

Quiddity Leaderboard Nasdaq100 Sep26 Rebal: Still No Changes in September

Paramount Skydance (PSKY US) will move its listing to the NYSE on 6 October 2026, and following its 21 September settlement, its acquisition of WBD...

Anjana Amarasuriya

Korea Investment Partners - A Home Run Investment in Anthropic

Korea Investment Partners (KIP) has made a home run investment in Anthropic. Korea Investment Holdings Co, Ltd. (071050 KS) owns a 100% stake in...

Douglas Kim

Aequitas: Alibaba Placement - US$10bn Raising, Relatively Ok Size, Index Flows

Alibaba (9988 HK) is looking to raise around US$10bn to fund its AI spending. In this note, we talk about the deal dynamics.

Sumeet Singh

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China Strategy: Some Main Beneficiaries of SpaceX Listing

​SpaceX filed its IPO prospectus, benefiting HK and China-listed companies like Shanghai Top Numerical Control, Tongyu, Shenzhen Sunway, and...

Osbert Tang, CFA

Space Exploration Technologies (SPCX US): - Three Companies, One Ticker, Zero Margin of Safety

One profitable telecom, one loss-making rocket mission, and a GPU rental dressed as AI — worth US$472bn, priced at US$2.05tn on a 4% float that...

Mo Aziz

Quiddity Leaderboard Nasdaq100 Sep26 Rebal: Still No Changes in September

Paramount Skydance (PSKY US) will move its listing to the NYSE on 6 October 2026, and following its 21 September settlement, its acquisition of WBD...

Anjana Amarasuriya

Korea Investment Partners - A Home Run Investment in Anthropic

Korea Investment Partners (KIP) has made a home run investment in Anthropic. Korea Investment Holdings Co, Ltd. (071050 KS) owns a 100% stake in...

Douglas Kim

Aequitas: Alibaba Placement - US$10bn Raising, Relatively Ok Size, Index Flows

Alibaba (9988 HK) is looking to raise around US$10bn to fund its AI spending. In this note, we talk about the deal dynamics.

Sumeet Singh

SpaceX filed its IPO prospectus, benefiting HK and China-listed companies like Shanghai Top Numerical Control, Tongyu, Shenzhen Sunway, and...