Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>We remain bullish (as of 4/21/26) on the SPX, Nasdaq 100 (QQQ), and Russell 2000 (IWM), and we recently recommended buying the pullback in our June 9 U.S. Macro Vision</li>
<li>As discussed June 9, we continue to expect roughly one pullback per month to test the 20-day MA on SPX, QQQ, IWM, and that was all the recent pullback was.</li>
<li>While price dipped below the 20-day MAs, the decisive reclaim of the 20-dayMAs late last week was exactly what we discussed to look for to confirm a brief, buyable pullback.</li>
</ul>


We remain bullish (as of 4/21/26) on the SPX, Nasdaq 100 (QQQ), and Russell 2000 (IWM), and we recently recommended buying the pullback in our June 9 U.S. Macro Vision
As discussed June 9, we continue to expect roughly one pullback per month to test the 20-day MA on SPX, QQQ, IWM, and that was all the recent pullback was.
While price dipped below the 20-day MAs, the decisive reclaim of the 20-dayMAs late last week was exactly what we discussed to look for to confirm a brief, buyable pullback.


Buy Software Stocks; Bullish Outlook Intact; Buy Gold and Silver

Equity/Index & Cross Asset Volatility Specialist, Cameron Design

Jay Cameron

Equity/Index & Cross Asset Volatility Specialist

Cameron Design

We specialize in financial products and volatility. Our strategies balance speed, data, and risk control to capture opportunities across global markets. Our research leverages AI and data analytics to continuously refine our algorithms and adapt to evolving market dynamics.

Commodities

<ul>
<li>Signs are there that a US-Iran negotiations have a chance to progress towards a resolution of the current conflict.  This has allowed Brent to maintain $86 levels ending this week.</li>
<li>Gold and silver have been waiting for an end to risk aversion in commodities, noting that COMEX futures positions are down both for long and short positions. </li>
<li>This insight dives into various factors and alternative metrics that could hint the direction of the precious metals markets over the next few months.</li>
</ul>


Signs are there that a US-Iran negotiations have a chance to progress towards a resolution of the current conflict.  This has allowed Brent to maintain $86 levels ending this week.
Gold and silver have been waiting for an end to risk aversion in commodities, noting that COMEX futures positions are down both for long and short positions. 
This insight dives into various factors and alternative metrics that could hint the direction of the precious metals markets over the next few months.


The Ceasefire Catalyst: COMEX Positioning, Vault Flows, and the Next Precious Metals Rally

<ul>
<li>The recent breakdown of two-year support for SPDR Gold Shares ETF is driven by the Strait of Hormuz shutdown, escalating oil prices, and resultant global inflation.</li>
<li>Retail consumer interest in precious metals has dropped, confirmed by the lowest US Consumer Sentiment Index reading since 1952, showing widespread financial worry.</li>
<li>Weak summer seasonality in gold futures, particularly in June and July, presents a current opportunity to prepare for price movement later this year.</li>
</ul>


The recent breakdown of two-year support for SPDR Gold Shares ETF is driven by the Strait of Hormuz shutdown, escalating oil prices, and resultant global inflation.
Retail consumer interest in precious metals has dropped, confirmed by the lowest US Consumer Sentiment Index reading since 1952, showing widespread financial worry.
Weak summer seasonality in gold futures, particularly in June and July, presents a current opportunity to prepare for price movement later this year.


Gold: SPDR Gold K-Score Divergence and JUN/JUL Trading Strategy Amidst the Hormuz Inflation Shock

Equity & Credit Research

Duncan Chan

<ul>
<li>Gold has pulled back from record highs near US$5,594/oz in January 2026, but supply remains inelastic and structural demand persists, suggesting downside is constrained.</li>
<li>Short-Term price moves are shaped by real yields, the US dollar and positioning. Higher real yields raise the opportunity cost of holding gold and limit near-term upside.</li>
<li>Official sector buying remains positive and absorbs supply, providing a structural floor, but its pace is uneven and insufficient to offset macro-driven outflows in the short term.</li>
</ul>


Gold has pulled back from record highs near US$5,594/oz in January 2026, but supply remains inelastic and structural demand persists, suggesting downside is constrained.
Short-Term price moves are shaped by real yields, the US dollar and positioning. Higher real yields raise the opportunity cost of holding gold and limit near-term upside.
Official sector buying remains positive and absorbs supply, providing a structural floor, but its pace is uneven and insufficient to offset macro-driven outflows in the short term.


Gold: The Floor Is Clear, Weakness Is an Opportunity

<ul>
<li>We are officially downgrading our outlook to bearish with the S&amp;P 500 (SPX) violating major support at 6480-6520, NQ violating 24,000, and Russell 2000 (IWM) breaking below crucial $245 support.</li>
<li>This comes after downgrading our outlook to neutral in our 3/3/26 Compass.</li>
<li>We view this latest rally as a selling opportunity at resistance at 6480-6520 and the 200-day MA</li>
</ul>


We are officially downgrading our outlook to bearish with the S&amp;P 500 (SPX) violating major support at 6480-6520, NQ violating 24,000, and Russell 2000 (IWM) breaking below crucial $245 support.
This comes after downgrading our outlook to neutral in our 3/3/26 Compass.
We view this latest rally as a selling opportunity at resistance at 6480-6520 and the 200-day MA


Downgrading Outlook to Bearish; Stay Defensive; $SPX Rally a Selling Opportunity?

United States

SPDR Gold Shares is an investment fund incorporated in the USA.  The investment objective of the Trust is for the Shares to reflect the performance of the price of gold bullion, less the Trust's expenses. The Trust holds gold and is expected from time to time to issue Baskets in exchange for deposits of gold and to distribute gold in connection with redemptions of Baskets.

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SPDR Gold Shares (GLD US)

Buy Software Stocks; Bullish Outlook Intact; Buy Gold and Silver

Buy Software Stocks $RBRK $FROG; Bullish Outlook Intact $SPX $QQQ $IWM; Buy Gold and Silver $GLD $SLV $GDX $SIL. Normal Pullback is Over

Vermilion Research

The Ceasefire Catalyst: COMEX Positioning, Vault Flows, and the Next Precious Metals Rally

Precious metals seeing risk aversion since start of the Middle East conflict this year. We look for clues as to what's next in negotiations,...

Jay Cameron

Gold: SPDR Gold K-Score Divergence and JUN/JUL Trading Strategy Amidst the Hormuz Inflation Shock

Inflation fears due to the Strait of Hormuz shutdown and rising oil prices have led to a breakdown in gold ETF momentum support, yet as consumers...

Jay Cameron

Gold: The Floor Is Clear, Weakness Is an Opportunity

Gold has a structural floor from constrained supply and central bank demand, but real yields cap upside, making weakness a more attractive entry...

Duncan Chan

Downgrading Outlook to Bearish; Stay Defensive; $SPX Rally a Selling Opportunity?

Downgrading Outlook to Bearish; Stay Defensive; Latest $SPX Rally Likely to Roll Over Here at 6480-6520 or 200-day MA resistance

Vermilion Research

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Buy Software Stocks; Bullish Outlook Intact; Buy Gold and Silver

Buy Software Stocks $RBRK $FROG; Bullish Outlook Intact $SPX $QQQ $IWM; Buy Gold and Silver $GLD $SLV $GDX $SIL. Normal Pullback is Over

Vermilion Research

The Ceasefire Catalyst: COMEX Positioning, Vault Flows, and the Next Precious Metals Rally

Precious metals seeing risk aversion since start of the Middle East conflict this year. We look for clues as to what's next in negotiations,...

Jay Cameron

Gold: SPDR Gold K-Score Divergence and JUN/JUL Trading Strategy Amidst the Hormuz Inflation Shock

​Inflation fears due to the Strait of Hormuz shutdown and rising oil prices have led to a breakdown in gold ETF momentum support, yet as consumers...

Jay Cameron

Gold: The Floor Is Clear, Weakness Is an Opportunity

Gold has a structural floor from constrained supply and central bank demand, but real yields cap upside, making weakness a more attractive entry...

Duncan Chan

Downgrading Outlook to Bearish; Stay Defensive; $SPX Rally a Selling Opportunity?

Downgrading Outlook to Bearish; Stay Defensive; Latest $SPX Rally Likely to Roll Over Here at 6480-6520 or 200-day MA resistance

Vermilion Research

Inflation fears due to the Strait of Hormuz shutdown and rising oil prices have led to a breakdown in gold ETF momentum support, yet as consumers...