Equity Derivatives and Volatility Specialist, Clifton Derivatives

John Ley

Equity Derivatives and Volatility Specialist

Clifton Derivatives

Independent derivative and volatility research firm focusing on events/catalysts, earnings, relative value and cross asset volatility strategies.

Equity Derivatives

Korea Stock Exchange KOSPI 200 / Equity Derivatives

<ul>
<li>Kospi’s rally has extended seven months and now shows signs of fatigue, trading with speculative assets and now sharply diverging.</li>
<li>Implied volatility is elevated, with short-term measures above the 90th percentile on multiple lookbacks.</li>
<li>We recommend an option trade and hedge given the current setup.</li>
</ul>


Kospi’s rally has extended seven months and now shows signs of fatigue, trading with speculative assets and now sharply diverging.
Implied volatility is elevated, with short-term measures above the 90th percentile on multiple lookbacks.
We recommend an option trade and hedge given the current setup.


Kospi: Rising Volatility and Early Warnings From a Seven-Month Surge

Cross-Asset Strategist & Quantitative Analyst, Pennock Idea Hub

Cam Hui

Cross-Asset Strategist & Quantitative Analyst

Pennock Idea Hub

We are creators of independent equity research. The Pennock Idea Hub team are veterans of the investment industry. Much of our team has spent their careers at Merrill Lynch, Deutsche Bank, RBC Capital Markets and Wood Gundy. We have taken every aspect of research back to the studs and returned to first principles. The Pennock Idea Hub marries the interests of the sell and buy side. 

We offer the best research for institutional investors by:

-Only publishing research from veteran analysts
-Eliminate the inherent conflicts of the traditional sell and buy side relationship
-Ensure our team is always accessible; collaboration with clients nurtures our collective success

Cross-Asset & Quantitative Research

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>We offer a plausible scenario that explains the recent surge and correction in gold. </li>
<li>The market misinterpreted the “Liberation Day” USD decline as a “Sell America” trade instead of a “Hedge America” trade and panicked out of USD and rushed into gold.</li>
<li>We expect a bottom in gold in Q4 or Q1 as the new Fed Chair pivots monetary policy in a more expansionary manner.</li>
</ul>


We offer a plausible scenario that explains the recent surge and correction in gold. 
The market misinterpreted the “Liberation Day” USD decline as a “Sell America” trade instead of a “Hedge America” trade and panicked out of USD and rushed into gold.
We expect a bottom in gold in Q4 or Q1 as the new Fed Chair pivots monetary policy in a more expansionary manner.


Asia L/S Equity PM/Macro/Thematic Idea Generation

Rikki Malik

Commodities

<ul>
<li>A review of recent events/data impacting our investment themes and outlook</li>
<li>Uranium takes centre stage, while precious metals remain in a corrective phase</li>
<li>Xi and Trump finally have their sit-down - important details behind the headlines</li>
</ul>


A review of recent events/data impacting our investment themes and outlook
Uranium takes centre stage, while precious metals remain in a corrective phase
Xi and Trump finally have their sit-down - important details behind the headlines


Overview#39 – Uranium’s Surge, Gold’s Lull, and Some Geopolitics in Between

<ul>
<li>We have been bull bulls, but point and figure charts of gold and gold miners show that they are either very near or have outrun their measured price objectives.</li>
<li>Tactically, the contrarian trade would be to sell gold and buy bonds.</li>
<li>However, a cycle analysis leads us to conclude that the market is undergoing a shift to a hard asset price leadership cycle.</li>
</ul>


We have been bull bulls, but point and figure charts of gold and gold miners show that they are either very near or have outrun their measured price objectives.
Tactically, the contrarian trade would be to sell gold and buy bonds.
However, a cycle analysis leads us to conclude that the market is undergoing a shift to a hard asset price leadership cycle.


<ul>
<li>Gold’s latest surge shows rising implied volatility but little sign of market stress, suggesting limited parallels with the explosive 1980 bull market.</li>
<li>Tuesday’s correction was the largest selloff in 12 years and marked the end of a series of successively larger positive moves.   </li>
<li>Rising implied vols and strong Call demand reveal active trading but not the manic levels typically seen near a major blowoff.</li>
</ul>


Gold’s latest surge shows rising implied volatility but little sign of market stress, suggesting limited parallels with the explosive 1980 bull market.
Tuesday’s correction was the largest selloff in 12 years and marked the end of a series of successively larger positive moves.   
Rising implied vols and strong Call demand reveal active trading but not the manic levels typically seen near a major blowoff.


Gold Part 2: Implied Volatility Dynamics Offer Insight into the Tone of This Bull Market

United States

SPDR Gold Shares is an investment fund incorporated in the USA.  The investment objective of the Trust is for the Shares to reflect the performance of the price of gold bullion, less the Trust's expenses. The Trust holds gold and is expected from time to time to issue Baskets in exchange for deposits of gold and to distribute gold in connection with redemptions of Baskets.

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SPDR Gold Shares (GLD US)

Kospi: Rising Volatility and Early Warnings From a Seven-Month Surge

Kospi’s seven-month rally is showing strain, with volatility rising and speculative behavior resembling patterns seen near prior peaks. A trade and...

John Ley

Making Sense of the Gold Price Retreat

The recent surge and correction in gold was due to a misinterpretation of the USD decline, leading to panic buying and a shift to gold. Expect a...

Cam Hui

Overview#39 – Uranium’s Surge, Gold’s Lull, and Some Geopolitics in Between

A review of recent events/data impacting our investment themes and outlook. We look at the uranium sector and the implications of the Xi-Trump...

Rikki Malik

Ready for the Contrarian Gold Trade?

We have been bull bulls, but point and figure charts show that gold is very near its measured price objective. Tactically, the contrarian trade...

Cam Hui

Gold Part 2: Implied Volatility Dynamics Offer Insight into the Tone of This Bull Market

Gold's recent surge shows increased implied volatility without signs of market stress, indicating limited similarities to the 1980 bull market.

John Ley

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Kospi: Rising Volatility and Early Warnings From a Seven-Month Surge

Kospi’s seven-month rally is showing strain, with volatility rising and speculative behavior resembling patterns seen near prior peaks. A trade and...

John Ley

Making Sense of the Gold Price Retreat

​The recent surge and correction in gold was due to a misinterpretation of the USD decline, leading to panic buying and a shift to gold. Expect a...

Cam Hui

Overview#39 – Uranium’s Surge, Gold’s Lull, and Some Geopolitics in Between

A review of recent events/data impacting our investment themes and outlook. We look at the uranium sector and the implications of the Xi-Trump...

Rikki Malik

Ready for the Contrarian Gold Trade?

We have been bull bulls, but point and figure charts show that gold is very near its measured price objective. Tactically, the contrarian trade...

Cam Hui

Gold Part 2: Implied Volatility Dynamics Offer Insight into the Tone of This Bull Market

​Gold's recent surge shows increased implied volatility without signs of market stress, indicating limited similarities to the 1980 bull market.

John Ley

The recent surge and correction in gold was due to a misinterpretation of the USD decline, leading to panic buying and a shift to gold. Expect a...

Gold's recent surge shows increased implied volatility without signs of market stress, indicating limited similarities to the 1980 bull market.