Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

Financial Select Sector SPDR F / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>We will stay near-term bullish as long as crucial support levels of 6780-6824 on SPX and $255-$257 on IWM continue to hold. With that said, we continue to see deterioration...</li>
<li>...in market dynamics that has us concerned of a deeper pullback, potentially to 6720-6776, 6690, or 6480-6520 on SPX, but 6780-6824 support would need to break first</li>
<li>Financials (XLF) and Discretionary (XLY) are violating crucial price and RS supports, and we are downgrading both Sectors to underweight</li>
</ul>


We will stay near-term bullish as long as crucial support levels of 6780-6824 on SPX and $255-$257 on IWM continue to hold. With that said, we continue to see deterioration...
...in market dynamics that has us concerned of a deeper pullback, potentially to 6720-6776, 6690, or 6480-6520 on SPX, but 6780-6824 support would need to break first
Financials (XLF) and Discretionary (XLY) are violating crucial price and RS supports, and we are downgrading both Sectors to underweight


Defensives Still Leading; Deeper Pullback?; Downgrading Financials and Discretionary to Underweight

Global Commodities, Mint Finance

Srinidhi Raghavendra

Global Commodities

Deep Fundamental Analysis

Mint Finance

Mint Finance's investment research blends deep fundamental analysis with technical & quant insights. Investment strategies straddle across multiple asset classes with risk management embedded into every trade to deliver an outsized reward-to-risk ratio.

Mint Finance's research is centered around three key themes. First, energy transition and climate change. Second, artificial intelligence. Third, shifting world order with its impact across politics and monetary economics.

Commodities

<ul>
<li>
Market Crash and Volatility: January 2026 saw record gains of 17% despite a massive 30% Friday meltdown that wiped out investors &amp; much of their gains last month.</li>
<li>
Smart Money Positioning: Managed Money aggressively slashed longs and ramped up shorts, correctly anticipating a correction while retail sentiment remained superficially bullish.</li>
<li>
 Bearish Rotation: Extreme 122+ IVs on CVol and massive change in put-to-call ratios signal near-term weakness as investors rotate from silver into more stable gold ETFs.</li>
</ul>



Market Crash and Volatility: January 2026 saw record gains of 17% despite a massive 30% Friday meltdown that wiped out investors &amp; much of their gains last month.

Smart Money Positioning: Managed Money aggressively slashed longs and ramped up shorts, correctly anticipating a correction while retail sentiment remained superficially bullish.

 Bearish Rotation: Extreme 122+ IVs on CVol and massive change in put-to-call ratios signal near-term weakness as investors rotate from silver into more stable gold ETFs.


What Next After a Massive Melt Down in Silver?

<ul>
<li>Average daily price ranges in 2026 are 11x higher than the ten-year average, shattering all previous records.</li>
<li>Massive 40-point positive skew reveals that traders are aggressively pricing in a moonshot toward $200/oz.</li>
<li>Despite the hype, put activity is building at 8x the rate of calls over the last ten days shows that smart money is securing protection below $100/oz.</li>
</ul>


Average daily price ranges in 2026 are 11x higher than the ten-year average, shattering all previous records.
Massive 40-point positive skew reveals that traders are aggressively pricing in a moonshot toward $200/oz.
Despite the hype, put activity is building at 8x the rate of calls over the last ten days shows that smart money is securing protection below $100/oz.


Parabolic Surge in Silver Price and Volatility Signals Sharp Turns Ahead

<ul>
<li>Rules based world order is being upended at an unprecedented pace. Decades of global rules of interaction are being rewritten.</li>
<li>In times like these, investors obviously flock to haven assets seeking protection. Gold &amp; Silver prices are a true reflection of investors seeking safety against multi-dimensional risks.</li>
<li>Passive, mechanical, &amp; price-insensitive index re-balancing will likely create near term price pull-back but 2026 looks clearly bullish for precious metals. How much higher is another story?</li>
</ul>


Rules based world order is being upended at an unprecedented pace. Decades of global rules of interaction are being rewritten.
In times like these, investors obviously flock to haven assets seeking protection. Gold &amp; Silver prices are a true reflection of investors seeking safety against multi-dimensional risks.
Passive, mechanical, &amp; price-insensitive index re-balancing will likely create near term price pull-back but 2026 looks clearly bullish for precious metals. How much higher is another story?


Intensifying Geopolitics Collides With Annual Passive Gold & Silver Rebalancing Flows

Asia L/S Equity PM/Macro/Thematic Idea Generation

Rikki Malik

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>A review of recent events and data impacting our investment themes and outlook</li>
<li>Tensions ratchet up between China and Japan over Taiwan comments</li>
<li>Signs of a turning point in the Chinese macro environment?</li>
</ul>


A review of recent events and data impacting our investment themes and outlook
Tensions ratchet up between China and Japan over Taiwan comments
Signs of a turning point in the Chinese macro environment?


Overview #45 - Sanctions, Metals, and Mergers

United States

SPDR Gold Shares is an investment fund incorporated in the USA.  The investment objective of the Trust is for the Shares to reflect the performance of the price of gold bullion, less the Trust's expenses. The Trust holds gold and is expected from time to time to issue Baskets in exchange for deposits of gold and to distribute gold in connection with redemptions of Baskets.

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SPDR Gold Shares (GLD US)

Defensives Still Leading; Deeper Pullback?; Downgrading Financials and Discretionary to Underweight

Defensives Still Leading; Deeper Pullback Coming?; Downgrading Financials $XLF and Discretionary $XLY $XRT to Underweight. Crucial support levels...

Vermilion Research

What Next After a Massive Melt Down in Silver?

Does silver massive crash signal a violent regime shift? With record IV and puts outnumbering calls by 2.8x, smart money is fleeing Silver....

Mint Finance

Parabolic Surge in Silver Price and Volatility Signals Sharp Turns Ahead

Silver's parabolic run hits a record price, IV, historical vol as $900B intraday wipeout signals extreme danger. With 8x more puts than calls,...

Mint Finance

Intensifying Geopolitics Collides With Annual Passive Gold & Silver Rebalancing Flows

In some weeks, decades happen. This last week was one. Geopolitics remains front-and-centre. Index rebalancing headwinds are temporary. Expect...

Mint Finance

Overview #45 - Sanctions, Metals, and Mergers

A review of recent events/data impacting our investment themes and outlook. All clear ahead for many of our investment themes

Rikki Malik

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52-week Range

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