Cross-Asset Strategist & Quantitative Analyst, Pennock Idea Hub

Cam Hui

Cross-Asset Strategist & Quantitative Analyst

Pennock Idea Hub

We are creators of independent equity research. The Pennock Idea Hub team are veterans of the investment industry. Much of our team has spent their careers at Merrill Lynch, Deutsche Bank, RBC Capital Markets and Wood Gundy. We have taken every aspect of research back to the studs and returned to first principles. The Pennock Idea Hub marries the interests of the sell and buy side. 

We offer the best research for institutional investors by:

-Only publishing research from veteran analysts
-Eliminate the inherent conflicts of the traditional sell and buy side relationship
-Ensure our team is always accessible; collaboration with clients nurtures our collective success

Cross-Asset & Quantitative Research

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>We wrote a week ago that investment-oriented accounts should turn cautious on the stock market, but traders shouldn’t be ready to turn bearish just yet.</li>
<li>The sell signal has arrived and the tone of the stock market is turning decidedly bearish.</li>
<li>Technical internals are deteriorating and our base-case scenario calls for a 5–10% pullback. A downdraft of 20% represents an outlier case but would need a major catalyst.</li>
</ul>


We wrote a week ago that investment-oriented accounts should turn cautious on the stock market, but traders shouldn’t be ready to turn bearish just yet.
The sell signal has arrived and the tone of the stock market is turning decidedly bearish.
Technical internals are deteriorating and our base-case scenario calls for a 5–10% pullback. A downdraft of 20% represents an outlier case but would need a major catalyst.


<ul>
<li>Inflation is running hot. As a consequence, the Fed made its hawkish pivot and signaled that it is on pace to end its QE program by March 2022.</li>
<li>FANG+ stocks are the new defensive positioning under such a scenario. In a growth-starved world, investors will bid up the prices of cash generative growth companies.</li>
<li>The expected large-cap growth leadership should begin to fade when inflation pressures start to abate in the latter part of 2022.</li>
</ul>


Inflation is running hot. As a consequence, the Fed made its hawkish pivot and signaled that it is on pace to end its QE program by March 2022.
FANG+ stocks are the new defensive positioning under such a scenario. In a growth-starved world, investors will bid up the prices of cash generative growth companies.
The expected large-cap growth leadership should begin to fade when inflation pressures start to abate in the latter part of 2022.


<ul>
<li>Don’t get overly complacent about the party that the bulls are throwing. Sufficient warning signs are appearing that it’s time to edge toward the exit.</li>
<li>Investment-Oriented accounts should begin to de-risk their portfolios by reducing their equity weights and lowering the beta of their equity portfolios.</li>
<li>Short-Term traders may want to stay at the bulls’ party a little longer and wait for a sell signal to turn bearish.</li>
</ul>


Don’t get overly complacent about the party that the bulls are throwing. Sufficient warning signs are appearing that it’s time to edge toward the exit.
Investment-Oriented accounts should begin to de-risk their portfolios by reducing their equity weights and lowering the beta of their equity portfolios.
Short-Term traders may want to stay at the bulls’ party a little longer and wait for a sell signal to turn bearish.


<ul>
<li>The S&amp;P 500 is forming an inverse head &amp; shoulders pattern with a measured objective of 4290, but H&amp;S formations are incomplete until the neckline breaks. </li>
<li>The bull case consists mainly of oversold conditions and excessively bearish sentiment.</li>
<li>The bear case consists mainly of poor market internals and breadth deterioration.</li>
</ul>


The S&amp;P 500 is forming an inverse head &amp; shoulders pattern with a measured objective of 4290, but H&amp;S formations are incomplete until the neckline breaks. 
The bull case consists mainly of oversold conditions and excessively bearish sentiment.
The bear case consists mainly of poor market internals and breadth deterioration.


<ul>
<li>The U.S. stock market is oversold and there are signs of capitulation. </li>
<li>Barring another major negative shock, the market is poised for a relief rally into year-end and possibly January. </li>
<li>Small caps are washed out and could prove to be a worthwhile speculative buy as a way of taking advantage of the Santa Claus rally seasonal pattern.</li>
</ul>


The U.S. stock market is oversold and there are signs of capitulation. 
Barring another major negative shock, the market is poised for a relief rally into year-end and possibly January. 
Small caps are washed out and could prove to be a worthwhile speculative buy as a way of taking advantage of the Santa Claus rally seasonal pattern.


United States

SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust is an exchange-traded fund incorporated in the USA. The ETF tracks the S&P 500 Index. The Trust consists of a portfolio representing all 500 stocks in the S&P 500 Index. It holds predominantly large-cap U.S. stocks. This ETF is structured as a Unit Investment Trust and pays dividends on a quarterly basis. The holdings are weighted by market capitalization.

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SPDR S&P 500 (SPY US)

Time to Turn Defensive

The sell signal has arrived and the tone of the stock market is turning decidedly bearish. Our base-case scenario calls for a 5–10% pullback in the...

Cam Hui

Don't Fight The (Hawkish) Fed

FANG+ stocks are the new defensive positioning under such a hawkish Fed scenario. But the expected large-cap growth leadership should begin to fade...

Cam Hui

Don't Overstay the Party

Investment-oriented accounts should begin to de-risk their portfolios by reducing their equity weights. Short-term traders may want to wait for a...

Cam Hui

A Breakout to S&P 4290?

The S&P 500 has formed a potential inverse head & shoulders pattern, with a measured objective of 4290, but H&S formations are incomplete until the...

Cam Hui

In Search of the Next Bearish Catalyst

The U.S. stock market is oversold and there are signs of capitulation. Barring another major negative shock, the market is poised for a relief...

Cam Hui

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