Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>The bear market rally we have been discussing since our Sept. 27 Compass report has begun.</li>
<li>Over half of the Sectors and all the major indexes (S&amp;P 500, Nasdaq 100, DJIA, and S&amp;P 600 Small Caps) display bullish 2+ month inflections.</li>
<li>As referenced last week, we expect the aforementioned indexes to rally to their 200-day MAs; longer-term, this is still a bear market until they can break above their 200-day MAs.</li>
</ul>


The bear market rally we have been discussing since our Sept. 27 Compass report has begun.
Over half of the Sectors and all the major indexes (S&amp;P 500, Nasdaq 100, DJIA, and S&amp;P 600 Small Caps) display bullish 2+ month inflections.
As referenced last week, we expect the aforementioned indexes to rally to their 200-day MAs; longer-term, this is still a bear market until they can break above their 200-day MAs.


Another Bear Market Rally Begins; Indexes and Sectors With Bullish 2+ Month Inflections

Cross-Asset Strategist & Quantitative Analyst, Pennock Idea Hub

Cam Hui

Cross-Asset Strategist & Quantitative Analyst

Pennock Idea Hub

We are creators of independent equity research. The Pennock Idea Hub team are veterans of the investment industry. Much of our team has spent their careers at Merrill Lynch, Deutsche Bank, RBC Capital Markets and Wood Gundy. We have taken every aspect of research back to the studs and returned to first principles. The Pennock Idea Hub marries the interests of the sell and buy side. 

We offer the best research for institutional investors by:

-Only publishing research from veteran analysts
-Eliminate the inherent conflicts of the traditional sell and buy side relationship
-Ensure our team is always accessible; collaboration with clients nurtures our collective success

Cross-Asset & Quantitative Research

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>The U.S. stock market appears to be highly resilient in the face of bad news.</li>
<li>We outline three catalysts that have the potential to change the macro narrative from bearish to bullish and spark a “rip your face off” rally.</li>
<li>While none of these factors are specifically actionable, investors should be aware of possible asymmetry of risks and behave accordingly.</li>
</ul>


The U.S. stock market appears to be highly resilient in the face of bad news.
We outline three catalysts that have the potential to change the macro narrative from bearish to bullish and spark a “rip your face off” rally.
While none of these factors are specifically actionable, investors should be aware of possible asymmetry of risks and behave accordingly.


Three Catalysts That Could Spark A "Rip Your Face Off" Rally

<ul>
<li>The China stimulus news may be a catalyst for a relief rally of unknown magnitude.</li>
<li>While a V-shaped recovery is always a possibility, the odds favour a re-test of the old lows in the coming weeks.</li>
<li>The bears aren’t done yet, and the FOMC fear and rally cycle may not be done either.</li>
</ul>


The China stimulus news may be a catalyst for a relief rally of unknown magnitude.
While a V-shaped recovery is always a possibility, the odds favour a re-test of the old lows in the coming weeks.
The bears aren’t done yet, and the FOMC fear and rally cycle may not be done either.


China Blinked, But Can It Save the World Again?

Macroeconomic and Investing, The Macro Compass

Alfonso Peccatiello (Alf)

Macroeconomic and Investing

The Macro Compass

Actionable investment ideas and unique global macro insights. From the desk of a former Head of $20 bn Investment Portfolio straight to your inbox.

Actionable Investment Ideas

Macroeconomics

<ul><li>Investing is all about probabilities: all you need to do is assess the chances markets are assigning to different scenarios today and anticipate how this probability distribution will move over time.</li><li>In other words, you don’t need to be necessarily right on what happens next but just be able to grasp how market consensus will move from here.</li><li>Ignoring this simple principle has been a very expensive exercise for European fixed income investors over the last few weeks: the-ECB-will-never-really-hike mantra is melting under the eyes of bond investors married to a dovish narrative which has been successful for a decade but offers a very bad risk-reward today.</li></ul>

Investing is all about probabilities: all you need to do is assess the chances markets are assigning to different scenarios today and anticipate how this probability distribution will move over time.In other words, you don’t need to be necessarily right on what happens next but just be able to grasp how market consensus will move from here.Ignoring this simple principle has been a very expensive exercise for European fixed income investors over the last few weeks: the-ECB-will-never-really-hike mantra is melting under the eyes of bond investors married to a dovish narrative which has been successful for a decade but offers a very bad risk-reward today.

The Biggest Macro Risk You Might Be Ignoring

<ul>
<li>A review of different sentiment metrics indicates an atmosphere of heightened fear.</li>
<li>The intermediate path of least resistance for U.S. equity prices is still down.</li>
<li>We continue to believe the risk/reward is tilted to the upside in the short run. </li>
</ul>


A review of different sentiment metrics indicates an atmosphere of heightened fear.
The intermediate path of least resistance for U.S. equity prices is still down.
We continue to believe the risk/reward is tilted to the upside in the short run. 


United States

SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust is an exchange-traded fund incorporated in the USA. The ETF tracks the S&P 500 Index. The Trust consists of a portfolio representing all 500 stocks in the S&P 500 Index. It holds predominantly large-cap U.S. stocks. This ETF is structured as a Unit Investment Trust and pays dividends on a quarterly basis. The holdings are weighted by market capitalization.

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SPDR S&P 500 (SPY US)

Another Bear Market Rally Begins; Indexes and Sectors With Bullish 2+ Month Inflections

The bear market rally we have been discussing since Sept. 27 has begun, with over half of the Sectors and all the major indexes $SPX $QQQ $NDX...

Vermilion Research

Three Catalysts That Could Spark A "Rip Your Face Off" Rally

We outline three catalysts that have the potential to change the macro narrative from bearish to bullish and spark a “rip your face off” rally.

Cam Hui

China Blinked, But Can It Save the World Again?

The China stimulus news may be a catalyst for a relief rally of unknown magnitude. The bears aren’t done yet, and the FOMC fear-and-rally cycle may...

Cam Hui

The Biggest Macro Risk You Might Be Ignoring

Investing is all about probabilities: all you need to do is assess the chances markets are assigning to different scenarios today and anticipate...

Alfonso Peccatiello (Alf)

Washed Out Enough?

A review of different sentiment metrics indicates an atmosphere of heightened fear. While the intermediate trend is still down, we believe risk...

Cam Hui

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52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)