Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>We are seeing a broad-based snap-back rally after the S&amp;P 500 found support at our 5100-5191 target/bounce area which we discussed in our 7/30/24 and 8/6/24 Compass reports</li>
<li>We are not out of the woods as we still see the $SPX and $QQQ going through a 1- to 4-month pullback/consolidation period, and market dynamics remain far from perfect.</li>
<li>Apr. 2000, Aug. 2007, Feb. 2022 $SPX top comparisons are why we expected SPX to find support at 5100, AND THEN test YTD highs (8/13/24 Compass report).</li>
</ul>


We are seeing a broad-based snap-back rally after the S&amp;P 500 found support at our 5100-5191 target/bounce area which we discussed in our 7/30/24 and 8/6/24 Compass reports
We are not out of the woods as we still see the $SPX and $QQQ going through a 1- to 4-month pullback/consolidation period, and market dynamics remain far from perfect.
Apr. 2000, Aug. 2007, Feb. 2022 $SPX top comparisons are why we expected SPX to find support at 5100, AND THEN test YTD highs (8/13/24 Compass report).


Snap-Back Rally Tests YTD Highs; Apr. 2000, Aug. 2007, Feb. 2022 $SPX Top Comparisons Still in Play

Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist, Steno Research

Andreas Steno

Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist

Macro and Geopolitical Research House

Steno Research

Steno Research is a new macro and geopolitical research house. We are based out of Copenhagen, Denmark, but have an international team and a strong network of sources and partners around the world. The team is lead by Andreas Steno, previous global head of strategy at Nordea Bank, and Mikkel Rosenvold, former chief consultant in the Danish Ministry of Finance.

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul><li>Hello everyone, and welcome back to our weekly positioning watch.</li><li>The debates about whether the US is heading for a recession are still touring the charts, as the labor market and other economic data soften back towards pre-pandemic levels.</li><li>However, while some might be uncomfortable watching the US economy slow more than anticipated, the lack of ringing alarm bells and Powell’s recent victory lap on inflation have greenlighted markets to price in a soft landing as a 95-99% probability event by now when looking across positioning data.</li></ul>

Hello everyone, and welcome back to our weekly positioning watch.The debates about whether the US is heading for a recession are still touring the charts, as the labor market and other economic data soften back towards pre-pandemic levels.However, while some might be uncomfortable watching the US economy slow more than anticipated, the lack of ringing alarm bells and Powell’s recent victory lap on inflation have greenlighted markets to price in a soft landing as a 95-99% probability event by now when looking across positioning data.

Positioning Watch – The Soft Landing Is Moving Towards a Recovery Trade

Geopolitical Analyst, Steno Research, Steno Research

Mikkel Rosenvold

Geopolitical Analyst, Steno Research

<ul><li>We cover the Trump assassination attempt in other spaces, so in this we’ll focus on the political fallout and touch upon other relevant topics, including the Chinese Policy Plenary.</li><li>Firstly some thought on Trump picking J.D. Vance as his running mate.</li><li>As a staunch Trump supporter, Vance represents a more grassroots, anti-establishment figure compared to others like Nikki Haley.</li></ul>

We cover the Trump assassination attempt in other spaces, so in this we’ll focus on the political fallout and touch upon other relevant topics, including the Chinese Policy Plenary.Firstly some thought on Trump picking J.D. Vance as his running mate.As a staunch Trump supporter, Vance represents a more grassroots, anti-establishment figure compared to others like Nikki Haley.

Great Game – Trump: Election or Coronation?

Global Commodities, Mint Finance

Srinidhi Raghavendra

Global Commodities

Deep Fundamental Analysis

Mint Finance

Mint Finance's investment research blends deep fundamental analysis with technical & quant insights. Investment strategies straddle across multiple asset classes with risk management embedded into every trade to deliver an outsized reward-to-risk ratio.

Mint Finance's research is centered around three key themes. First, energy transition and climate change. Second, artificial intelligence. Third, shifting world order with its impact across politics and monetary economics.

<ul>
<li>Yale Hirsch's Presidential Election Cycle theory posits that US equities perform best in third year followed by the election year. Equities are weakest in the year following the election.</li>
<li>Over 6 decades, the S&amp;P500 delivered positive returns in thirteen of sixteen election years. On average, the index returned 4.1% during 1H followed by 3.2% in 2H.</li>
<li>Forget this theory, markets are pricing an 88% chance of rates being slashed starting Sep. Citi analysts expect 200bps of cuts over 8 meetings. Euphoric markets will go on steroids.</li>
</ul>


Yale Hirsch's Presidential Election Cycle theory posits that US equities perform best in third year followed by the election year. Equities are weakest in the year following the election.
Over 6 decades, the S&amp;P500 delivered positive returns in thirteen of sixteen election years. On average, the index returned 4.1% during 1H followed by 3.2% in 2H.
Forget this theory, markets are pricing an 88% chance of rates being slashed starting Sep. Citi analysts expect 200bps of cuts over 8 meetings. Euphoric markets will go on steroids.


Will Presidential Election Cycle Theory Fuel Continued US Equities Rally in 2H 2024?

<ul>
<li>Hello and welcome to this week’s Great Game.</li>
<li>The First Round of the French Legislative Election was held on Sunday and the initial results suggested a clear win for Marine Le Pen’s far-right coalition around her <em>National Rally</em> party</li>
<li>Biden is starting to drop rapidly in polls after the US presidential debate.</li>
</ul>


Hello and welcome to this week’s Great Game.
The First Round of the French Legislative Election was held on Sunday and the initial results suggested a clear win for Marine Le Pen’s far-right coalition around her National Rally party
Biden is starting to drop rapidly in polls after the US presidential debate.


Great Game – Biden in Free-Fall and a French Ménage À Trois

United States

SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust is an exchange-traded fund incorporated in the USA. The ETF tracks the S&P 500 Index. The Trust consists of a portfolio representing all 500 stocks in the S&P 500 Index. It holds predominantly large-cap U.S. stocks. This ETF is structured as a Unit Investment Trust and pays dividends on a quarterly basis. The holdings are weighted by market capitalization.

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SPDR S&P 500 (SPY US)

Snap-Back Rally Tests YTD Highs; Apr. 2000, Aug. 2007, Feb. 2022 $SPX Top Comparisons Still in Play

Snap-Back Rally Tests YTD Highs; Apr. 2000, Aug. 2007, Feb. 2022 $SPX Top Comparisons Still in Play. These comparisons are why we expected support...

Vermilion Research

Positioning Watch – The Soft Landing Is Moving Towards a Recovery Trade

Overall positioning and sentiment indicators are starting to diverge, though. Most indicators show continued support for risk assets in H2.

Steno Research

Great Game – Trump: Election or Coronation?

Welcome to this week’s Great Game after an incredible weekend. We also cover the Trump assasination attempt in other spaces, so in this we’ll...

Steno Research

Will Presidential Election Cycle Theory Fuel Continued US Equities Rally in 2H 2024?

Over last 60 years, S&P500 delivered positive returns in 13 of 16 election years. It returned +4.1% during 1H followed by +3.2% in 2H. Does...

Mint Finance

Great Game – Biden in Free-Fall and a French Ménage À Trois

Biden is starting to drop rapidly in polls after the US presidential debate. Many polls show Trump to have opened a 2-4 point lead nationally,...

Steno Research

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