Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

iShares Russell 2000 ETF / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>The S&amp;P 500 broke above 4200 and the 2-month megaphone pattern on Friday, and is already approaching the 4300-4325 area which we have anticipated would cap upside for 2023.</li>
<li>While we would be cautious at these levels given our expectation for inflation to remain elevated, we cannot get too bearish if the S&amp;P 500 is above 4165-4200.</li>
<li>Breadth remains weak within the S&amp;P 500, but we are starting to see breadth improvement within small-cap Russell 2000 (IWM). More on that below, IWM targets include $190 and $200-202.</li>
</ul>


The S&amp;P 500 broke above 4200 and the 2-month megaphone pattern on Friday, and is already approaching the 4300-4325 area which we have anticipated would cap upside for 2023.
While we would be cautious at these levels given our expectation for inflation to remain elevated, we cannot get too bearish if the S&amp;P 500 is above 4165-4200.
Breadth remains weak within the S&amp;P 500, but we are starting to see breadth improvement within small-cap Russell 2000 (IWM). More on that below, IWM targets include $190 and $200-202.


Russell 2000 Breakout Attempt Underway; Small-Cap Breadth Improving; KRE, KBE, XRT Test Key Levels

High Quality Stock Setups, Weekly Stock Bull Finder

Weekly Stock Bull Finder

High Quality Stock Setups

Finding high potential stock setups on quality companies

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>Semiconductors- “Big Money” Rabid Buying Spree Continues NVIDIA’s (NVDA) and Marvell’s (MRVL) earnings calls and forward guidance delivered this week resulted in earthquake shock re-rating to all things semiconductors on Thursday and Friday.</li><li>On Thursday, NVIDIA’s $198B market cap gain was the largest market cap gain in market history.</li><li>In the first quarter of this year, Microsoft gave clues that artificial intelligence would emerge as the next great computing platform and then this quarter it appears that Wall St. has woken up to the degree of significant data center retooling and infrastructure spending which will be required to support emerging artificial intelligence computing demand.</li></ul>

Semiconductors- “Big Money” Rabid Buying Spree Continues NVIDIA’s (NVDA) and Marvell’s (MRVL) earnings calls and forward guidance delivered this week resulted in earthquake shock re-rating to all things semiconductors on Thursday and Friday.On Thursday, NVIDIA’s $198B market cap gain was the largest market cap gain in market history.In the first quarter of this year, Microsoft gave clues that artificial intelligence would emerge as the next great computing platform and then this quarter it appears that Wall St. has woken up to the degree of significant data center retooling and infrastructure spending which will be required to support emerging artificial intelligence computing demand.

<ul>
<li>We continue believe that upside is limited with the S&amp;P 500 testing the top-end of our anticipated 2023 trading range (4165-4200).</li>
<li>Our gameplan remains unchanged; reduce risk near resistance (where we are now) and add risk near support (the December 2022 lows at 3765 and/or the 2022 lows at 3490).</li>
<li>A break above 4200 on the SPX would likely mean a test of 4300-4325, which we would view as a selling opportunity. A break below 4050 would kickstart a pullback.</li>
</ul>


We continue believe that upside is limited with the S&amp;P 500 testing the top-end of our anticipated 2023 trading range (4165-4200).
Our gameplan remains unchanged; reduce risk near resistance (where we are now) and add risk near support (the December 2022 lows at 3765 and/or the 2022 lows at 3490).
A break above 4200 on the SPX would likely mean a test of 4300-4325, which we would view as a selling opportunity. A break below 4050 would kickstart a pullback.


SPX Forming Coiled Spring Between 4200 and 4050; 10Y/2Y Treasury Spread Suggests Recession Close

<ul>
<li>We still recommend a tactical overweight to defensives (Staples, Utilities, Healthcare, and gold miners) as the SPX tests our 4165-4200 resistance range, and also resistance from the prior 1.5-month uptrend.</li>
<li>As we await Wednesdays FOMC announcement, the DJIA and Nasdaq Composite are testing 1-year resistances at 34,280 and 12,300, the DXY appears to be inflecting higher, and breadth remains weak.</li>
<li>While we still see a reach to 4300-4325 as possible, we believe playing for more upside is akin to picking up pennies in front of a steamroller.</li>
</ul>


We still recommend a tactical overweight to defensives (Staples, Utilities, Healthcare, and gold miners) as the SPX tests our 4165-4200 resistance range, and also resistance from the prior 1.5-month uptrend.
As we await Wednesdays FOMC announcement, the DJIA and Nasdaq Composite are testing 1-year resistances at 34,280 and 12,300, the DXY appears to be inflecting higher, and breadth remains weak.
While we still see a reach to 4300-4325 as possible, we believe playing for more upside is akin to picking up pennies in front of a steamroller.


S&P 500 Testing 4165-4200, DJIA Testing 34,280, Nasdaq Composite Testing 12,300; Stay Defensive

VanEck Gold Miners ETF/USA / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>The SPX made a high of 4169 last week, tagging our 4165-4200 resistance range. We still believe 4165-4200 will cap upside in 2023, with a reach to 4300-4325 also possible.</li>
<li>Considering limited upside in both scenarios, and with the seasonably weaker "sell in May and go away" period approaching, we continue to recommend higher allocations to defensives</li>
<li>This includes Utilities (XLU, RYU), Consumer Staples (XLP), Health Care (XLV, PPH), and gold miners (GDX).</li>
</ul>


The SPX made a high of 4169 last week, tagging our 4165-4200 resistance range. We still believe 4165-4200 will cap upside in 2023, with a reach to 4300-4325 also possible.
Considering limited upside in both scenarios, and with the seasonably weaker "sell in May and go away" period approaching, we continue to recommend higher allocations to defensives
This includes Utilities (XLU, RYU), Consumer Staples (XLP), Health Care (XLV, PPH), and gold miners (GDX).


"Sell in May" Another Reason to Be Defensive; Value to Lead?; Buys in Medical Devices, Footwear

United States

SPDR S&P Bank ETF is an exchange-traded fund incorporated in the USA. The Fund's objective is to replicate the performance of the S&P Banks Select Industry Index. The Index itself is a float adjusted modified-market capitalization weighted index of geographically diverse companies representing national money center banks & regional banking institutions listed on US stock markets.

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SPDR S&P Bank ETF (KBE US)

Russell 2000 Breakout Attempt Underway; Small-Cap Breadth Improving; KRE, KBE, XRT Test Key Levels

Breadth remains weak within the $SPX, but we're seeing breadth improve within the small-cap Russell 2000 $IWM. All this points to a breakout above...

Vermilion Research

Weekly Stock Bullfinder - Week of 5/29

Debate around whether artificial intelligence represents a “tech bubble” was seemingly squashed when both NVIDIA and Marvell put robust forward...

Weekly Stock Bull Finder

SPX Forming Coiled Spring Between 4200 and 4050; 10Y/2Y Treasury Spread Suggests Recession Close

We continue believe that upside is limited with the $SPX testing the top-end of our anticipated 2023 trading range (4165-4200). On the off chance...

Vermilion Research

S&P 500 Testing 4165-4200, DJIA Testing 34,280, Nasdaq Composite Testing 12,300; Stay Defensive

$SPX testing our 4165-4200 resistance range, $DJI testing 34,280 1-yr resistance, Nasdaq Comp $COMPQ testing critical 12,300 resistance. All while...

Vermilion Research

"Sell in May" Another Reason to Be Defensive; Value to Lead?; Buys in Medical Devices, Footwear

"Sell in May" Another Reason to Be Defensive; Value Poised to Outperform?; Watching Semiconductors $SOXX $XSD and Banks $KRE $KBE for breakage....

Vermilion Research

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