European Event-Driven Analyst

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Toscafund’s 250p proposal is now a recommended, fully financed Scheme, backed by Three Hills and Ares, with irrevocables covering 42.7% of Scheme Shares.</li>
<li>Even at 100% turnout, Bidco needs support from only 56.4% of remaining uncommitted Scheme Shares. We assign 90% completion probability.</li>
<li>More than 60 potential buyers were contacted over eight months. No higher executable proposal emerged, leaving limited scope for a topping bid.</li>
</ul>


Toscafund’s 250p proposal is now a recommended, fully financed Scheme, backed by Three Hills and Ares, with irrevocables covering 42.7% of Scheme Shares.
Even at 100% turnout, Bidco needs support from only 56.4% of remaining uncommitted Scheme Shares. We assign 90% completion probability.
More than 60 potential buyers were contacted over eight months. No higher executable proposal emerged, leaving limited scope for a topping bid.


Spire Healthcare: 250p, This Time With a Deal

<ul>
<li>Toscafund’s 250p proposal values Spire at only ~8.0x NTM EBITDA, materially below prior healthcare take-private precedent despite a 66% premium to the unaffected share price.</li>
<li>Shares trading around 222p, implying a 12.6% gross spread and ~61% market-implied completion probability, relatively low for a board-supported proposal emerging from a formal strategic review.</li>
<li>The same 250p/share price rejected in 2021 is now potentially acceptable, highlighting the derating of UK healthcare assets amid higher rates and weaker sponsor appetite.</li>
</ul>


Toscafund’s 250p proposal values Spire at only ~8.0x NTM EBITDA, materially below prior healthcare take-private precedent despite a 66% premium to the unaffected share price.
Shares trading around 222p, implying a 12.6% gross spread and ~61% market-implied completion probability, relatively low for a board-supported proposal emerging from a formal strategic review.
The same 250p/share price rejected in 2021 is now potentially acceptable, highlighting the derating of UK healthcare assets amid higher rates and weaker sponsor appetite.


Spire Heathcare: Spire Healthcare: Healthy Premium, Sick Multiple

Index Rebalance and Special Situations, Quiddity Advisors

Afridi Reyal

Index Rebalance and Special Situations

Quiddity Advisors

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>In this insight, we look at the potential index changes for the F100 and F250 in the run-up to the December 2026 rebal.</li>
<li>We currently expect one F100 change and two F250 changes for the December 2026 rebal. An IPO drives the F100 change, while one F250 change depends on a market transfer.</li>
<li>We also expect one intra-review change for the F250 prior to the December 2026 rebal.</li>
</ul>


In this insight, we look at the potential index changes for the F100 and F250 in the run-up to the December 2026 rebal.
We currently expect one F100 change and two F250 changes for the December 2026 rebal. An IPO drives the F100 change, while one F250 change depends on a market transfer.
We also expect one intra-review change for the F250 prior to the December 2026 rebal.


Quiddity Leaderboard F100/F250 Dec26: Airtel Money IPO and Serica Transfer in Focus

<ul>
<li>Strategic review has moved into an active, Rothschild-advised sponsor process, with credible private equity engagement following months of preparatory work.</li>
<li>Shares trade at mid-single-digit EV/EBITDA, materially below the ~11–12x multiples seen in prior sector take-privates and Spire’s own 2021 agreed offer.</li>
<li>Highly concentrated register (~80% held by top ten) supports negotiated price discovery in a Scheme, increasing relevance of mid-case outcomes over a low-premium bid.</li>
</ul>


Strategic review has moved into an active, Rothschild-advised sponsor process, with credible private equity engagement following months of preparatory work.
Shares trade at mid-single-digit EV/EBITDA, materially below the ~11–12x multiples seen in prior sector take-privates and Spire’s own 2021 agreed offer.
Highly concentrated register (~80% held by top ten) supports negotiated price discovery in a Scheme, increasing relevance of mid-case outcomes over a low-premium bid.


Spire Healthcare: Strategic Review Turns Live — Valuation Gap Vs Precedent Is Wide

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

Today's report puts a spotlight on the Health Care Sector, which is assuming a global leadership role vs. other Sectors. We also focus on the Communications Sector as we are seeing steady relative strength ranking (RSR) improvements over the last couple of months. At the Group level, we highlight select smid-cap Casinos &amp; Gaming stocks. Finally, India’s S&amp;P BSE SENSEX is breaking out to new all-time highs as RS bullishly inflects, we highlight actionable stocks.

Today's report puts a spotlight on the Health Care Sector, which is assuming a global leadership role vs. other Sectors. We also focus on the Communications Sector as we are seeing steady relative strength ranking (RSR) improvements over the last couple of months. At the Group level, we highlight select smid-cap Casinos &amp; Gaming stocks. Finally, India’s S&amp;P BSE SENSEX is breaking out to new all-time highs as RS bullishly inflects, we highlight actionable stocks.

Global Strategy: Health Care Outperforming - Overweight; India Breaking Out -Add Exposure

United Kingdom

Spire Healthcare is the second-largest provider of private healthcare in the United Kingdom, operating 38 hospitals and over 60 clinics across England, Wales, and Scotland. It provides diagnostics, inpatient, day case, and outpatient care across various medical specialties, including orthopaedics, gynaecology, cardiology, neurology, and oncology, serving insured, self-pay, and NHS patients. The company also offers primary care services, including private GPs, mental health support, and occupational health services to corporate clients. Spire Healthcare is headquartered in London, United Kingdom, and was founded in 2007.

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Spire Healthcare (SPI LN)

Spire Healthcare: 250p, This Time With a Deal

Spire’s long-running sale process has finally produced a firm 250p deal. With Friday’s close predating the Rule 2.7, Monday’s open should be worth...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Spire Heathcare: Spire Healthcare: Healthy Premium, Sick Multiple

Spire is back at 250p — the same price shareholders rejected in 2021. The market backdrop now looks very different. The premium looks large. The...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Quiddity Leaderboard F100/F250 Dec26: Airtel Money IPO and Serica Transfer in Focus

Airtel Money could become a strong name for the F100 inclusion in December 2026. We also see Serica Energy as an F250 ADD if it transfers to the...

Afridi Reyal

Spire Healthcare: Strategic Review Turns Live — Valuation Gap Vs Precedent Is Wide

Spire’s strategic review is now an active sponsor process. Shares trade at mid-single digit EV/EBITDA, below take-private precedents, with a...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Global Strategy: Health Care Outperforming - Overweight; India Breaking Out -Add Exposure

Today's report puts a spotlight on the Health Care Sector, which is assuming a global leadership role vs. other Sectors. We also focus on...

Vermilion Research

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