Index Rebal/Special Situations, Quiddity Advisors

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Index Rebal/Special Situations

Quiddity Advisors

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>In this insight, we take a look at the potential ADDs and DELs for the F100 and F250 indices during the December 2024 index rebal event.</li>
<li>We see up to seven M&amp;A-related intra-review changes in the run up to the December 2024 review.</li>
<li>Our latest estimates suggest there could be one change for the F250 index during the December 2024 rebalance. We do not currently see any changes for the F100.</li>
</ul>


In this insight, we take a look at the potential ADDs and DELs for the F100 and F250 indices during the December 2024 index rebal event.
We see up to seven M&amp;A-related intra-review changes in the run up to the December 2024 review.
Our latest estimates suggest there could be one change for the F250 index during the December 2024 rebalance. We do not currently see any changes for the F100.


Quiddity Leaderboard F100/F250 Dec 24: Intra-Review Changes Galore; High-Impact Replacement Names

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Murakami to tender stake in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jsr-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:17620:1" rel="noopener">JSR Corp (4185 JP)</a>? Maybe the "double arb": i.e. short on swap, long on cash, will tender the cash, remain short the back end.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/austal-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14420:1" rel="noopener">Austal Ltd (ASB AU)</a> rejected (for now) <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hanwha-ocean-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12531:1" rel="noopener">Hanwha Ocean (042660 KS)</a>'s bid based on regulatory concerns.  Hanwha reckons these should not be an issue.</li>
<li>If you can tolerate owning the mobile biz, buy <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/rakuten-group-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31:1" rel="noopener">Rakuten (4755 JP)</a> on dips. If not, avoid Rakuten Group and Rakuten Bank short-term; buy Rakuten Bank on larger dips.</li>
</ul>


Murakami to tender stake in JSR Corp (4185 JP)? Maybe the "double arb": i.e. short on swap, long on cash, will tender the cash, remain short the back end.

Austal Ltd (ASB AU) rejected (for now) Hanwha Ocean (042660 KS)'s bid based on regulatory concerns.  Hanwha reckons these should not be an issue.
If you can tolerate owning the mobile biz, buy Rakuten (4755 JP) on dips. If not, avoid Rakuten Group and Rakuten Bank short-term; buy Rakuten Bank on larger dips.


Last Week in Event SPACE: JSR, Austal, Rakuten, Hyundai Home Shopping, Hanmi Science

European Event-Driven Analyst

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/keysight-technologies-in" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1679:1" rel="noopener">Keysight Technologies In (KEYS US)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/spirent-communications-plc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22160:1" rel="noopener">Spirent Communications (SPT LN)</a> have agreed a recommended 201.5p/share cash acquisition via Scheme of Arrangement, an increase of 26.5p (15.1%) relative to <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/viavi-solutions-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15310:1" rel="noopener">Viavi Solutions (VIAV US)</a>'s Offer.</li>
<li>Spirent, with some scarcity value, should be able to improve its cyclicality as part of Keysight. A counteroffer from Viavi looks unlikely unless Silver Lake significantly increases its stake.</li>
<li>Gross spread is 1.99%. Using Keysight's forecast s about completion, at best, estimated annual return would be 3.51% while at worst, 1.88%. This suggests there may be better opportunities elsewhere.</li>
</ul>



Keysight Technologies In (KEYS US) and Spirent Communications (SPT LN) have agreed a recommended 201.5p/share cash acquisition via Scheme of Arrangement, an increase of 26.5p (15.1%) relative to Viavi Solutions (VIAV US)'s Offer.
Spirent, with some scarcity value, should be able to improve its cyclicality as part of Keysight. A counteroffer from Viavi looks unlikely unless Silver Lake significantly increases its stake.
Gross spread is 1.99%. Using Keysight's forecast s about completion, at best, estimated annual return would be 3.51% while at worst, 1.88%. This suggests there may be better opportunities elsewhere.


Keysight/Spirent: Recommended Competing Offer

Keisei Electric Railway Co / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/keisei-electric-railway-co" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10876:1" rel="noopener">Keisei Electric Railway Co (9009 JP)</a> places out 1% of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/oriental-land-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13517:1" rel="noopener">Oriental Land (4661 JP)</a>, but rejects lowering its stake to 15%.  That is the end of the near-term catalyst.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/new-world-development" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7037:1" rel="noopener">New World Development (17 HK)</a> popped after property cooling measures were scrapped. Then gave those gains back. And then some, and is now trading at 0.11x P/B, its lowest-ever level.</li>
<li>The spreads for  both <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/alumina-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:939:1" rel="noopener">Alumina Ltd (AWC AU) </a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/azure-minerals-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16538:1" rel="noopener">Azure Minerals (AZS AU)</a> are trading wide; both potentially FIRB-related.</li>
</ul>



Keisei Electric Railway Co (9009 JP) places out 1% of Oriental Land (4661 JP), but rejects lowering its stake to 15%.  That is the end of the near-term catalyst.

New World Development (17 HK) popped after property cooling measures were scrapped. Then gave those gains back. And then some, and is now trading at 0.11x P/B, its lowest-ever level.
The spreads for  both Alumina Ltd (AWC AU)  and Azure Minerals (AZS AU) are trading wide; both potentially FIRB-related.


Last Week in Event SPACE: Keisei Electric, New World Development, Alumina Ltd, Azure Minerals, TDCX

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/viavi-solutions-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15310:1" rel="noopener">Viavi Solutions (VIAV US)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/spirent-communications-plc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22160:1" rel="noopener">Spirent Communications (SPT LN)</a> have agreed a cash acquisition via Scheme at 175p (61% premium, 2.5x EV/Fwd Revenue) with just 0.23% irrevocable undertakings. </li>
<li>The opportunity seems good enough so that Viavi (BB) will stretch even more its balance sheet, although Silver Lake is providing 1/3rd of the funds needed.</li>
<li>Gross spread is +0.11%. I believe that shareholders are holding for a sweetening; quite possibly this is a target for activists too. Risk/return seems attractive. Long.</li>
</ul>



Viavi Solutions (VIAV US) and Spirent Communications (SPT LN) have agreed a cash acquisition via Scheme at 175p (61% premium, 2.5x EV/Fwd Revenue) with just 0.23% irrevocable undertakings. 
The opportunity seems good enough so that Viavi (BB) will stretch even more its balance sheet, although Silver Lake is providing 1/3rd of the funds needed.
Gross spread is +0.11%. I believe that shareholders are holding for a sweetening; quite possibly this is a target for activists too. Risk/return seems attractive. Long.


Viavi/Spirent: Management Throw in the Towel but Shareholders Likely to Hold

United Kingdom

Spirent Communications plc is a British multinational company providing automated test and assurance solutions for networks, cybersecurity, and positioning. It offers products, services, and managed solutions addressing challenges in technologies like 5G, SD-WAN, cloud, and autonomous vehicles. The company is headquartered in Crawley, West Sussex, UK, and was founded in 1936.

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Spirent Communications (SPT LN)

Quiddity Leaderboard F100/F250 Dec 24: Intra-Review Changes Galore; High-Impact Replacement Names

The Top 10 F250 potential ADDs could outperform the F250 index since there are many intra-review addition possibilities and these names are high...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Last Week in Event SPACE: JSR, Austal, Rakuten, Hyundai Home Shopping, Hanmi Science

The weekend is here! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed...

David Blennerhassett

Keysight/Spirent: Recommended Competing Offer

Keysight to acquire Spirent for 201.5p/share. Viavi unlikely to counteroffer unless Silver Lake increases stake. Gross spread is 1.99%, estimated...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Last Week in Event SPACE: Keisei Electric, New World Development, Alumina Ltd, Azure Minerals, TDCX

The weekend is here! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed...

David Blennerhassett

Viavi/Spirent: Management Throw in the Towel but Shareholders Likely to Hold

Viavi Solutions and Spirent Communications agree to cash acquisition at 175p with just 0.23% irrevocable undertakings, with Silver Lake's help....

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

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Quiddity Leaderboard F100/F250 Dec 24: Intra-Review Changes Galore; High-Impact Replacement Names

The Top 10 F250 potential ADDs could outperform the F250 index since there are many intra-review addition possibilities and these names are high...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Last Week in Event SPACE: JSR, Austal, Rakuten, Hyundai Home Shopping, Hanmi Science

The weekend is here! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed...

David Blennerhassett

Keysight/Spirent: Recommended Competing Offer

​Keysight to acquire Spirent for 201.5p/share. Viavi unlikely to counteroffer unless Silver Lake increases stake. Gross spread is 1.99%, estimated...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Last Week in Event SPACE: Keisei Electric, New World Development, Alumina Ltd, Azure Minerals, TDCX

The weekend is here! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed...

David Blennerhassett

Viavi/Spirent: Management Throw in the Towel but Shareholders Likely to Hold

​Viavi Solutions and Spirent Communications agree to cash acquisition at 175p with just 0.23% irrevocable undertakings, with Silver Lake's help....

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Keysight to acquire Spirent for 201.5p/share. Viavi unlikely to counteroffer unless Silver Lake increases stake. Gross spread is 1.99%, estimated...

Viavi Solutions and Spirent Communications agree to cash acquisition at 175p with just 0.23% irrevocable undertakings, with Silver Lake's help....