Japan/Asia Long-Short, LightStream Research

Mio Kato

Japan/Asia Long-Short

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

Equity Bottom-Up

In the middle of July we noted that Square Enix was benefitting from increased streamer interest in FFXIV at the expense of World of Warcraft. This has continued and stands to benefit Square Enix significantly but this impact does not appear to be priced in yet.

In the middle of July we noted that Square Enix was benefitting from increased streamer interest in FFXIV at the expense of World of Warcraft. This has continued and stands to benefit Square Enix significantly but this impact does not appear to be priced in yet.

Square Enix – The Market STILL Has Not Priced in the FFXIV Boom

Overnight Sony held a PlayStation Showcase event which surprised to the upside in terms of the number and quality of titles on display. It further cemented Sony’s commitment to rolling out its own games on PC and the strategic implications for its first party studios also look intriguing.

Overnight Sony held a PlayStation Showcase event which surprised to the upside in terms of the number and quality of titles on display. It further cemented Sony’s commitment to rolling out its own games on PC and the strategic implications for its first party studios also look intriguing.

Conviction Call Sony – PlayStation Showcase Underlines Strength of Pipeline

For over a year we have been discussing the opportunity Square Enix has to displace Blizzard’s World of Warcraft –<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/square-enix-what-the-witcher-says-about-content-synergies-and-implications-for-game-developers" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Square Enix – What the Witcher Says About Content Synerg ... (smartkarma.com)</a><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/square-enix-ff7re-is-the-cherry-not-the-sundae" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Square Enix – FF7RE Is the Cherry, Not the Sundae (smartkarma.com)</a><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/square-enix-strength-of-balanced-business-portfolio-shines-through" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Square Enix – Strength of Balanced Business Portfolio Sh ... (smartkarma.com)</a>That opportunity was a pile of tinder wood in search of a match and it appears that the name of that match is Asmongold.

For over a year we have been discussing the opportunity Square Enix has to displace Blizzard’s World of Warcraft –Square Enix – What the Witcher Says About Content Synerg ... (smartkarma.com)Square Enix – FF7RE Is the Cherry, Not the Sundae (smartkarma.com)Square Enix – Strength of Balanced Business Portfolio Sh ... (smartkarma.com)That opportunity was a pile of tinder wood in search of a match and it appears that the name of that match is Asmongold.

Square Enix – Behold the Asmongold Effect

Event-Driven

Square Enix is up 13% today as Bloomberg has reported that M&amp;A Reporting company CTFN has said that Square Enix is the subject of M&amp;A interest from a variety of companies, according to two investment banking sources.

Square Enix is up 13% today as Bloomberg has reported that M&amp;A Reporting company CTFN has said that Square Enix is the subject of M&amp;A interest from a variety of companies, according to two investment banking sources.

Square Enix – CTFN Reports M&A Interest

Our sceptical position on the elevated multiples for tech stocks has been relatively consistent over time. As with all bubbles, despite valuations clearly being out of touch with reality, markets have continued to trend upwards, and in many cases the least attractive stocks have done the best. We would argue that signs of liquidity issues at Ark and the rapid implosion of Archegos herald the beginning of the end.

Our sceptical position on the elevated multiples for tech stocks has been relatively consistent over time. As with all bubbles, despite valuations clearly being out of touch with reality, markets have continued to trend upwards, and in many cases the least attractive stocks have done the best. We would argue that signs of liquidity issues at Ark and the rapid implosion of Archegos herald the beginning of the end.

Softbank – Is Archegos the Bear Stearns CDO Funds in the Coalmine?

Japan

SQUARE ENIX HOLDINGS CO., LTD. develops and sells entertainment software for home video game consoles including Dragon Quest and Final Fantasy series. The Company also publishes books such as informational guide books for its game software, and comic magazines and books.  Additionally, Square Enix sells character goods and stationery items from its software products.

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Square Enix Holdings (9684 JP)

Square Enix – The Market STILL Has Not Priced in the FFXIV Boom

In the middle of July we noted that Square Enix was benefitting from increased streamer interest in FFXIV at the expense of World of Warcraft. This...

Mio Kato

Conviction Call Sony – PlayStation Showcase Underlines Strength of Pipeline

Sony's PlayStation Showcase surprised to the upside in terms of the number and quality of titles on display and the strategic implications for its...

Mio Kato

Square Enix – Behold the Asmongold Effect

Twitch streamer Asmongold has helped drive a surge in viewership and player numbers for FFXIV which could have a material impact on Square Enix's...

Mio Kato

Square Enix – CTFN Reports M&A Interest

We are sceptical about reports of M&A interest in Square Enix and believe a deal is unlikely to happen, however, that does not necessarily mean the...

Mio Kato

Softbank – Is Archegos the Bear Stearns CDO Funds in the Coalmine?

With a lot of signs of market stress emerging following a truly bubbly run up in 2020 we examine the prospects for a stock that has traditionally...

Mio Kato

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