Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>The Sep24 Nikkei 225 Rebal was odd. They could have done 3. They did 2. For now, I still see 2 IN and 2 OUT for the Mar25 Nikkei225 Rebal.</li>
<li>There is also a capping event for Fast Retailing which on mild outperformance could become a double-capping event. It briefly went double, approaching triple, but is now single capping again.</li>
<li>There is still a tech bent to potential ADDs. Some Consumer Goods stocks need stock splits to get in. Longer-term, the TOPIX methodology Rejig is an interesting angle. to changes.</li>
</ul>


The Sep24 Nikkei 225 Rebal was odd. They could have done 3. They did 2. For now, I still see 2 IN and 2 OUT for the Mar25 Nikkei225 Rebal.
There is also a capping event for Fast Retailing which on mild outperformance could become a double-capping event. It briefly went double, approaching triple, but is now single capping again.
There is still a tech bent to potential ADDs. Some Consumer Goods stocks need stock splits to get in. Longer-term, the TOPIX methodology Rejig is an interesting angle. to changes.


Quiddity Mar25 Nikkei 225 Rebal: Likely 2 IN, 2 OUT; Lots of Movement but the Same Names

Global TMT Analyst, Ex-PM, 30 years experience

Neil Campling

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Gaming Award nominations could spark sales lift into key holiday selling season   </li>
<li>Highly watched Industry Scores are moving higher for FF7 Rebirth. FF7 Rebirth moving higher up key US gaming charts</li>
<li>Five CQ4 release titles could drive revenues higher from recent lower reset. Big valuation discount and balance sheet opportunities exist</li>
</ul>


Gaming Award nominations could spark sales lift into key holiday selling season   
Highly watched Industry Scores are moving higher for FF7 Rebirth. FF7 Rebirth moving higher up key US gaming charts
Five CQ4 release titles could drive revenues higher from recent lower reset. Big valuation discount and balance sheet opportunities exist


Gaming. Square Enix (9684 JP). 3 NOTABLE POSITIVES SO FAR IN OCTOBER. BIG MONTH AHEAD

<ul>
<li>The Sep24 Nikkei 225 Rebal was odd. They could have done 3. They did 2. For now, I see 2 IN and 2 OUT for the Mar25 Nikkei 225 Rebal.</li>
<li>There is also a capping event for Fast Retailing which on mild outperformance could become a double-capping event. </li>
<li>There is a bit of a tech bent to potential ADDs. Some Consumer Goods stocks need stock splits to get in. The Committee will regret not adding PPIH last time.</li>
</ul>


The Sep24 Nikkei 225 Rebal was odd. They could have done 3. They did 2. For now, I see 2 IN and 2 OUT for the Mar25 Nikkei 225 Rebal.
There is also a capping event for Fast Retailing which on mild outperformance could become a double-capping event. 
There is a bit of a tech bent to potential ADDs. Some Consumer Goods stocks need stock splits to get in. The Committee will regret not adding PPIH last time.


Quiddity Mar25 Nikkei 225 Rebal: Likely 2 IN, 2 OUT, Again; Minimal Surprise Factor

<ul>
<li>The Sep24 Nikkei 225 Review Results are out, discussed in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/sep24-nikkei-225-review-results-a-slightly-baffling-2-in-2-out" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:157890" rel="noopener">Sep24 Nikkei 225 Review Results:  A Slightly Baffling 2 IN, 2 OUT</a>. </li>
<li>That lets us move to Mar25 Nikkei 225 Rebal predictions. For the moment, I see 2 IN and 2 OUT, again. </li>
<li>And at the moment, another Fast Retailing capping exercise looks likely, for roughly US$3bn a side to trade.</li>
</ul>


The Sep24 Nikkei 225 Review Results are out, discussed in Sep24 Nikkei 225 Review Results:  A Slightly Baffling 2 IN, 2 OUT. 
That lets us move to Mar25 Nikkei 225 Rebal predictions. For the moment, I see 2 IN and 2 OUT, again. 
And at the moment, another Fast Retailing capping exercise looks likely, for roughly US$3bn a side to trade.


Mar25 Nikkei 225 Rebal Predictions: Likely 2 IN, 2 OUT, Again; Minimal Surprise Factor

Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs, Douglas Research Advisory

Douglas Kim

Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs

Douglas Research Advisory

Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>In this insight, we discuss a trading strategy for Shift Up which starts trading on 11 July. Shift Up is one of the most anticipated IPOs in Korea this year.</li>
<li>Our base case (6 months - 1 year) target price of Shift Up is 95,510 won, which is 59% higher than the IPO price.</li>
<li>We recommend investors to take some profits (about 50% of invested capital) if the share price shoots higher by 100% or more from the IPO price on the first day. </li>
</ul>


In this insight, we discuss a trading strategy for Shift Up which starts trading on 11 July. Shift Up is one of the most anticipated IPOs in Korea this year.
Our base case (6 months - 1 year) target price of Shift Up is 95,510 won, which is 59% higher than the IPO price.
We recommend investors to take some profits (about 50% of invested capital) if the share price shoots higher by 100% or more from the IPO price on the first day. 


Trading Strategy of Shift Up on the First Day of IPO

Japan

SQUARE ENIX HOLDINGS CO., LTD. develops and sells entertainment software for home video game consoles including Dragon Quest and Final Fantasy series. The Company also publishes books such as informational guide books for its game software, and comic magazines and books.  Additionally, Square Enix sells character goods and stationery items from its software products.

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Square Enix Holdings (9684 JP)

Quiddity Mar25 Nikkei 225 Rebal: Likely 2 IN, 2 OUT; Lots of Movement but the Same Names

The Nikkei 225 is still likely 2 IN 2 OUT for Mar-25. Doing more would require a very large stock split for Shift (3697) or a stretch to push...

Travis Lundy

Gaming. Square Enix (9684 JP). 3 NOTABLE POSITIVES SO FAR IN OCTOBER. BIG MONTH AHEAD

Gaming award nominations and industry scores for FF7 Rebirth could boost sales during the holiday season. CQ4 releases may drive revenues higher...

Neil Campling

Quiddity Mar25 Nikkei 225 Rebal: Likely 2 IN, 2 OUT, Again; Minimal Surprise Factor

The Quiddity March 2025 Nikkei 225 Rebal Leaderboard. I see 2 in, 2 out. $3bn a side except if Fast Retailing outperforms N225 by 3%, in which case...

Travis Lundy

Mar25 Nikkei 225 Rebal Predictions: Likely 2 IN, 2 OUT, Again; Minimal Surprise Factor

The Sep24 Nikkei 225 Review suggests Nikkei Index Committee "discretion" hinting at the scale of the next rebalance. The most interesting bit may...

Travis Lundy

Trading Strategy of Shift Up on the First Day of IPO

Shift Up starts trading on 11 July. We recommend investors to take some profits (about 50% of invested capital) if the share price shoots higher by...

Douglas Kim

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Quiddity Mar25 Nikkei 225 Rebal: Likely 2 IN, 2 OUT; Lots of Movement but the Same Names

The Nikkei 225 is still likely 2 IN 2 OUT for Mar-25. Doing more would require a very large stock split for Shift (3697) or a stretch to push...

Travis Lundy

Gaming. Square Enix (9684 JP). 3 NOTABLE POSITIVES SO FAR IN OCTOBER. BIG MONTH AHEAD

​Gaming award nominations and industry scores for FF7 Rebirth could boost sales during the holiday season. CQ4 releases may drive revenues higher...

Neil Campling

Quiddity Mar25 Nikkei 225 Rebal: Likely 2 IN, 2 OUT, Again; Minimal Surprise Factor

The Quiddity March 2025 Nikkei 225 Rebal Leaderboard. I see 2 in, 2 out. $3bn a side except if Fast Retailing outperforms N225 by 3%, in which case...

Travis Lundy

Mar25 Nikkei 225 Rebal Predictions: Likely 2 IN, 2 OUT, Again; Minimal Surprise Factor

The Sep24 Nikkei 225 Review suggests Nikkei Index Committee "discretion" hinting at the scale of the next rebalance. The most interesting bit may...

Travis Lundy

Trading Strategy of Shift Up on the First Day of IPO

Shift Up starts trading on 11 July. We recommend investors to take some profits (about 50% of invested capital) if the share price shoots higher by...

Douglas Kim

Gaming award nominations and industry scores for FF7 Rebirth could boost sales during the holiday season. CQ4 releases may drive revenues higher...