Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>The coming week has the rebalance implementation for the NIFTY family of indices on Thursday and the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nikkei-225" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22909:1" rel="noopener">Nikkei 225 (NKY INDEX)</a> on Friday.</li>
<li>The review period for the December rebalance of the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hong-kong-hang-seng-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22899:1" rel="noopener">Hang Seng Index</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hang-seng-china-enterprises-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22900:1" rel="noopener">Hang Seng China Enterprises Index</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hang-seng-tech-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31367:1" rel="noopener">Hang Seng TECH Index</a> and the HSCI Index ends on Friday.</li>
<li>Inflows to mainland China ETFs resumed following a pause as markets continue to trade weak.</li>
</ul>


The coming week has the rebalance implementation for the NIFTY family of indices on Thursday and the Nikkei 225 (NKY INDEX) on Friday.
The review period for the December rebalance of the Hang Seng Index, Hang Seng China Enterprises Index, Hang Seng TECH Index and the HSCI Index ends on Friday.
Inflows to mainland China ETFs resumed following a pause as markets continue to trade weak.


Index Rebalance & ETF Flow Recap: HSI, HSCI, ASX, SET50, Wharf, SK Tel, Tata Motors, Midea, PCOMP

<ul>
<li>There could be two changes for the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/stock-exchange-of-thailand-set-50-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31493:1" rel="noopener">SET50 INDEX</a> with <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jmt-network-services-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8581:1" rel="noopener">JMT Network Services (JMT TB)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/i-tail-corp-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36428:1" rel="noopener">I-TAIL (ITC TB)</a> replacing <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/srisawad-corp-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:9480:1" rel="noopener">Srisawad Power (SAWAD TB)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ngern-tid-lor-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31103:1" rel="noopener">Ngern Tid Lor (TIDLOR TB)</a>. </li>
<li>With no further inclusions on the Market Surveillance Measure list, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/delta-electronics-thai-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20912:1" rel="noopener">Delta Electronics Thai (DELTA TB)</a> should be safe at the December rebalance.</li>
<li>There are a couple of stocks that are close to passing/failing the liquidity tests and that could result in further changes to the index.</li>
</ul>


There could be two changes for the SET50 INDEX with JMT Network Services (JMT TB) and I-TAIL (ITC TB) replacing Srisawad Power (SAWAD TB) and Ngern Tid Lor (TIDLOR TB). 
With no further inclusions on the Market Surveillance Measure list, Delta Electronics Thai (DELTA TB) should be safe at the December rebalance.
There are a couple of stocks that are close to passing/failing the liquidity tests and that could result in further changes to the index.


SET50 Index Rebalance Preview: Two Potential Changes in December

Head of Research, Krungthai XSpring

Waraporn Wiboonkanarak

Head of Research

A full service Thai brokerage

Krungthai XSpring

Krungthai XSpring is a full service broker. The company provides a wide range of investment services such as Securities Brokerage, Derivative Agent Business, Securities Borrowing and Lending, Securities Trading, Underwriting, Financial Advisory, Wealth Advisory, Private Fund Management and International Markets Securities Trading. 

In terms of credibility, Fitch Ratings has assigned Krunghtai XSpring a long-term rating of AA- and a national short-term rating of F1+ with stable outlook.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>We expect Thai inflation to continue easing from May to August, driven down by the high base effect and lower oil prices.</li><li>The Ministry of Commerce (MoC) anticipates 2023E inflation at a mean of +2.2% YoY (range of 1.7-2.7%), slowing considerably from +6.1% YoY in 2022.</li><li>We expect the MPC to continue raising the policy interest rate by 25 bps to 2.00% in the meeting on May 31, 2023, which should be the last rate hike in this upcycle. </li></ul>

We expect Thai inflation to continue easing from May to August, driven down by the high base effect and lower oil prices.The Ministry of Commerce (MoC) anticipates 2023E inflation at a mean of +2.2% YoY (range of 1.7-2.7%), slowing considerably from +6.1% YoY in 2022.We expect the MPC to continue raising the policy interest rate by 25 bps to 2.00% in the meeting on May 31, 2023, which should be the last rate hike in this upcycle. 

Special Report: Inflation Remains on a Downtrend

Index Rebal Trades & Special Situations, Quiddity Advisors

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Index Rebal Trades & Special Situations

Quiddity Advisors

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

<ul>
<li>In this insight, we take a look at the potential ADDs/DELs for the SET50 index rebalance in June 2023.</li>
<li>Based on the latest available data, I expect 2 ADDs/DELs but there are couple of names close to the border and final rankings could change with changes in share prices.</li>
<li>The three-month reference period used for the June 2023 rebalance will end on 31st May 2022.</li>
</ul>


In this insight, we take a look at the potential ADDs/DELs for the SET50 index rebalance in June 2023.
Based on the latest available data, I expect 2 ADDs/DELs but there are couple of names close to the border and final rankings could change with changes in share prices.
The three-month reference period used for the June 2023 rebalance will end on 31st May 2022.


Quiddity Leaderboard for SET50 Jun 23 Review: TLI ADD & JMART DEL Likely; BJC Is a Question Mark

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/srisawad-corp-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:9480:1" rel="noopener">Srisawad Power 1979 (SAWAD TB)</a> has been added to the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/stock-exchange-of-thailand-set-50-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31493:1" rel="noopener">SET50 INDEX</a> following the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/total-access-communication" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:948:1" rel="noopener">Total Access Communication (DTAC TB)</a> / <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/true-corp-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8:1" rel="noopener">True Corp Pcl (TRUE TB)</a> merger.</li>
<li>Passive <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/stock-exchange-of-thailand-set-50-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31493:1" rel="noopener">SET50 INDEX</a> trackers will need to buy 9.7m shares (THB 534m; 1x ADV) of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/srisawad-corp-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:9480:1" rel="noopener">Srisawad Power 1979 (SAWAD TB)</a> at the close of trading today.</li>
<li>There could be two more changes in June with relatively new listings, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/thai-life-insurance" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:34915:1" rel="noopener">Thai Life Insurance (TLI TB)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/betagro-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36222:1" rel="noopener">Betagro (BTG TB)</a>, being added to the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/stock-exchange-of-thailand-set-50-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31493:1" rel="noopener">SET50 INDEX</a>.</li>
</ul>



Srisawad Power 1979 (SAWAD TB) has been added to the SET50 INDEX following the Total Access Communication (DTAC TB) / True Corp Pcl (TRUE TB) merger.
Passive SET50 INDEX trackers will need to buy 9.7m shares (THB 534m; 1x ADV) of Srisawad Power 1979 (SAWAD TB) at the close of trading today.
There could be two more changes in June with relatively new listings, Thai Life Insurance (TLI TB) and Betagro (BTG TB), being added to the SET50 INDEX.


SET50 Index Rebalance: SAWAD Added; Buying at the Close Today

Thailand

Srisawad Corporation Public Company Limited operates as a consumer finance company. The Company provides personal secured loans, home loans, loans for international labors, and other related financial products. Srisawad offers its products and services to retail clients in Thailand.

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Srisawad Power 1979 (SAWAD TB)

Index Rebalance & ETF Flow Recap: HSI, HSCI, ASX, SET50, Wharf, SK Tel, Tata Motors, Midea, PCOMP

This recap highlights Insights covering Asian index rebalances (announcements/ forecasts/ IPO Fast Entry/ M&A driven changes). We also highlight...

Brian Freitas

SET50 Index Rebalance Preview: Two Potential Changes in December

There could be 2 changes for the SET50 in Dec. With a couple of stocks close to liquidity thresholds, there could be more changes. DELTA should be...

Brian Freitas

Special Report: Inflation Remains on a Downtrend

The Ministry of Commerce (MoC) anticipates 2023E inflation at a mean of +2.2% YoY (range of 1.7-2.7%), slowing considerably from +6.1% YoY in 2022.

Krungthai XSpring

Quiddity Leaderboard for SET50 Jun 23 Review: TLI ADD & JMART DEL Likely; BJC Is a Question Mark

Currently, Thai Life Insurance and Berli Jucker are ADDs and Jaymart PCL and Ngern Tid Lor are DELs in June 2023. Potential ADD WHA Corp and...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

SET50 Index Rebalance: SAWAD Added; Buying at the Close Today

SAWAD will be added to the SET50 index at the close today following the DTAC/TRUE merger. TLI and BTG could then replace JMART and TIDLOR in June,...

Brian Freitas

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