ASEAN Insight Provider, CrossASEAN Research

Angus Mackintosh

ASEAN Insight Provider

CrossASEAN Research

At CrossASEAN Research we strive to produce unbiased and differentiated on the ground insights on companies across South East Asia. Our Research is produced for the most part after face to face meetings and conversations with company management to dig deep into the long term vision and strategy of the companies we cover. We seek to deliver investable and actionable themes on sectors and markets across SE Asia, often in collaboration with other Insight Providers across the region, pooling the vast experience of the analysts within the Smartkarma Ecosystem. We also offer bespoke work and tailor made trips for our clients. 

Insights across South East Asia

Equity Bottom-Up

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<p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bfi-finance-indonesia-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8447:1" rel="noopener">BFI Finance Indonesia (BFIN IJ)</a>released its 3Q2021 results this week which saw its 9M2021 new bookings increase +72.7% YoY or +4.2% QoQ, reflecting a new normal situation versus last year when new booking had virtually ground to a halt. All the same, this performance was impressive given the backdrop of Emergency PPKM measures impacting mobility.</p>
<p>3Q2021 performance was relatively robust given that the country was in the midst of Emergency PPKM during the quarter with a stronger recovery taking place in September. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bf-investment-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:9276:1" rel="noopener"></a></p>
<p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bfi-finance-indonesia-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8447:1" rel="noopener">BFI Finance Indonesia (BFIN IJ)</a> profitability remained healthy with its interest spread at 11.3%, with the cost of funds steady at 8.5%, making it very competitive versus competition.</p>
<p>The company's NCL ratio declined significantly QoQ but slightly higher than last year, as a result of more repossessions and collateral disposals. </p>
<p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bfi-finance-indonesia-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8447:1" rel="noopener">BFI Finance Indonesia (BFIN IJ)</a> continues to make good progress on restructured loans with 86.8% of restructured loans reverting to normal status as of the end of 9M2021.<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bfi-finance-indonesia-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8447:1" rel="noopener"></a></p>
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<p>The company continues to develop its digital capabilities and has been developing its fintech push through Pinjam Modal and it has also launched BFI Connect, which is an open API platform, which can be integrated into other platforms such as e-commerce.</p>
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<p>The key message from <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bfi-finance-indonesia-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8447:1" rel="noopener">BFI Finance Indonesia (BFIN IJ)</a> management was that the company is moving back towards a growth trajectory, with new booking improving and receivables seeing higher repayments. We continue to see <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bfi-finance-indonesia-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8447:1" rel="noopener">BFI Finance Indonesia (BFIN IJ)</a> as the most interesting multi finance company in Indonesia, with a strong risk management culture and with the potential to generate higher ROEs as the market recovers. </p>
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BFI Finance Indonesia (BFIN IJ)released its 3Q2021 results this week which saw its 9M2021 new bookings increase +72.7% YoY or +4.2% QoQ, reflecting a new normal situation versus last year when new booking had virtually ground to a halt. All the same, this performance was impressive given the backdrop of Emergency PPKM measures impacting mobility.
3Q2021 performance was relatively robust given that the country was in the midst of Emergency PPKM during the quarter with a stronger recovery taking place in September. 
BFI Finance Indonesia (BFIN IJ) profitability remained healthy with its interest spread at 11.3%, with the cost of funds steady at 8.5%, making it very competitive versus competition.
The company's NCL ratio declined significantly QoQ but slightly higher than last year, as a result of more repossessions and collateral disposals. 
BFI Finance Indonesia (BFIN IJ) continues to make good progress on restructured loans with 86.8% of restructured loans reverting to normal status as of the end of 9M2021.



The company continues to develop its digital capabilities and has been developing its fintech push through Pinjam Modal and it has also launched BFI Connect, which is an open API platform, which can be integrated into other platforms such as e-commerce.

The key message from BFI Finance Indonesia (BFIN IJ) management was that the company is moving back towards a growth trajectory, with new booking improving and receivables seeing higher repayments. We continue to see BFI Finance Indonesia (BFIN IJ) as the most interesting multi finance company in Indonesia, with a strong risk management culture and with the potential to generate higher ROEs as the market recovers. 




BFI Finance Indonesia (BFIN IJ) - Shining Through in a Difficult Period

Asian bank research and consultancy, Tabbush Report

Daniel Tabbush

Asian bank research and consultancy

Tabbush Report

We provide research and consultancy on Asian banks. Our focus is on what we call “Asian bank research, without the noise.” We are interested in the most critical swing-factors for banks, the NPL and credit cycle, and where we believe there is a gap between perception and reality. We often focus on the less studied components of bank financial statements.  Our research is highly thematic, sometimes examining unlisted banks and companies as a window on mainstream banks. 

Being independent allows us to look at smaller banks, often overlooked by others. Analysis of BIS bank guidelines in the context of Asia, is also a focal point, while we also analyze global banks operating in the region. We use what we believe is the most comprehensive, reliable financials database, SNL Financial. S&P Capital IQ augments our database, with corporate data and CEIC, with economics. 

Asian bank research, without the noise.

<p>Of Australia’s largest banks, there are few that reveal improving core net interest income. Macquarie is unique in this respect and further enters the current period of inflation, recovery with far higher assets. </p>

Of Australia’s largest banks, there are few that reveal improving core net interest income. Macquarie is unique in this respect and further enters the current period of inflation, recovery with far higher assets. 

Macquarie – Don’t You Forget About Me

Postal Savings Bank of China C / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>NIM is continuing to decline, from ~2.5% at its recent peak to ~1.8% in the most recent quarter. This may be from higher rescheduled loans. </li>
<li>Loan growth ascent is strangely steady, and not indicative at all, of any business cycle. This alone is a concern, for true visibility of figures. </li>
<li>Impairment costs do not suggest concern on underlying credit metrics, but with far higher loan balances in the past few years, this is an even greater worry.</li>
</ul>


NIM is continuing to decline, from ~2.5% at its recent peak to ~1.8% in the most recent quarter. This may be from higher rescheduled loans. 
Loan growth ascent is strangely steady, and not indicative at all, of any business cycle. This alone is a concern, for true visibility of figures. 
Impairment costs do not suggest concern on underlying credit metrics, but with far higher loan balances in the past few years, this is an even greater worry.


China Postal Savings Bank - Lower NIM, But Steady Lending & Credit Costs Suggests All Is Fine?

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>US large banks weekly data shows loan growth now turning to negative, not a positive outlook for bank earnings or core income</li>
<li>C&amp;I loan growth is more negative than other major segments, suggesting limited demand, but also risk-aversion by banks</li>
<li>Even where Jumbo Time Deposits growth is now only 59% YoY there is still likely to be major pressure on banks' funding costs</li>
</ul>


US large banks weekly data shows loan growth now turning to negative, not a positive outlook for bank earnings or core income
C&amp;I loan growth is more negative than other major segments, suggesting limited demand, but also risk-aversion by banks
Even where Jumbo Time Deposits growth is now only 59% YoY there is still likely to be major pressure on banks' funding costs


US Banks - HFD Shows Loan Growth Turning Negative Just Now, with C&I Worsening the Most

<ul>
<li>The bank's announcement that it expects at least a 30% decline in profit due to impairments is rare, in its clarity, not unexpected in the content.</li>
<li>There may be gaining momentum for banks in Greater China to more clearly show their credit metrics, which given economies there, are not likely to be positive. </li>
<li>Credit costs to loans have been in decline at this bank, and the surge they are forecasting, is understandable; perhaps partly given developments at China Evergrande?</li>
</ul>


The bank's announcement that it expects at least a 30% decline in profit due to impairments is rare, in its clarity, not unexpected in the content.
There may be gaining momentum for banks in Greater China to more clearly show their credit metrics, which given economies there, are not likely to be positive. 
Credit costs to loans have been in decline at this bank, and the surge they are forecasting, is understandable; perhaps partly given developments at China Evergrande?


Bank of Jiujiang - Rare Announcement Expecting at Least 30% Profit Decline

United Kingdom

Standard Chartered PLC is an international banking group operating principally in Asia, Africa, and the Middle East. The Company offers its products and services in the personal, consumer, corporate, institutional and treasury areas.

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Standard Chartered (STAN LN)

BFI Finance Indonesia (BFIN IJ) - Shining Through in a Difficult Period

We continue to see BFI Finance Indonesia as the premier multi finance company in Indonesia, with a strong risk management culture and with the...

Angus Mackintosh

Macquarie – Don’t You Forget About Me

There are few banks that reveal improving core net interest income. Macquarie is unique in this respect and further enters the current period of...

Daniel Tabbush

China Postal Savings Bank - Lower NIM, But Steady Lending & Credit Costs Suggests All Is Fine?

China Postal Savings Bank shows far higher loans with almost no increase of impairment costs. NIM reduction is radical, we wonder if this is partly...

Daniel Tabbush

US Banks - HFD Shows Loan Growth Turning Negative Just Now, with C&I Worsening the Most

Looking at HFD of US large banks we see loan growth suddenly turning negative, with C&I growth the most negative. Large time deposit growth 59% YoY...

Daniel Tabbush

Bank of Jiujiang - Rare Announcement Expecting at Least 30% Profit Decline

Bank of Jiujiang announced that its profit would be at least 30% lower for FY23 due to worsening credit metrics. This is incredibly rare to see...

Daniel Tabbush

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