Research and consultancy, Tabbush Report

Daniel Tabbush

Research and consultancy

Tabbush Report

We provide research and consultancy on Asian banks. Our focus is on what we call “Asian bank research, without the noise.” We are interested in the most critical swing-factors for banks, the NPL and credit cycle, and where we believe there is a gap between perception and reality. We often focus on the less studied components of bank financial statements.  Our research is highly thematic, sometimes examining unlisted banks and companies as a window on mainstream banks. 

Being independent allows us to look at smaller banks, often overlooked by others. Analysis of BIS bank guidelines in the context of Asia, is also a focal point, while we also analyze global banks operating in the region. We use what we believe is the most comprehensive, reliable financials database, SNL Financial. S&P Capital IQ augments our database, with corporate data and CEIC, with economics. 

Asian bank research, without the noise.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Real estate lending growth in Hong Kong remains weak and now at lowest growth rate in the HKMA series since early FY05</li>
<li>Deposits are overwhelming HK's banks with LDR now moving to 55% in April FY25, nearly the lowest on record from HKMA series</li>
<li>Capital flight risk on the HK currency is also more severe than in the past, at any time, with FX reserves at 1.6x , well below past levels</li>
</ul>


Real estate lending growth in Hong Kong remains weak and now at lowest growth rate in the HKMA series since early FY05
Deposits are overwhelming HK's banks with LDR now moving to 55% in April FY25, nearly the lowest on record from HKMA series
Capital flight risk on the HK currency is also more severe than in the past, at any time, with FX reserves at 1.6x , well below past levels


Hong Kong Banks - Weak Property Lending Weakens More, Aggressive LDR Fall, Expect Poor Profit

<ul>
<li>Strong weekly data from the CP market and from granular loan data of US banks</li>
<li>C&amp;I type lending is also included in the CP market and other loans to FI's</li>
<li>Loans to other FI's is up 21% YoY and C&amp;I lending, reached a new high since early FY24</li>
</ul>


Strong weekly data from the CP market and from granular loan data of US banks
C&amp;I type lending is also included in the CP market and other loans to FI's
Loans to other FI's is up 21% YoY and C&amp;I lending, reached a new high since early FY24


US Banks - Granular Weekly Data Suggest C&I Is Robust, Underlying Economy, Credit Metrics

Asia Real Estate News Tracker, Asia Real Estate Tracker

Asia Real Estate Tracker

Asia Real Estate News Tracker

Tracking developments across Asia's regional real estate markets

Equity Bottom-Up

Tokyu Fudosan Holdings / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>ESR, Tokyu Land, and Hulic have begun construction on a new shed in Singapore, helping to boost the real estate market in the region.</li><li>Analysts predict that the drop in the Hong Kong interbank rate will have a positive impact on the market, leading to increased activity.</li><li>China has cut housing loan rates to a record low in an effort to stimulate growth in the market, demonstrating proactive measures to support the economy.</li></ul>

ESR, Tokyu Land, and Hulic have begun construction on a new shed in Singapore, helping to boost the real estate market in the region.Analysts predict that the drop in the Hong Kong interbank rate will have a positive impact on the market, leading to increased activity.China has cut housing loan rates to a record low in an effort to stimulate growth in the market, demonstrating proactive measures to support the economy.

Asia Real Estate Tracker (13-May-2025): ESR, Tokyu Land, Hulic break ground on SG shed

<ul>
<li>In the last week of April, US banks saw USD22bn higher 'loans to non-depository financial institutions. Much of this will be C&amp;I through private credit. </li>
<li>Total cash holdings moved down in the same week from USD3,240bn to USD3,072bn, marking a significant delta in risk aversion - toward risk, not away.</li>
<li>Deposits are still high at USD18,058bn which can move back into markets, where non-large time deposits appear to be doing this, over month of April</li>
</ul>


In the last week of April, US banks saw USD22bn higher 'loans to non-depository financial institutions. Much of this will be C&amp;I through private credit. 
Total cash holdings moved down in the same week from USD3,240bn to USD3,072bn, marking a significant delta in risk aversion - toward risk, not away.
Deposits are still high at USD18,058bn which can move back into markets, where non-large time deposits appear to be doing this, over month of April


US Banks - Last Week of April Saw $22bn Loan Rise, With Cash Down $168bn

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/standard-chartered-plc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:193:1" rel="noopener">Standard Chartered (STAN LN)</a> results are most interesting, like with <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hsbc-holdings-plc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:516:1" rel="noopener">HSBC Holdings (5 HK)</a> , for what they show on specific regions</li>
<li>STAN reports in its HK region credit costs rising to USD89m in 1Q25 fromUSD39m YoY. This is now 41% of group credit costs from 22% YoY</li>
<li>Grade 12 loans are of low quality, not yet NPL. These are up 78% YoY and similar rise QoQ. There is no clear geo detail on this high delta</li>
</ul>



Standard Chartered (STAN LN) results are most interesting, like with HSBC Holdings (5 HK) , for what they show on specific regions
STAN reports in its HK region credit costs rising to USD89m in 1Q25 fromUSD39m YoY. This is now 41% of group credit costs from 22% YoY
Grade 12 loans are of low quality, not yet NPL. These are up 78% YoY and similar rise QoQ. There is no clear geo detail on this high delta


STAN - Window on HK Worsening, but Also Group Grade 12 Loans up 78% YoY

United Kingdom

Standard Chartered PLC is an international banking group operating principally in Asia, Africa, and the Middle East. The Company offers its products and services in the personal, consumer, corporate, institutional and treasury areas.

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Standard Chartered (STAN LN)

Hong Kong Banks - Weak Property Lending Weakens More, Aggressive LDR Fall, Expect Poor Profit

Property lending in Hong Kong weakens further in most recent data, to most negative growth rate seen in the HKMA time series. LDR falling further....

Daniel Tabbush

US Banks - Granular Weekly Data Suggest C&I Is Robust, Underlying Economy, Credit Metrics

There is good new high-frequency data from US banks and the Commercial Paper market suggesting a strong underlying economy for core C&I credit.

Daniel Tabbush

Asia Real Estate Tracker (13-May-2025): ESR, Tokyu Land, Hulic break ground on SG shed

Construction of a shed in Singapore by ESR, Tokyu Land, and Hulic begins while a drop in Hong Kong interbank rates and China's record-low housing...

Asia Real Estate Tracker

US Banks - Last Week of April Saw $22bn Loan Rise, With Cash Down $168bn

Weekly data from US banks shows very strong rise in loans to other FIs and an exceptionally strong decline in total cash assets. View this...

Daniel Tabbush

STAN - Window on HK Worsening, but Also Group Grade 12 Loans up 78% YoY

Standard Chartered shows significant deterioration in quarterly credit costs, worsening in Hong Kong region credit costs, and in Grade 12 loans

Daniel Tabbush

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