Research and consultancy, Tabbush Report

Daniel Tabbush

Research and consultancy

Tabbush Report

We provide research and consultancy on Asian banks. Our focus is on what we call “Asian bank research, without the noise.” We are interested in the most critical swing-factors for banks, the NPL and credit cycle, and where we believe there is a gap between perception and reality. We often focus on the less studied components of bank financial statements.  Our research is highly thematic, sometimes examining unlisted banks and companies as a window on mainstream banks. 

Being independent allows us to look at smaller banks, often overlooked by others. Analysis of BIS bank guidelines in the context of Asia, is also a focal point, while we also analyze global banks operating in the region. We use what we believe is the most comprehensive, reliable financials database, SNL Financial. S&P Capital IQ augments our database, with corporate data and CEIC, with economics. 

Asian bank research, without the noise.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>HKMA data shows the loss loan ratio in HK is up 7.5x from FY19 to 2Q25. These are the worst of the worst bad loans </li>
<li>Substandard loan ratio in HK is up 4.7x over the same period, and this bucket can gradually migrate to worse buckets, requiring more credit costs</li>
<li>Overdue loan ratio and rescheduled loan ratio in HK is up 5.4x over this period, and these are not technically NPLs</li>
</ul>


HKMA data shows the loss loan ratio in HK is up 7.5x from FY19 to 2Q25. These are the worst of the worst bad loans 
Substandard loan ratio in HK is up 4.7x over the same period, and this bucket can gradually migrate to worse buckets, requiring more credit costs
Overdue loan ratio and rescheduled loan ratio in HK is up 5.4x over this period, and these are not technically NPLs


HSBC - Loss Loans up 7.5x from FY19 to 2Q25 in HKMA Industry Data. Hang Seng Bank Buyout, Now?

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>We remain near-term bullish since our 4/22/25 Compass, and our intermediate-term outlook remains bullish as well (as of our 5/14/25 Compass), with Int’l Compass reports all echoing this sentiment</li>
<li>Our bullish near-term outlook will remain in place as long as the 6-month uptrend continues on ACWI-US, which generally coincides with the 50-day MA.</li>
<li>Short-Term supports to watch on ACWI-US include the 6-month uptrend (currently at $139.40), the 50-day MA (currently $137.95), and $135.70.</li>
</ul>


We remain near-term bullish since our 4/22/25 Compass, and our intermediate-term outlook remains bullish as well (as of our 5/14/25 Compass), with Int’l Compass reports all echoing this sentiment
Our bullish near-term outlook will remain in place as long as the 6-month uptrend continues on ACWI-US, which generally coincides with the 50-day MA.
Short-Term supports to watch on ACWI-US include the 6-month uptrend (currently at $139.40), the 50-day MA (currently $137.95), and $135.70.


Expecting Upside to Continue into Early-2026 for Global Equities $ACWI

Asset Allocation & Fund Positioning, Copley Fund Research

Steven Holden

Asset Allocation & Fund Positioning

Copley Fund Research

Copley Fund Research provide research and data on asset allocation among Global and Emerging Market equity funds.  The analysis details absolute and relative positioning across countries, sectors and industries together with highly granular data on single stock and single fund allocations.  The data is updated monthly with time series going back to January 2011.

Global Research - Analysis of 165 prominent Global equity funds, combined AUM $335bn
GEM Research - Analysis of 127 prominent global EM equity funds, combined AUM $250bn

Asset Allocation - Global and GEM Equity

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>Active UK funds gained +11.75% through Q3, lagging the FTSE All Share ETF’s +15.9%—a 4.15% gap, with nearly 75% of managers underperforming.</li>
<li>Value strategies led returns (+16.6%), while Aggressive Growth funds averaged just +4.5%.</li>
<li>Key underweights in Rolls-Royce, HSBC, BAE Systems and BATS cost roughly 3% in relative performance.</li>
</ul>


Active UK funds gained +11.75% through Q3, lagging the FTSE All Share ETF’s +15.9%—a 4.15% gap, with nearly 75% of managers underperforming.
Value strategies led returns (+16.6%), while Aggressive Growth funds averaged just +4.5%.
Key underweights in Rolls-Royce, HSBC, BAE Systems and BATS cost roughly 3% in relative performance.


UK Active Funds Face a Benchmark Blowout in 2025

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>We focus on the worsening credit metrics at HSBC, especially where stage 2 loan growth is not being matched by ECL</li>
<li>There appears to be great deterioration in 3Q25 alone for its HK and CH commercial real estate lending, just as it raises its investment in Hang Seng Bank</li>
<li>With migration from stage 2 to stage 3 in some regions being likely, there is every likelihood that HSBC will see continued high growth in credit costs</li>
</ul>


We focus on the worsening credit metrics at HSBC, especially where stage 2 loan growth is not being matched by ECL
There appears to be great deterioration in 3Q25 alone for its HK and CH commercial real estate lending, just as it raises its investment in Hang Seng Bank
With migration from stage 2 to stage 3 in some regions being likely, there is every likelihood that HSBC will see continued high growth in credit costs


HSBC - 3Q25 Results Are Out, Major Deterioration in Credit Metrics

<ul>
<li>The decision to invest a large sum of money to increase Hong Kong and Mainland China banking exposure, seems oddly timed</li>
<li>There is no exceptional discount to drive this decision, and there is unlikely to be any major resumption former times</li>
<li>Granular data on credit metrics from HSB shows marked weakness, deterioration, and with privatization, we may only see this data one more time.</li>
</ul>


The decision to invest a large sum of money to increase Hong Kong and Mainland China banking exposure, seems oddly timed
There is no exceptional discount to drive this decision, and there is unlikely to be any major resumption former times
Granular data on credit metrics from HSB shows marked weakness, deterioration, and with privatization, we may only see this data one more time.


HSBC - Privatization of Hang Seng Bank Should Mean Limits on Granular Credit Metrics After 2H25

United Kingdom

Standard Chartered PLC is an international banking group operating principally in Asia, Africa, and the Middle East. The Company offers its products and services in the personal, consumer, corporate, institutional and treasury areas.

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Standard Chartered (STAN LN)

HSBC - Loss Loans up 7.5x from FY19 to 2Q25 in HKMA Industry Data. Hang Seng Bank Buyout, Now?

HSBC is increasing its investment in HSB as loss loan ratio is HK is rising by 7.5x from FY19 to 2Q25, and high growth in other buckets, makes...

Daniel Tabbush

Expecting Upside to Continue into Early-2026 for Global Equities $ACWI

Expecting Upside to Continue into Early-2026 for Global Equities $ACWI. Discussed Thursday to expect support at the 50-day MA. Actionable Themes:...

Vermilion Research

UK Active Funds Face a Benchmark Blowout in 2025

Active UK funds trail the benchmark by 4% YTD. Value managers outperform, but missed calls on Rolls-Royce, HSBC, and BAE Systems weigh heavily on...

Steven Holden

HSBC - 3Q25 Results Are Out, Major Deterioration in Credit Metrics

With 3Q25 results out just over 1 hour ago, we can see clearly, major deterioration in credit metrics, especially stage 2 loans and relative growth...

Daniel Tabbush

HSBC - Privatization of Hang Seng Bank Should Mean Limits on Granular Credit Metrics After 2H25

$1.1bn hit from Madoff fraud. None of this is positive for HSBC. There can be increased operational risk req. Front office managers are likely to...

Daniel Tabbush

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