IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>A weekly summary of key developments across ECM and Event-Driven names tracked by us across Hong Kong, Australia, New Zealand, Singapore, Japan, Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand, Korea, India and Chinese ADRs.</li>
<li>ECM developments - <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/i-tail-corp-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36428:1" rel="noopener">I-Tail (ITC TB)</a> is set to launch it's up to US$600 million SET IPO. </li>
<li>Event-Driven developments - <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/toshiba-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:637:1" rel="noopener">Toshiba Corp (6502 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/uzabase-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27798:1" rel="noopener">Uzabase Inc (3966 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/united-fiber-system-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20826:1" rel="noopener">Golden Energy &amp; Resources (GER SP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/perpetual-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:599:1" rel="noopener">Perpetual Ltd (PPT AU)</a>/<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/pendal-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15795:1" rel="noopener">Pendal Group (PDL AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/origin-energy-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:797:1" rel="noopener">Origin Energy (ORG AU)</a>.   </li>
</ul>


A weekly summary of key developments across ECM and Event-Driven names tracked by us across Hong Kong, Australia, New Zealand, Singapore, Japan, Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand, Korea, India and Chinese ADRs.
ECM developments - I-Tail (ITC TB) is set to launch it's up to US$600 million SET IPO. 
Event-Driven developments - Toshiba Corp (6502 JP), Uzabase Inc (3966 JP), Golden Energy &amp; Resources (GER SP), Perpetual Ltd (PPT AU)/Pendal Group (PDL AU), Origin Energy (ORG AU).   


Weekly Deals Digest (13 Nov) - Toshiba, Uzabase, Origin Energy, Perpetual, Golden Energy, I-Tail

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/united-fiber-system-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20826:1" rel="noopener">Golden Energy &amp; Resources (GER SP)</a> has proposed in-specie-ing its holding in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/golden-energy-mines-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16150:1" rel="noopener">Golden Energy Mines (GEMS IJ)</a>, subsequent to which the Widjaja family will undertake an Exit Offer.</li>
<li>Ex-GEMS, the family is Offering S$0.16/share. That's insulting. And the Offer was announced after GEAR's share price had fallen 26%.  The Exit Offer has been declared final.</li>
<li>GEAR's jewel is the stake in GEMS, and shareholders are afforded future exposure. However, the stub ops are worth considerably more than S$0.16/share. </li>
</ul>



Golden Energy &amp; Resources (GER SP) has proposed in-specie-ing its holding in Golden Energy Mines (GEMS IJ), subsequent to which the Widjaja family will undertake an Exit Offer.
Ex-GEMS, the family is Offering S$0.16/share. That's insulting. And the Offer was announced after GEAR's share price had fallen 26%.  The Exit Offer has been declared final.
GEAR's jewel is the stake in GEMS, and shareholders are afforded future exposure. However, the stub ops are worth considerably more than S$0.16/share. 


Golden Energy (GER SP): Widjaja Family's Low-Balled Offer

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/united-fiber-system-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20826:1" rel="noopener">Golden Energy &amp; Resources (GER SP)</a>'s proposal from the Widjaja family - The distribution proposal (1.3936 GEMS share per share or IDR5,500 per GEMS share) and the delisting proposal (S$0.160).</li>
<li>For minorities, the good news is that the distribution share ratio is in line with the control ratio and offers are at a premium to historical share prices/multiples. </li>
<li>The bad news is that the distribution cash alternative is unattractive and the delisting offer values GEAR at a discount to the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/stanmore-coal-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15252:1" rel="noopener">Stanmore Coal (SMR AU)</a> stake adjusted for debt.</li>
</ul>



Golden Energy &amp; Resources (GER SP)'s proposal from the Widjaja family - The distribution proposal (1.3936 GEMS share per share or IDR5,500 per GEMS share) and the delisting proposal (S$0.160).
For minorities, the good news is that the distribution share ratio is in line with the control ratio and offers are at a premium to historical share prices/multiples. 
The bad news is that the distribution cash alternative is unattractive and the delisting offer values GEAR at a discount to the Stanmore Coal (SMR AU) stake adjusted for debt.


Golden Energy & Resources (GER SP)’s Lacking Offer from the Widjaja Family

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/united-fiber-system-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20826:1" rel="noopener">Golden Energy &amp; Resources (GER SP)</a>, an Indonesian/Australian energy/met coal play, may be subject to an acquisition from its controlling shoulder, the Widjaja Family.</li>
<li>GEAR reported 1H22 (to June) earnings of US$279mn, an 859% gain yoy, as contributions from the newly acquired stake in an Australian coal mine from <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bhp-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:147:1" rel="noopener">BHP (BHP AU)</a> kicked in.</li>
<li>The family is potentially betting on one to two more years of outsized cashflow as the world's coal habit remains healthy.</li>
</ul>



Golden Energy &amp; Resources (GER SP), an Indonesian/Australian energy/met coal play, may be subject to an acquisition from its controlling shoulder, the Widjaja Family.
GEAR reported 1H22 (to June) earnings of US$279mn, an 859% gain yoy, as contributions from the newly acquired stake in an Australian coal mine from BHP (BHP AU) kicked in.
The family is potentially betting on one to two more years of outsized cashflow as the world's coal habit remains healthy.


Golden Energy & Resources: Widjaja Family Betting Ridiculous Cashflow Continues

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>The ACCC will not oppose the proposed acquisition of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/link-administration-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:970:1" rel="noopener">Link Administration (LNK AU)</a> by Dye &amp; Durham removing a major hurdle. Other regulatory approvals are still pending.</li>
<li>If regulatory clearances are received in the next week and the Court approves the Scheme, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/link-administration-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:970:1" rel="noopener">Link Administration (LNK AU)</a> will stop trading at the close on 15 September.</li>
<li>We estimate passive trackers across all indices will need to sell 35.53m shares (A$153m; 18 days of ADV) of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/link-administration-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:970:1" rel="noopener">Link Administration (LNK AU)</a> at the close on 15 September.</li>
</ul>


The ACCC will not oppose the proposed acquisition of Link Administration (LNK AU) by Dye &amp; Durham removing a major hurdle. Other regulatory approvals are still pending.
If regulatory clearances are received in the next week and the Court approves the Scheme, Link Administration (LNK AU) will stop trading at the close on 15 September.
We estimate passive trackers across all indices will need to sell 35.53m shares (A$153m; 18 days of ADV) of Link Administration (LNK AU) at the close on 15 September.


Link Admin (LNK AU): ACCC Approval & Index Changes

Australia

Stanmore Coal Ltd. explores for coal in Australia. The Company's interests include a portfolio of coal assets within Queensland's Bowen and Surat Basin coal provinces.

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Stanmore Coal (SMR AU)

Weekly Deals Digest (13 Nov) - Toshiba, Uzabase, Origin Energy, Perpetual, Golden Energy, I-Tail

Last week, notable developments occurred in Event-Driven (Toshiba, Uzabase, Origin Energy, Perpetual, Pendal, Genex, Jinke, Golden Energy,...

Arun George

Golden Energy (GER SP): Widjaja Family's Low-Balled Offer

Trading at gross spread of 5.1% to the cash terms. I'd still look to enter around here. If, or should, coal prices roll over, you have a hard cash...

David Blennerhassett

Golden Energy & Resources (GER SP)’s Lacking Offer from the Widjaja Family

The proposal contains both good and bad parts for minorities. The delisting price has not been declared final. At the last close, the spread is...

Arun George

Golden Energy & Resources: Widjaja Family Betting Ridiculous Cashflow Continues

The Widjaja family may envisage one to two years of bumper times ahead. From a longer-term analysis, GEAR is not expensive, especially taking into...

David Blennerhassett

Link Admin (LNK AU): ACCC Approval & Index Changes

With ACCC approval done, the focus shifts to the UK FCA approval. If all reg approvals are obtained, the stock will stop trading on 15 Sep. MND and...

Brian Freitas

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