IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Event-Driven

Golden Energy and Resources / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/united-fiber-system-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20826:1" rel="noopener">Golden Energy &amp; Resources (GER SP)</a>'s proposal from the Widjaja family - The distribution proposal (1.3936 GEMS share per share or IDR5,500 per GEMS share) and the delisting proposal (S$0.160).</li>
<li>For minorities, the good news is that the distribution share ratio is in line with the control ratio and offers are at a premium to historical share prices/multiples. </li>
<li>The bad news is that the distribution cash alternative is unattractive and the delisting offer values GEAR at a discount to the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/stanmore-coal-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15252:1" rel="noopener">Stanmore Coal (SMR AU)</a> stake adjusted for debt.</li>
</ul>



Golden Energy &amp; Resources (GER SP)'s proposal from the Widjaja family - The distribution proposal (1.3936 GEMS share per share or IDR5,500 per GEMS share) and the delisting proposal (S$0.160).
For minorities, the good news is that the distribution share ratio is in line with the control ratio and offers are at a premium to historical share prices/multiples. 
The bad news is that the distribution cash alternative is unattractive and the delisting offer values GEAR at a discount to the Stanmore Coal (SMR AU) stake adjusted for debt.


Golden Energy & Resources (GER SP)’s Lacking Offer from the Widjaja Family

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/united-fiber-system-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20826:1" rel="noopener">Golden Energy &amp; Resources (GER SP)</a>, an Indonesian/Australian energy/met coal play, may be subject to an acquisition from its controlling shoulder, the Widjaja Family.</li>
<li>GEAR reported 1H22 (to June) earnings of US$279mn, an 859% gain yoy, as contributions from the newly acquired stake in an Australian coal mine from <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bhp-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:147:1" rel="noopener">BHP (BHP AU)</a> kicked in.</li>
<li>The family is potentially betting on one to two more years of outsized cashflow as the world's coal habit remains healthy.</li>
</ul>



Golden Energy &amp; Resources (GER SP), an Indonesian/Australian energy/met coal play, may be subject to an acquisition from its controlling shoulder, the Widjaja Family.
GEAR reported 1H22 (to June) earnings of US$279mn, an 859% gain yoy, as contributions from the newly acquired stake in an Australian coal mine from BHP (BHP AU) kicked in.
The family is potentially betting on one to two more years of outsized cashflow as the world's coal habit remains healthy.


Golden Energy & Resources: Widjaja Family Betting Ridiculous Cashflow Continues

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>The ACCC will not oppose the proposed acquisition of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/link-administration-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:970:1" rel="noopener">Link Administration (LNK AU)</a> by Dye &amp; Durham removing a major hurdle. Other regulatory approvals are still pending.</li>
<li>If regulatory clearances are received in the next week and the Court approves the Scheme, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/link-administration-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:970:1" rel="noopener">Link Administration (LNK AU)</a> will stop trading at the close on 15 September.</li>
<li>We estimate passive trackers across all indices will need to sell 35.53m shares (A$153m; 18 days of ADV) of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/link-administration-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:970:1" rel="noopener">Link Administration (LNK AU)</a> at the close on 15 September.</li>
</ul>


The ACCC will not oppose the proposed acquisition of Link Administration (LNK AU) by Dye &amp; Durham removing a major hurdle. Other regulatory approvals are still pending.
If regulatory clearances are received in the next week and the Court approves the Scheme, Link Administration (LNK AU) will stop trading at the close on 15 September.
We estimate passive trackers across all indices will need to sell 35.53m shares (A$153m; 18 days of ADV) of Link Administration (LNK AU) at the close on 15 September.


Link Admin (LNK AU): ACCC Approval & Index Changes

<ul>
<li>There are 4 trading days to go in the review period for the September rebalance of the S&amp;P/ASX indices. Announcement is on 2 September with implementation on 16 September.</li>
<li>There could be 6 changes to the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/s-p-asx-200" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22901:1" rel="noopener">S&amp;P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX)</a>, increasing to 8 if <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/avz-minerals-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6148:1" rel="noopener">AVZ Minerals (AVZ AU)</a> continues to be halted and if <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/link-administration-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:970:1" rel="noopener">Link Administration (LNK)</a> is privatised.</li>
<li>The potential adds have outperformed the potential deletes over the last month. Short interest has increased on a few potential deletes. There will be pre-positions built up.</li>
</ul>


There are 4 trading days to go in the review period for the September rebalance of the S&amp;P/ASX indices. Announcement is on 2 September with implementation on 16 September.
There could be 6 changes to the S&amp;P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX), increasing to 8 if AVZ Minerals (AVZ AU) continues to be halted and if Link Administration (LNK) is privatised.
The potential adds have outperformed the potential deletes over the last month. Short interest has increased on a few potential deletes. There will be pre-positions built up.


S&P/​​​​ASX Index Rebalance Preview: Adds Outperform Deletes As Review Period End Nears

Index Rebal/Special Situations, Quiddity Advisors

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Index Rebal/Special Situations

<ul>
<li>In this insight, we take a look at the potential index changes for S&amp;P ASX 300, 200, 100, 50, and 20 in the September 2022 Rebalance.</li>
<li>In addition to the Regular Rebalance changes, M&amp;A events involving <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/uniti-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29042:1" rel="noopener">Uniti Group Ltd (UWL AU)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/link-administration-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:970:1" rel="noopener">Link Administration (LNK AU)</a>could also cause index changes during this quarter.</li>
<li>The historical price and volume performance of high conviction ADDs/DELs and potential LONG-SHORT trade ideas involving these names are also discussed in this insight.</li>
</ul>


In this insight, we take a look at the potential index changes for S&amp;P ASX 300, 200, 100, 50, and 20 in the September 2022 Rebalance.
In addition to the Regular Rebalance changes, M&amp;A events involving Uniti Group Ltd (UWL AU) and Link Administration (LNK AU)could also cause index changes during this quarter.
The historical price and volume performance of high conviction ADDs/DELs and potential LONG-SHORT trade ideas involving these names are also discussed in this insight.


S&P/​​​​​ASX Quiddity Leaderboard Sep 2022: Uniti Deletion & Many Other Changes for ASX 200 & 300

Australia

Stanmore Coal Ltd. explores for coal in Australia. The Company's interests include a portfolio of coal assets within Queensland's Bowen and Surat Basin coal provinces.

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Stanmore Coal (SMR AU)

Golden Energy & Resources (GER SP)’s Lacking Offer from the Widjaja Family

The proposal contains both good and bad parts for minorities. The delisting price has not been declared final. At the last close, the spread is...

Arun George

Golden Energy & Resources: Widjaja Family Betting Ridiculous Cashflow Continues

The Widjaja family may envisage one to two years of bumper times ahead. From a longer-term analysis, GEAR is not expensive, especially taking into...

David Blennerhassett

Link Admin (LNK AU): ACCC Approval & Index Changes

With ACCC approval done, the focus shifts to the UK FCA approval. If all reg approvals are obtained, the stock will stop trading on 15 Sep. MND and...

Brian Freitas

S&P/ASX Index Rebalance Preview: Adds Outperform Deletes As Review Period End Nears

There are a LOT of potential changes to the S&P/ASX indices as we near the end of the review period. The potential adds have outperformed the...

Brian Freitas

S&P/ASX Quiddity Leaderboard Sep 2022: Uniti Deletion & Many Other Changes for ASX 200 & 300

Uniti Group could get deleted from the ASX 200 and ASX 300 in July 2022. The potential replacement names could be very high impact index inclusion...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Golden Energy & Resources (GER SP)’s Lacking Offer from the Widjaja Family

The proposal contains both good and bad parts for minorities. The delisting price has not been declared final. At the last close, the spread is...

Arun George

Golden Energy & Resources: Widjaja Family Betting Ridiculous Cashflow Continues

The Widjaja family may envisage one to two years of bumper times ahead. From a longer-term analysis, GEAR is not expensive, especially taking into...

David Blennerhassett

Link Admin (LNK AU): ACCC Approval & Index Changes

With ACCC approval done, the focus shifts to the UK FCA approval. If all reg approvals are obtained, the stock will stop trading on 15 Sep. MND and...

Brian Freitas

S&P/​​​​ASX Index Rebalance Preview: Adds Outperform Deletes As Review Period End Nears

There are a LOT of potential changes to the S&P/ASX indices as we near the end of the review period. The potential adds have outperformed the...

Brian Freitas

S&P/​​​​​ASX Quiddity Leaderboard Sep 2022: Uniti Deletion & Many Other Changes for ASX 200 & 300

Uniti Group could get deleted from the ASX 200 and ASX 300 in July 2022. The potential replacement names could be very high impact index inclusion...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

S&P/ASX Index Rebalance Preview: Adds Outperform Deletes As Review Period End Nears

S&P/ASX Quiddity Leaderboard Sep 2022: Uniti Deletion & Many Other Changes for ASX 200 & 300