HK/China Equity Long-Short

Osbert Tang, CFA

Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mixue-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:40623:1" rel="noopener">Mixue Group (MIX HK)</a> has a whopping market share of 32.7% in 2023, based on number of cups sold. It also has the highest profit in the sector.</li>
<li>With a strong profit record and net cash, it is a leader that captures industry growth. Its extensive network targets low-tier cities' potential and the franchise model drives expansion.  </li>
<li>It justifies trading on a premium to sector average PER of 19.6x for FY25. If aligning P/B with ROE on the best-fit line, it should be priced at 5.1x pre-money.</li>
</ul>



Mixue Group (MIX HK) has a whopping market share of 32.7% in 2023, based on number of cups sold. It also has the highest profit in the sector.
With a strong profit record and net cash, it is a leader that captures industry growth. Its extensive network targets low-tier cities' potential and the franchise model drives expansion.  
It justifies trading on a premium to sector average PER of 19.6x for FY25. If aligning P/B with ROE on the best-fit line, it should be priced at 5.1x pre-money.


MIXUE Group IPO: The Leading Player that Justifies a Premium

Independent research on the U.S. markets, Baptista Research

Baptista Research

Independent research on the U.S. markets

Baptista Research is an independent financial research house focused on the U.S. markets. We provide equity research as well as credit research reports on the top-listed U.S. companies with most of our focus on technology, consumer goods and services, automobiles, industrials, oil and gas, pharma, and healthcare. Our research has served more than 3000 institutional investors including mutual funds, hedge funds, banks, family offices, and various buy-side firms. We operate a research subscription service where institutions, as well as retail investors, can have priority access to all our research. We also have a wide distribution of our research reports across some of the top global financial platforms. Apart from equity research and credit research, we also provide advisory services with respect to mergers & acquisitions (M&A), private equity/ venture capital fundraising, valuation reports, and investment management services for corporates.
Baptista Research is owned and managed by Ishan Majumdar, an ex-Venture Capitalist/ Investment Banker, a Chartered Accountant, and a Masters’ degree holder in Management from HEC Paris. Ishan has nearly a decade of experience in Mergers and Acquisitions, Leveraged Buyouts (LBOs), Venture Capital Investing, Corporate Strategy, and Valuation in front-office roles at the likes of BNP Paribas CIB, Credit Agricole CIB, Groupe Danone, and TIW Private Equity. He has worked on and closed multiple acquisition deals, leveraged buyouts, and start-up investment transactions.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>Starbucks Corporation recently reported its first-quarter fiscal year 2025 results, revealing key insights into its current business performance and strategic direction.</li><li>The company registered revenue of $9.4 billion, a result that was flat compared to the previous year.</li><li>This came alongside a 4% decline in global comparable store sales, a global operating margin of 11.9%, and an earnings per share (EPS) of $0.69.</li></ul>

Starbucks Corporation recently reported its first-quarter fiscal year 2025 results, revealing key insights into its current business performance and strategic direction.The company registered revenue of $9.4 billion, a result that was flat compared to the previous year.This came alongside a 4% decline in global comparable store sales, a global operating margin of 11.9%, and an earnings per share (EPS) of $0.69.

Overseas Chinese Equities, Aequitas Research

Ming Lu

Overseas Chinese Equities

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

<ul>
<li>Starbucks’ CEO of China denied the rumor that Starbucks will sell its Chinese businesses.</li>
<li>Chow Tai Fook closed 239 stores from March to September.</li>
<li>SAIC and Volkswagen will extend their joint venture to 2040.</li>
</ul>


Starbucks’ CEO of China denied the rumor that Starbucks will sell its Chinese businesses.
Chow Tai Fook closed 239 stores from March to September.
SAIC and Volkswagen will extend their joint venture to 2040.


China Consumption Weekly (2 Dec 2024): Starbucks, Chow Tai Fook, SAIC, Volkswagen, BYD

Equity Analyst - Asia Consumer Sector, Investory

Devi Subhakesan

Equity Analyst - Asia Consumer Sector

ASIA CONSUMER: INSIGHTS AND INVESTMENT IDEAS

Investory

Investory is a Singapore-based boutique independent equity research firm founded in January 2017 with a primary focus on consumption themes across Asia-Pacific.

We aim to generate investible ideas based on consumption trends and outlook. We screen our ideas on several parameters - product potential, long-term growth and management commitment being the most critical.  We follow a fundamental analysis approach in our stock selection process and are not restricted by market cap.

We aspire to grow into a leading source of unbiased research, free of conflict of interest, for investors yearning for independent and disciplined analysis. 

We also undertake bespoke research mandates to support our Institutional clients’ investment needs.

Our team comprises of professionals with extensive experience in the Asian equity markets, in areas ranging from research, servicing institutional clients and investment management.

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/luckin-coffee-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28046:1" rel="noopener">Luckin Coffee (LKNCY US)</a> reported another quarter of strong growth and is now China’s leading coffee chain by a wide margin with operating margins outperforming even premium rival <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/starbucks-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7641:1" rel="noopener">Starbucks Corp(SBUX US)</a> .</li>
<li>Luckin’s disruptive model—centered on affordability, convenience, and accessibility—and the competition that followed has fueled a 2.5X rise in China’s per capita coffee consumption over the past five years.</li>
<li>​Luckin Coffee's strong growth, high operating margins, dominant market share contrasts with Starbucks, which is now adapting to changing customer preference for convenience and digital experiences.</li>
</ul>



Luckin Coffee (LKNCY US) reported another quarter of strong growth and is now China’s leading coffee chain by a wide margin with operating margins outperforming even premium rival Starbucks Corp(SBUX US) .
Luckin’s disruptive model—centered on affordability, convenience, and accessibility—and the competition that followed has fueled a 2.5X rise in China’s per capita coffee consumption over the past five years.
​Luckin Coffee's strong growth, high operating margins, dominant market share contrasts with Starbucks, which is now adapting to changing customer preference for convenience and digital experiences.


Luckin Coffee: Acing It in China's Racing Coffee Market

<ul><li>Starbucks recently reported disappointing fourth-quarter results, with earnings and revenue falling short of analysts’ expectations due to lackluster sales in its core markets, the U.S. and China.</li><li>CEO Brian Niccol, who took the helm in September, has pledged swift action to address the challenges the company faces, with a clear emphasis on reshaping Starbucks’ operational strategy.</li><li>He aims to attract customers back by implementing a new plan that includes faster service, with a target of delivering drinks within four minutes, and restoring the familiar condiment bars that were removed during the pandemic.</li></ul>

Starbucks recently reported disappointing fourth-quarter results, with earnings and revenue falling short of analysts’ expectations due to lackluster sales in its core markets, the U.S. and China.CEO Brian Niccol, who took the helm in September, has pledged swift action to address the challenges the company faces, with a clear emphasis on reshaping Starbucks’ operational strategy.He aims to attract customers back by implementing a new plan that includes faster service, with a target of delivering drinks within four minutes, and restoring the familiar condiment bars that were removed during the pandemic.

Starbucks in Trouble? Inside the CEO’s Radical Strategy to Win Back Customers

United States

Starbucks Corporation retails, roasts, and provides its own brand of specialty coffee. The Company operates retail locations worldwide and sells whole bean coffees through its sales group, direct response business, supermarkets, and on the World Wide Web. Starbucks also produces and sells bottled coffee drinks and a line of ice creams.

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Starbucks Corp (SBUX US)

MIXUE Group IPO: The Leading Player that Justifies a Premium

Mixue has a 32.7% share in the freshly-made drinks market and the highest profit, poised for growth in low-tier cities with the franchise model....

Osbert Tang, CFA

Starbucks' Sales Decline

Starbucks Corporation recently reported its first-quarter fiscal year 2025 results, revealing key insights into its current business performance...

Baptista Research

China Consumption Weekly (2 Dec 2024): Starbucks, Chow Tai Fook, SAIC, Volkswagen, BYD

Starbucks’ CEO of China denied the rumor that Starbucks will sell its Chinese businesses. Chow Tai Fook closed 239 stores. SAIC and Volkswagen will...

Ming Lu

Luckin Coffee: Acing It in China's Racing Coffee Market

Luckin Coffee's strong growth, high operating margins, dominant market share contrasts with Starbucks, which is now adapting to changing customer...

Devi Subhakesan

Starbucks in Trouble? Inside the CEO’s Radical Strategy to Win Back Customers

Starbucks recently reported disappointing fourth-quarter results, with earnings and revenue falling short of analysts’ expectations due to...

Baptista Research

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

MIXUE Group IPO: The Leading Player that Justifies a Premium

​Mixue has a 32.7% share in the freshly-made drinks market and the highest profit, poised for growth in low-tier cities with the franchise model....

Osbert Tang, CFA

Starbucks' Sales Decline

Starbucks Corporation recently reported its first-quarter fiscal year 2025 results, revealing key insights into its current business performance...

Baptista Research

China Consumption Weekly (2 Dec 2024): Starbucks, Chow Tai Fook, SAIC, Volkswagen, BYD

Starbucks’ CEO of China denied the rumor that Starbucks will sell its Chinese businesses. Chow Tai Fook closed 239 stores. SAIC and Volkswagen will...

Ming Lu

Luckin Coffee: Acing It in China's Racing Coffee Market

​Luckin Coffee's strong growth, high operating margins, dominant market share contrasts with Starbucks, which is now adapting to changing customer...

Devi Subhakesan

Starbucks in Trouble? Inside the CEO’s Radical Strategy to Win Back Customers

Starbucks recently reported disappointing fourth-quarter results, with earnings and revenue falling short of analysts’ expectations due to...

Baptista Research

Mixue has a 32.7% share in the freshly-made drinks market and the highest profit, poised for growth in low-tier cities with the franchise model....

Luckin Coffee's strong growth, high operating margins, dominant market share contrasts with Starbucks, which is now adapting to changing customer...