HK/China Healthcare Analyst (ex-Fosun Pharma)

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>Chagee is seeking up to US$411 million by offering nearly 14.7 million ADS priced between US$26 and US$28 each, with market value to reach about US$4.8-US$5.1 billion.</li>
<li>Chagee is facing performance headwinds. Whether the current high growth of Chagee is sustainable in the future is uncertain. This makes us tend to be conservative in Chagee’s valuation expectations </li>
<li>Based on our forecast, P/E is about 11.5-12.3x if based on 2025 net profit. Such valuation is attractive, but "valuation discount" may occur due to market turmoil and geopolitical conflicts.</li>
</ul>


Chagee is seeking up to US$411 million by offering nearly 14.7 million ADS priced between US$26 and US$28 each, with market value to reach about US$4.8-US$5.1 billion.
Chagee is facing performance headwinds. Whether the current high growth of Chagee is sustainable in the future is uncertain. This makes us tend to be conservative in Chagee’s valuation expectations 
Based on our forecast, P/E is about 11.5-12.3x if based on 2025 net profit. Such valuation is attractive, but "valuation discount" may occur due to market turmoil and geopolitical conflicts.


Pre-IPO Chagee Holdings - IPO Pricing Is Attractive, But Share Price May Underperform

Equity Analyst - Asia Consumer Sector, Investory

Devi Subhakesan

Equity Analyst - Asia Consumer Sector

ASIA CONSUMER: INSIGHTS AND INVESTMENT IDEAS

Investory

Investory is a Singapore-based boutique independent equity research firm founded in January 2017 with a primary focus on consumption themes across Asia-Pacific.

We aim to generate investible ideas based on consumption trends and outlook. We screen our ideas on several parameters - product potential, long-term growth and management commitment being the most critical.  We follow a fundamental analysis approach in our stock selection process and are not restricted by market cap.

We aspire to grow into a leading source of unbiased research, free of conflict of interest, for investors yearning for independent and disciplined analysis. 

We also undertake bespoke research mandates to support our Institutional clients’ investment needs.

Our team comprises of professionals with extensive experience in the Asian equity markets, in areas ranging from research, servicing institutional clients and investment management.

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/chagee-holdings-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:45011:1" rel="noopener">Chagee Holdings (CHA US)</a> is offering 14.68 million shares for USD26 to USD28 each to raise upto USD411 million in its initial public offering in the US.</li>
<li>Chagee's premium branded teahouses blend traditional tea culture with modern, tech-driven service, distinctly setting itself apart from bubble tea kiosks. </li>
<li>Chagee's IPO is priced at a discount to forward valuations of recently listed (in HK) China-based freshly brewed drinks players and leading Cafe companies.</li>
</ul>



Chagee Holdings (CHA US) is offering 14.68 million shares for USD26 to USD28 each to raise upto USD411 million in its initial public offering in the US.
Chagee's premium branded teahouses blend traditional tea culture with modern, tech-driven service, distinctly setting itself apart from bubble tea kiosks. 
Chagee's IPO is priced at a discount to forward valuations of recently listed (in HK) China-based freshly brewed drinks players and leading Cafe companies.


Chagee IPO: Luckin X Starbucks of Tea. Pricing, Valuation, Key Facts & Financials

<ul>
<li>The main reason behind declining performance is related to the increase in regional market density brought about by newly opened teahouses. Franchisees would be more cautious about investing in Chagee.</li>
<li>With the passage of time and the declining same store GMV, the low teahouse closure rate will gone. Product strategy of "flagship product + classic basics " also has risks.</li>
<li>Based on our forecast of 2025 net profit of about RMB3 billion (or US$400 million) and US IPO market value of US$5 billion, P/E is about 12.5x. </li>
</ul>


The main reason behind declining performance is related to the increase in regional market density brought about by newly opened teahouses. Franchisees would be more cautious about investing in Chagee.
With the passage of time and the declining same store GMV, the low teahouse closure rate will gone. Product strategy of "flagship product + classic basics " also has risks.
Based on our forecast of 2025 net profit of about RMB3 billion (or US$400 million) and US IPO market value of US$5 billion, P/E is about 12.5x. 


Pre-IPO Chagee Holdings - Some Points Worth the Attention

<ul>
<li>Chagee adopts the "1+1+9+N" business model, which ensures the successful replication of the single store model. However, we saw performance decline in 2024, and future performance growth sustainability is uncertain.</li>
<li>In terms of valuation, comparable companies include Starbucks and MIXUE. We think valuation of Chagee should be lower than MIXUE and Starbucks as both have proved themselves in the industry.</li>
<li>Future growth would inevitably slow down. Investors may need more 'safety margins' on valuation because despite short-term strong demand, investors need to be alert to the performance validation after IPO.  </li>
</ul>


Chagee adopts the "1+1+9+N" business model, which ensures the successful replication of the single store model. However, we saw performance decline in 2024, and future performance growth sustainability is uncertain.
In terms of valuation, comparable companies include Starbucks and MIXUE. We think valuation of Chagee should be lower than MIXUE and Starbucks as both have proved themselves in the industry.
Future growth would inevitably slow down. Investors may need more 'safety margins' on valuation because despite short-term strong demand, investors need to be alert to the performance validation after IPO.  


Pre-IPO Chagee Holdings - The Business Model, the Concerns Behind and Valuation Outlook

Oil and Gas, Mint Finance

Suhas Reddy

Oil and Gas

Deep Fundamental Analysis

Mint Finance

Mint Finance's investment research blends deep fundamental analysis with technical & quant insights. Investment strategies straddle across multiple asset classes with risk management embedded into every trade to deliver an outsized reward-to-risk ratio.

Mint Finance's research is centered around three key themes. First, energy transition and climate change. Second, artificial intelligence. Third, shifting world order with its impact across politics and monetary economics.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>BP will increase oil and gas spending to USD 10 billion annually through 2027, comprising 66%-70% of total capex, while slashing renewable energy investments by over USD 5 billion. </li>
<li>BP reduced its quarterly buybacks to USD 0.75–1 billion from USD 1.75 billion and lowered annual capex to USD 13–15 billion through 2027.  </li>
<li>Elliott Investment Management is reportedly dissatisfied with BP’s strategy reset, criticizing it for lacking urgency and ambition, potentially prompting further strategic adjustments from the company. </li>
</ul>


BP will increase oil and gas spending to USD 10 billion annually through 2027, comprising 66%-70% of total capex, while slashing renewable energy investments by over USD 5 billion. 
BP reduced its quarterly buybacks to USD 0.75–1 billion from USD 1.75 billion and lowered annual capex to USD 13–15 billion through 2027.  
Elliott Investment Management is reportedly dissatisfied with BP’s strategy reset, criticizing it for lacking urgency and ambition, potentially prompting further strategic adjustments from the company. 


BP’s Strategy Reset Stumbles as Dividend Cut, Oil & Gas Output Target Disappoints

United States

Starbucks Corporation retails, roasts, and provides its own brand of specialty coffee. The Company operates retail locations worldwide and sells whole bean coffees through its sales group, direct response business, supermarkets, and on the World Wide Web. Starbucks also produces and sells bottled coffee drinks and a line of ice creams.

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Starbucks Corp (SBUX US)

Chagee IPO: Luckin X Starbucks of Tea. Pricing, Valuation, Key Facts & Financials

Chagee - the premium teahouse chain - has priced its US IPO at US$26 to US$26, at a valuation discount to freshly made beverage players listed in...

Devi Subhakesan

Pre-IPO Chagee Holdings - Some Points Worth the Attention

With declining performance, franchisees are cautious about investing in Chagee. Due to sharp decline in US stocks, Chagee's IPO may not perform...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Pre-IPO Chagee Holdings - The Business Model, the Concerns Behind and Valuation Outlook

Chagee's "1+1+9+N" model face uncertain future growth and should be valued lower than peers.Due to concerns, investors need more safety margins on...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

BP’s Strategy Reset Stumbles as Dividend Cut, Oil & Gas Output Target Disappoints

BP plans to increase oil and gas spending while cutting back on renewable energy investments. Elliott Investment Management criticizes this...

Mint Finance

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52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

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Pre-IPO Chagee Holdings - IPO Pricing Is Attractive, But Share Price May Underperform

​Chagee's US IPO is attractively priced, but due to performance headwinds, we are conservative in valuation expectations. Share price may...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Chagee IPO: Luckin X Starbucks of Tea. Pricing, Valuation, Key Facts & Financials

Chagee - the premium teahouse chain - has priced its US IPO at US$26 to US$26, at a valuation discount to freshly made beverage players listed in...

Devi Subhakesan

Pre-IPO Chagee Holdings - Some Points Worth the Attention

With declining performance, franchisees are cautious about investing in Chagee. Due to sharp decline in US stocks, Chagee's IPO may not perform...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Pre-IPO Chagee Holdings - The Business Model, the Concerns Behind and Valuation Outlook

​Chagee's "1+1+9+N" model face uncertain future growth and should be valued lower than peers.Due to concerns, investors need more safety margins on...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

BP’s Strategy Reset Stumbles as Dividend Cut, Oil & Gas Output Target Disappoints

​BP plans to increase oil and gas spending while cutting back on renewable energy investments. Elliott Investment Management criticizes this...

Mint Finance

Chagee's US IPO is attractively priced, but due to performance headwinds, we are conservative in valuation expectations. Share price may...

Chagee's "1+1+9+N" model face uncertain future growth and should be valued lower than peers.Due to concerns, investors need more safety margins on...

BP plans to increase oil and gas spending while cutting back on renewable energy investments. Elliott Investment Management criticizes this...